"How China fooled the world" debt 200% of GDP

wotsthat

cells wrote: »

Over-building now in the UK now would be a fantastic thing and we can be sure of thr demand. The UK is heading for 70m before 2030 that means we need 35m homes yet only have 27.5m.

We could overbuild by 7.5m homes, leave them empty for 16 years and be all set for 2030? I've taken the argument to an extreme but it's certifiable.

Don't forget buildings have to be paid for and overbuilding means building houses that don't have a buyer or tenant - where's the money coming from?

2 people per house isn't a magic number. If we go ahead with this plan and it turns out people are willing to live in 'cramped' conditions i.e. 2.1 people per house and there's only 68m people then you've built 2.5m too many new homes.

We need plenty of housing to deal with today's housing shortage for sure. If more houses are needed in 16 years the best time to build them is in 16 years when the potential buyers and tenants have a better idea of where to put them and what they'll be able to afford.

cells

wotsthat wrote: »

We could overbuild by 7.5m homes, leave them empty for 16 years and be all set for 2030? I've taken the argument to an extreme but it's certifiable.

Don't forget buildings have to be paid for and overbuilding means building houses that don't have a buyer or tenant - where's the money coming from?

2 people per house isn't a magic number. If we go ahead with this plan and it turns out people are willing to live in 'cramped' conditions i.e. 2.1 people per house and there's only 68m people then you've built 2.5m too many new homes.

We need plenty of housing to deal with today's housing shortage for sure. If more houses are needed in 16 years the best time to build them is in 16 years when the potential buyers and tenants have a better idea of where to put them and what they'll be able to afford.

You can't build 7.5m homes this year even if you wanted to

but we could build 450k a year which is current need. To over build would be to build at a rate above this. Say at 550k a year.

That does not mean that you are building 100k homes a year to sit empty.
It means the occupancy rate will fall sooner.


Also I am not suggesting that we have to over build now. Only that it is hard to over build homes in a nation like the UK or china where occupancy rates need to fall. Any over building is easily consumed by an increasing population and the need for a lowrr occupancy rate

SunReader

...Even so, there are signs that deflationary forces are taking hold in China. Producer prices (PPI) fell by 2pc in February from a year earlier. Haibin Zhu, from JP Morgan, said it is “disturbing” the PPI index has been negative since November, a sign that China is struggling to cope with excess manufacturing plant.
China invested $5 trillion last year, as much as the US and Europe combined. There are already signs that the country is trying to export its over-capacity overseas by pushing down the yuan. If this amounts to a competitive devaluation policy, it risks sending a fresh deflationary impulse across the globe.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/10688667/Markets-hold-breath-as-Chinas-shadow-banking-grinds-to-a-halt.html


The writing is on the wall, I think the Chinese have got it very, very badly wrong.

TickersPlaysPop

Hi all

Is there an update in the situation in China? I haven't noticed any stories recently.

Cheers

Thrugelmir

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

Hi all

Is there an update in the situation in China? I haven't noticed any stories recently.

Cheers

This do you.

Media express optimism over China's growth after its economy expanded by 7.4% in the first quarter of the year.

The latest figure, released on Wednesday, is better than what many were expecting. However, it is a slowdown from 7.7% growth in the final quarter of last year, sparking fears that the decline might impact the global economy recovery.

Dismissing such concerns, the Beijing News says the slowdown is in a "reasonable range".

"China's economy is still growing at a high speed. The speed is the fastest growth among the main economies in the world, and the growth is in a reasonable range, so we should not feel uneasy if the figure falls below 7.5%," it explains.

Wang Jun, a senior researcher at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, notes that the authorities have been rolling out several plans including tax reductions, simplifying administrative processes and improving infrastructure in smaller towns and cities.

"These measures aim to stabilise growth. I think the economic momentum will increase from the second quarter and there's no need to worry that the economy will slide out of control," the Xinhua News Agency quotes him as saying.

The National Business Daily notes Premier Li Keqiang has ruled out major stimulus to fight short-term dips in growth, in a speech delivered last week.

Agreeing with the view, the daily adds that one should not relentlessly pursue high growth but instead focus on the quality of the progress.

"Some local governments who face the pressure of a slowdown might still wish to rely on investments to stimulate growth… When we keep returning to the old path and continue to idolise growth using the GDP, this is where the real crisis lies," it warns.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-27060662

rageagainstessays

Sorry, please define what you mean by 'debt'?

'debt' is too vague for me to do anything with.

TickersPlaysPop

rageagainstessays wrote: »

Sorry, please define what you mean by 'debt'?

'debt' is too vague for me to do anything with.

Hi

It would be great if you could enter into the debate, please watch short video on the situation in China...

http://www.bbd.co.uk/programmes/b03w7gxt

All of the info is there...

Cheers

antrobus

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

Hi

It would be great if you could enter into the debate, please watch short video on the situation in China...

http://www.bbd.co.uk/programmes/b03w7gxt

All of the info is there...

Cheers

No it isn't, it's a 404.

Anyway, why do people persist in posting links to videos without providing even the briefest summary of the argument they wish to make?

TickersPlaysPop

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

Hi all

I was surprised to not find a discussion thread about the BBC documentary on the Chinese economy. It is a must see for anybody making decisions about investments....

China has debt 200% of GDP... And rising.... It jumped 15 trillion US dollars in just 5 years..... So now you know how they built so many airports, apartments, roads, rail....etc

Video now not available on BBC, sorry folks.

The debt bubble moved from the west to China in 2008.... Who are now in debt to the tune of 200% of their GDP.... They had no choice when the west stopped buying their goods they had to borrow to build to keep the people in jobs and from civil unrest... Their borrowing hasn't stopped.... My question is .... who did China borrow from and who can prop up their banks when they fail? Maybe the west can shift their debts to China?

So maybe a world stock market crash around the corner, or a great opportunity for the west?

Here is my original post that started the thread.... See above

TickersPlaysPop

antrobus wrote: »

No it isn't, it's a 404.

Anyway, why do people persist in posting links to videos without providing even the briefest summary of the argument they wish to make?

TA DAaaaa!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fd5MyeqkuyE

It's all there in full.... Enjoy