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Debate House Prices
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"No Problem" with house prices?
grizzly1911
Posts: 9,965 Forumite
This is what the Prime Minister says but the figures tell a different story
The list of those who deny a property bubble grows longer and is not short of high-profile figures. One member of that club, David Cameron, the Prime Minister, strongly reaffirmed his membership of it this week.
"House prices are still way below the peak they reached in 2007," he said. "Forecasters do not think they will get back to the level before the crash even in 2019. So there is no evidence of a problem."
Despite that portrayal of calm, forecasters are turning more excitable on the issue, egged on by yet more positive signals. Research house IHS Global Insight, for one, made a prediction today that prices would grow by 8pc in 2014, but also warned of the "very real possibility that this could prove to be a conservative forecast",,,,
,,,,,Mr Cameron's claim about the market not making a full recovery for five years begins to look unlikely if this momentum is maintained. House prices are only 5pc below their 2007 peak and will sail through that high by the autumn if the IHS forecast is correct.
Presumably Mr Cameron was talking about house prices in "real" terms, after taking inflation into account. But even when you do allow for inflation, property prices are only 10pc lower than five years ago.
Even the Treasury's independent forecasting unit, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which forecasts up to 2019, believes house prices will streak ahead of inflation, rising by 5.2pc this year and 7.2pc next year.
Mr Cameron also refers to 2007 as if it is a measure of normality "house prices are still way below the peak they reached in 2007". But that year came at the tail end of an extraordinary episode in Britain's financial history.
The Telegraph
Now that Big Dave has said things ware fine it probably means they aren't. A bit like when he says a member of parliament has his full support seconds before the guy resigns .
The list of those who deny a property bubble grows longer and is not short of high-profile figures. One member of that club, David Cameron, the Prime Minister, strongly reaffirmed his membership of it this week.
"House prices are still way below the peak they reached in 2007," he said. "Forecasters do not think they will get back to the level before the crash even in 2019. So there is no evidence of a problem."
Despite that portrayal of calm, forecasters are turning more excitable on the issue, egged on by yet more positive signals. Research house IHS Global Insight, for one, made a prediction today that prices would grow by 8pc in 2014, but also warned of the "very real possibility that this could prove to be a conservative forecast",,,,
,,,,,Mr Cameron's claim about the market not making a full recovery for five years begins to look unlikely if this momentum is maintained. House prices are only 5pc below their 2007 peak and will sail through that high by the autumn if the IHS forecast is correct.
Presumably Mr Cameron was talking about house prices in "real" terms, after taking inflation into account. But even when you do allow for inflation, property prices are only 10pc lower than five years ago.
Even the Treasury's independent forecasting unit, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which forecasts up to 2019, believes house prices will streak ahead of inflation, rising by 5.2pc this year and 7.2pc next year.
Mr Cameron also refers to 2007 as if it is a measure of normality "house prices are still way below the peak they reached in 2007". But that year came at the tail end of an extraordinary episode in Britain's financial history.
The Telegraph
Now that Big Dave has said things ware fine it probably means they aren't. A bit like when he says a member of parliament has his full support seconds before the guy resigns .
"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
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Comments
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Strange statistics, in one sentence prices are compared to peak in nominal terms, in the next they are compared to 5 years ago in real terms...I think....0
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Maybe the Telegraph just can't be bothered to go and find the news so are just sticking to the tried and tested house prices and the weather.0
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Hmmm. Here's what Howard Archer was saying 10 months ago:
http://www.rpclandandnewhomes.co.uk/house-prices-up-for-fifth-successive-month/Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “The small rise in house prices in February reported by the Nationwide ties in with our view that house prices will be essentially flat over the 2013 – as extended low interest rates and the likely increasing beneficial impact of the Funding for Lending scheme in supporting mortgage lending are countered by still difficult economic conditions.
“However, it is very possible that house prices could eke out a modest gain over 2013 – although it remains hard to see house prices making any decisive move upward in 2013 given the still difficult economic environment.”If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
It's the airspace they are giving to roll out the mantra that everything is just fine that's worrying.
Any prime minister having to go to the media and on the TV to state everything is fine is a worried old chap!
It's a bit like when the chairman of the co-op organised a press release with the media in order to tell us the bank was just fine and didn't need a bailout. 3 months later, they are negotiating the terms of a rescue. You could just see it coming as they had gone to so much trouble to deny it.....and yes, I did state that at the time of the initial press release on here!0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »It's the airspace they are giving to roll out the mantra that everything is just fine that's worrying.
Any prime minister having to go to the media and on the TV to state everything is fine is a worried old chap!
There are more cuts in spending to come. The government are going to have a problem pushing them through if they agree that the economy is booming.
Perversely it's the doom mongers getting over-excited about the first signs of a pick up that are going to derail their own agenda if they're not careful.0 -
Over 10 years they are only up around 20% now as an average.
The boom days are well and truly receding into history.0
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