Another plan to critique

kidmugsy

mgdavid wrote: »

Thanks; I'd looked at deferring SP but my IFA is against it (he is of the 'get your hands on it as soon as possible' mindset...

John Maynard Keynes in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Chapter 12: ‘Human nature desires quick results, there is a peculiar zest in making money quickly, and remoter gains are discounted by the average man at a very high rate.’

But you do pay him in hopes that he's a bit brighter than the average man.

Wilkins

kidmugsy wrote: »

You don't happen to know the annualised figure for the 1970s, do you?

It reports 14.1%.

Wilkins

jamesd wrote: »

The 2014 projections at some interesting ages for males are:

Thanks, 30 years seems about right for me, but my model is OK for 45 in fact.

jamesd

Do remember that life expectancy is the age that is exceeded by half of the population, though. You really do need more than 30 years if 30 is the relevant life expectancy. 45 should be plenty on this measure, provided you're also giving ample margin for market variability.

mgdavid

kidmugsy wrote: »

John Maynard Keynes in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Chapter 12: ‘Human nature desires quick results, there is a peculiar zest in making money quickly, and remoter gains are discounted by the average man at a very high rate.’

But you do pay him in hopes that he's a bit brighter than the average man.

quite; but I view the IFA as another sounding board. The intention is to learn a bit, take some views and thoughts from here, come to a tentative conclusion, then innocently ask the question and see if the same answer is arrived at.

Wilkins

jamesd wrote: »

Do remember that life expectancy is the age that is exceeded by half of the population, though.

Technically, I'm not sure that is correct, in that LE is not a median but a mean (though it may well be similar value). But yes, your point is well made: there is a great deal of possible variation, both in health and market peformance.

jamesd

I think it is the median but I couldn't find a clear statement. Do you happen to know of one?

Wilkins

jamesd wrote: »

I think it is the median but I couldn't find a clear statement. Do you happen to know of one?

From the Wikipedia article on Life Expectancy:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#Calculating_life_expectancies


Life expectancy is by definition an arithmetic mean. It can also be calculated by integrating the survival curve from ages 0 to positive infinity (or equivalently to the maximum lifespan, sometimes called 'omega'). For an extinct or completed cohort (all people born in year 1850, for example), of course, it can simply be calculated by averaging the ages at death. For cohorts with some survivors, it is estimated by using mortality experience in recent years. These estimates are called period cohort life expectancies.

jamesd

That's what is written at Wikipedia but mean is what I'd have used unless I'd previously seen something from the ONS to suggest that median is correct in this case. But I didn't find it again in a quick search.