Nationwide Nov: +0.6% MoM + 6.5% YoY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

-UK house prices increased by 0.6% in November and were 6.5% higher than November 2012

-House prices around 6% below 2007 peak

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/nationwide.co.uk/pdf/hpi/Nov_2013.pdf

So the recovery is nowhere near complete yet, but slow and steady progress in the right direction.

Very good news for society and the wider economy.

:beer:

blinko

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/525912/20131128/bank-england-fls-help-buy-sme-finance.htm

Bank of England withdraws cheap mortgage funding.

Now the help to buyers are even more vulnerable.

next to be withdrawn is help to buy and then an increase in interest rates

The withdrawal of these will increase the cost of borrowing and require buyers to have larger deposits as a result expect downward pressure on house prices.

note to editor interest rates are expected to rise in 2015

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/nationwide.co.uk/pdf/hpi/Nov_2013.pdf

So the recovery is nowhere near complete yet, but slow and steady progress in the right direction.

Very good news for society and the wider economy.

:beer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAeMtcURg0

michaels

blinko wrote: »

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/525912/20131128/bank-england-fls-help-buy-sme-finance.htm

Bank of England withdraws cheap mortgage funding.

Now the help to buyers are even more vulnerable.

next to be withdrawn is help to buy and then an increase in interest rates

The withdrawal of these will increase the cost of borrowing and require buyers to have larger deposits as a result expect downward pressure on house prices.

note to editor interest rates are expected to rise in 2015

The objective is to support the banks by avoiding repossessions with negative equity and to support the economy via the wealth effect, housing transactions etc.

If withdrawing support and increasing interest rates results in falling prices, a stagnant market and banks teetering then why would they do this, I can't see it being in any politicians interest?

Surely the withdrawal of these schemes suggests an expectation that the market can support itself without them?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

Surely the withdrawal of these schemes suggests an expectation that the market can support itself without them?

Absolutely.

We can expect more of these schemes and supports to be withdrawn as the recovery continues to strengthen.

As Carney said, FLS is no longer necessary, once HTB is no longer necessary it too can be withdrawn.

And as unemployment continues to fall, economic growth accelerates, and wages start to increase, then rates can rise as well.

All very good news.

Loughton_Monkey

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

......All very good news.

I would normally say "wonderful", Hamish. "Large gin & tonics all round", but there are some gurus around here that are contradicting this....

Apparently, we are reminded of a 70% imminent fall by the reputable "70% Club", and our Graham is [STRIKE]apparently [/STRIKE]'delighted' about the withdrawal of FFL.

Can you get any more reputable sources than these?

[STRIKE]I would imagine that[/STRIKE] Graham must, by now, be in a hypnotic trance - has fallen from his tiny little wooden stool - foaming at the mouth - hyperventilating - predicting a fall of 3% every month throughout the whole of 2014, as Carney (in a vindictive and personal vendetta against Osborne) strangles the lifeblood of mortage funds and restricts mortgages to 0.5 X Salary, with a maximum LTV of 10%, at an interest rate of 33.7%....

We're all dooooooooooommmmmmmmmmed....

.... outsized hair shirts all round.....

Generali

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

I would normally say "wonderful", Hamish. "Large gin & tonics all round", but there are some gurus around here that are contradicting this....

Apparently, we are reminded of a 70% imminent fall by the reputable "70% Club", and our Graham is [STRIKE]apparently [/STRIKE]'delighted' about the withdrawal of FFL.

Can you get any more reputable sources than these?

[STRIKE]I would imagine that[/STRIKE] Graham must, by now, be in a hypnotic trance - has fallen from his tiny little wooden stool - foaming at the mouth - hyperventilating - predicting a fall of 3% every month throughout the whole of 2014, as Carney (in a vindictive and personal vendetta against Osborne) strangles the lifeblood of mortage funds and restricts mortgages to 0.5 X Salary, with a maximum LTV of 10%, at an interest rate of 33.7%....

We're all dooooooooooommmmmmmmmmed....

.... outsized hair shirts all round.....

You might want to put a little more tonic in the next one!

Funny post though.

nickj_2

i can't see how higher house prices ofvwhich people are struugling to afford or repay can be good for society or the economy, if people are paying more and more for their houses or mortgages then that will surely mean less and less for them to spend boosting the economy,

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Surely the withdrawal of these schemes suggests an expectation that the market can support itself without them?

£17 billion is a minute amount given the size of the banks and building societies balance sheets.

The risk of a secondary financial crisis aren't past yet.

Hence why confidence (public) is so key. Think back to Northern Rock and how quickly the bank collapsed.

Loughton_Monkey

nickj wrote: »

i can't see how higher house prices ofvwhich people are struugling to afford or repay can be good for society or the economy, if people are paying more and more for their houses or mortgages then that will surely mean less and less for them to spend boosting the economy,

People buy houses with a mortgage.

Normally, a reasonable cash deposit is put down, and a monthly repayment mortgage is (usually) the largest-ticket item in most people's budgets. Some of that is paying the capital. Most of it is the monthly Interest.

So what we have here is:

(a) a propensity to invest. Something so much needed in UK. Investing is one's own property is an extremely good "investment" irrespective of price. [just monthly costs for 25 years v equivalent rent forever is a brilliant investment].

(b) the very substantial "spending" consisting of the mortgage interest. Isn't spending to (primarily) British owned businesses just as good as spending on (say) imported goods?

Any HPI is a bonus, and a welcome one at that.

Nobody, including me, will maintain that houses never go down. They can and do 'crash' every so often, but always bounce back. Or they can stay level-ish....

But to believe they are overpriced by any huge degree is a fallacy. If you think they are, just ask any builder about the pure cost of building [which by definition is done according to British wages, employment legislation, planning legislation, building regs....]. Are they making double digit profit per house? I think not.

If you think house owners are 'struggling' to pay their mortgage at the lowest rates in history, then I can only say that's not true of my area. I see people struggling to pay rents, which are generally higher than an equivalent mortgage would be.

On the other hand, most people have cottoned on to the fact that if they want a car (and not everyone can afford one, I agree) then most choose to buy rather than take one on contract hire. Because that's not good use of money.

Blacklight

[BBC Controller] Hmm... house prices remain at 2001 prices in real terms. Better jump on the bandwagon and instigate 'bubble panic strategy No.3' if there's no massive natural disaster overnight Susanna.

[Susanna Reid] Right wing fascist nazi government strategy is set to cause another massive house price bubble as Nationwide figures indicate house prices haven't risen in over a deace... strictly, strictly *giggle*..blah ..blah

[Stephanie McGovern] Wae'aye man, high house prices are annoying. What the fuϲk was that?