National debt would soar if immigration reduced...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Britain needs millions more immigrants to reduce strain of ageing population

Britain may need millions more immigrants over the next 50 years to reduce the "unsustainable" pressure that the ageing population is putting on the economy, the official forecaster has said.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said that spending on the state pension, social care and healthcare will rise from 14 per cent of Britain's GDP to almost a fifth.

The report found that allowing more than 140,000 immigrants into Britain a year, equivalent to 6million people, would help increase the overall number of people who are in work and improve public finances.

Its analysis suggests that Britain's borrowing as a propotion of GDP would rise to 99 per cent if there is a steady flow of immigrants. If there was a complete ban on immigrants, borrowing would rise to 174 per cent of GDP.

The report says: "Our analysis shows that overall migration has a positive impact on the sustainability of the public finances over our 50 year horizon

ww.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10185342/Britain-needs-millions-more-immigrants-to-reduce-strain-of-ageing-population.html

Obvious really....

Graham_Devon

All pyramid schemes are pretty obvious.

It just generally where you feel you sit on said pyramid that has you deciding whether it's a good thing or not.

kabayiri

The article quoted refers to the consequences of a "ban" on immigration.

The thread title mentions "reduced" immigration.

Make your mind up.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All pyramid schemes are pretty obvious.

It just generally where you feel you sit on said pyramid that has you deciding whether it's a good thing or not.

The human race has never faced a time of having more old people than young.

That there have always been more young than old has been essential to the survival of the species since we were apes.

It's breathtakingly arrogant to call that a "pyramid scheme", or expect humanity to be able to change the structure of the entire social system in just a few years, or even decades.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

The article quoted refers to the consequences of a "ban" on immigration.

The thread title mentions "reduced" immigration.

Make your mind up.

I've always found you tend to look a bit less foolish when criticising other posters if you actually read the article first.....

The article shows a range of results, from an increase in net migration, to a decrease, and also a total ban. Therefore the thread title is correct.

If we increase net migration to 260K a year, then debt will reduce from current levels.

If we reduce net migration to 140K a year debt will increase to 99% of GDP over the time horizon involved.

If we reduce net migration to zero the national debt will soar to catastrophic highs of 175% of GDP.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I've always found you tend to look a bit less foolish when criticising other posters if you actually read the article first.....

The article shows a range of results, from an increase in net migration, to a decrease, and also a total ban. Therefore the thread title is correct.
...

It's incomplete. It's selective. It's a Hamish title.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

It's incomplete. It's selective. It's a Hamish title.

It's factual. It's accurate. It's a Hamish title.

National debt would soar if immigration were to be meaningfully reduced from todays levels.

The OBR confirms this.

National debt would soar even more if net migration fell to zero.

Both points are correct.

You can't really argue with that, which is why you're playing the man, not the ball.

CLAPTON

The OBR is an overtly political animal

The OBR has been incorrect on all its forecasts to date

Never in the history of human kind has there been an OBR

One can arrive at any prediction if you make the 'right' assumptions

Debt is not inevitable and can be changed by human action

spacey2012

Personally, I feel the first people we need rid of from this country is those that thinks uncontrolled immigration is good for the country.
I would start with them, expel them.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The human race has never faced a time of having more old people than young.

That there have always been more young than old has been essential to the survival of the species since we were apes.

It's breathtakingly arrogant to call that a "pyramid scheme", or expect humanity to be able to change the structure of the entire social system in just a few years, or even decades.

Woah.

Talk about shovelling words into ones mouth.

Your argument was about finances and the financial structure. It wasn't about evolution.

My reference to a pyramid scheme was shovelling millions of immigrants into one small country to bolster it's financial system. The argument YOU put forward and claimed was "obvious".

It was nothing to do with evolution. So don't write my argument off by switching your argument entirely and claiming I was making an argument about evolution.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's factual. It's accurate. It's a Hamish title.

National debt would soar if immigration were to be meaningfully reduced from todays levels.

The OBR confirms this.

National debt would soar even more if net migration fell to zero.

Both points are correct.

You can't really argue with that, which is why you're playing the man, not the ball.

Yeah, it's more fun though.

I am pretty sure we covered this topic recently though.

Is there anything new being revealed? I doubt it.