First time buyer, when is best time to buy?

Loughton_Monkey

macaque wrote: »

I am the CEO of the 70% club. Our analysts have calculated that house prices will fall by 70% (based on 2007 prices) over the next 20 years.

.....

After that you play the ball where it lies.


The very Reverend Simiam Macaque ADHD

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No.

You are the CEO of the -70% club.

Loughton Monkey is in charge of the +70% club.

Damned confusing though, I must say, couldn't one of you pick 71% or 69% instead?

Quite right!

I asked 'our analyst' to re-visit the +70% assumption and it came out brand new. Couldn't persuade them to go to 70.5% or even 70.1%. So a round 70% it is.

The Most Reverend Simian Loughton Monkey ADHD [Action to Defeat House Depreciation]

PS: I would say rather more about my campaign, by "our analyst" has just instructed me to stop pee'ing about and pour her another glass of bubbles.

Loughton_Monkey

chucky wrote: »

You best buy one before you miss out then.

... but don't shout about it. They'll all want one!

J_i_m

So, you want to buy a house, you've reached your target deposit, you've done the research and calculations and have decided that you can afford it.

So what are you waiting for? Is your motivation obtaining a home and hoping to make a profit?

andrewf75

PasturesNew wrote: »

I'm trying to buy a house to live in - every EA I am speaking to is saying that it's BTLers that buy houses and so sellers are holding out for their full asking as a BTLer will always be along soon.

Don't take any notice of that. Its in their intersest to get the best price they can for sellers. Get to know the market in the area you're looking at and you can see what price houses are being put on for and what they're selling for. You soon build up a feel for what houses are worth and what is the right amount to offer.

grizzly1911

andrewf75 wrote: »

Don't take any notice of that. Its in their intersest to get the best price they can for sellers. Get to know the market in the area you're looking at and you can see what price houses are being put on for and what they're selling for. You soon build up a feel for what houses are worth and what is the right amount to offer.

Even better now that it is so easy to see what properties actually sold for.

Loughton_Monkey

J_i_m wrote: »

So, you want to buy a house, you've reached your target deposit, you've done the research and calculations and have decided that you can afford it.

So what are you waiting for? Is your motivation obtaining a home and hoping to make a profit?

Good advice.

There is a lot of distorted thinking these days about trying to 'time' the market, instead of simply 'getting on with it' as soon as you can buy a house. Almost any house to start with.

You don't need to think about HPI at all to 'make a profit'. Simply write down a column of numbers representing the cost of buying over (say) 25 years. Put in maintenance costs/insurance if you want....for every year right down to (say) age 85 or 90.

Beside that, write down another column of numbers representing the cost of renting all your life. Again to age 85 or 90. Make whatever reasonable assumptions you like on inflation...

By the simple act of doing this, you will show a fantastic profit. Enough to make any difference of (say) 10% on today's price of a house look like a wart on the backside of an elephant.

OK, I've moved quite a few times, but if I take 10% of my first house cost, inflate it by RPI to today, it comes to a tiny 0.7% of my current house equity.

Swafe

J_i_m wrote: »

So, you want to buy a house, you've reached your target deposit, you've done the research and calculations and have decided that you can afford it.

So what are you waiting for? Is your motivation obtaining a home and hoping to make a profit?

No, the idea is to buy the best house I can for my money, as my money is increasing, if the prices are decreasing then Im getting a double whammy and will get a lot more for my money - therefore it will pay to wait as I will get a bigger/better house for my money

Conversely, if the prices rise, my money rises the effect is negated, so it doesnt really matter when I buy, this is why it depends if this is a 5% mortgage bubble, or a temporary blip and which will dissappear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Swafe wrote: »

this is why it depends if this is a 5% mortgage bubble, or a temporary blip and which will dissappear

It's not a temporary blip.

In my opinion the current artificial repressing of house prices through mortgage rationing is starting to end, and the lowest house building in a century is about to meet the biggest generational bulge of FTB age people in history.

As soaring population and the existing million house shortage, worsened by 5 years of mortgage rationing causing century low house building, have now all but ensured the next boom will be the biggest ever.

Leading to the likeliest outcome by far being a near doubling in house prices in real terms over the next cycle....



I think we're on the cusp of the next big bull run in property due to fundamental supply shortages.





It is difficult to overstate just how critical a shortage of housing the UK now has, and that strong a fundamental imbalance can usually only have one possible long term outcome on prices.

They'll soar.

Of course, other opinions may vary.....

But they've mostly been wrong so far

blinko

he has a good point, the increase in population will increase demand purely on a basic supply and demand level.

Although those graphs are 3 years old....

The short term blips will be help to buy being withdrawn and interest rate increases, although how interest rates can increase while help 2 buy is still in place would be a bit of a contradictory political statement (not that this is unlikely)

overall 10 years from now house prices should be higher than they are today, assuming the level of supply remains constrained, there may be bumps a long the way but these will be bumps and maybe even a crash, but it will be unlikely to halt the upward trend

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

blinko wrote: »

Although those graphs are 3 years old....

The shortage since then has worsened....