When Will Rates Rise?

Thrugelmir

For anyone that's missed the other thread. New member same post on different threads.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4797209

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MortgageAnxiety wrote: »

Hasn't China become the global superpower?

No, no, no....

China is facing a demographic crisis that makes the current ageing crisis seen in the west look tame by comparison.

The population of Chinese workers is already shrinking while the population of aged grows, and China will go into absolute population decline by 2020.

China is about to lose it's competitiveness in a big way, at the same time it's crippled by a shrinking economy and massively increased burden of aged care.

And it's xenophobia and insular nature ensure that mass immigration will not be the answer it so badly needs.

There's no way China can be the next superpower.

My head is spinning with this.

Too many views and too much YouTube quite possibly.

Usually bad for your financial health.

I don't see the economy as recovering here or in the US, but this is what has been fed to me by - Peter Schiff, Larry Edelson and others.

I am not an economist.

The doomers are like stopped clocks.

Only right for one second every 12 hours.

They've just had that moment.

They won't be right again for another decade or two.

I WAS planning on fixing my mortgage for 10 years and buying gold mines, with a view that the US would default OR raise QE.

Now I am just confused.

Fixing for 10 years at the moment is not a bad idea given how cheap they are.

Not because raters will rise due to some global catastrophe, but because rates will inevitably rise as the recovery gathers strength.

But Gold and associated shares operate on a very long cycle, and we're currently on the downslope.

I don't expect Gold to see another peak for decades.

MortgageAnxiety

So presumably Hamish the US debt to GDP is within acceptable boundaries?

Part of my thinking before my seniors said there piece was, if the UK are in debt and I am in debt we would work in tandem i.e - base rates stay low and debt, theirs and mine, eroded.

I am still confused. 6 months of watching 'buy gold when it hits... Interest rates will sky rocket ... Us default will mean...'

If this doesn't happen I am going to look a moron as I have told my whole family to start nailing things down.

Is there anywhere I can go to read an economists view on the UK?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MortgageAnxiety wrote: »

So presumably Hamish the US debt to GDP is within acceptable boundaries?

UK debt to GDP......




US debt to GDP.....

Part of my thinking before my seniors said there piece was, if the UK are in debt and I am in debt we would work in tandem i.e - base rates stay low and debt, theirs and mine, eroded.

That's simplistic, but not an unreasonable assumption.

I am still confused. 6 months of watching 'buy gold when it hits... Interest rates will sky rocket ... Us default will mean...'

The internet has a lot to answer for.

There are legions of gold and silver bugs nursing very heavy losses, that are only going to get worse.

Ignore the youtube ramping.

If this doesn't happen I am going to look a moron as I have told my whole family to start nailing things down.

Like I say, a 10 year fix at the moment isn't a bad idea.

But only because things are likely to get better, not worse.

Is there anywhere I can go to read an economists view on the UK?

Start here....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17398014

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2013/mpc1310.pdf

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/debt-is-mostly-money-we-owe-to-ourselves/?_r=0

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/10/11/1664302/why-the-level-of-government-debt-may-not-matter/

And then a couple more.....

http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2013/10/10/learning-budget-lessons-from-japan-and-britain/

http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2013/03/21/even-britain-has-now-abandoned-austerity/

MortgageAnxiety

Agreed - 1 child policy will massively impede on China's dependency ratio and ability to growing - but are they not still growing at 7% ish a year?

Would love a good discussion on this as the decisions I make now will impact on my financial capacity for the rest of my life, as I am 31 at this point.

However, I get the impression others before me have made people sceptical about my intentions, which is a real shame.

If you can recommend a well respected economist I can review I will be on my way.

Best wishes, and please try and give some people a chance, for someone outside the financial/ economic world this is bloody hard to get your head around and people, like me, will put confidence in what they see and hear. This may or may not be correct.

MortgageAnxiety

Thanks Hamish.

Best of luck with your investments.

Regards

Aidan

ILW

Just buy a house if you want somewhere to live. Whatever happens will happen.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MortgageAnxiety wrote: »

Agreed - 1 child policy will massively impede on China's dependency ratio and ability to growing - but are they not still growing at 7% ish a year?

They're growing at 7% now....

But that can't continue.

Would love a good discussion on this as the decisions I make now will impact on my financial capacity for the rest of my life, as I am 31 at this point.

Feel free, I'm always happy to debate these topics.

However, I get the impression others before me have made people sceptical about my intentions, which is a real shame.

Yes, sorry about that, a case of mistaken identity.

This board attracts more than it's fair share of sockies.

grizzly1911

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They're growing at 7% now....

But that can't continue.



.

Immigration is what they need. That will solve all their problems and find a use for all their under occupied housing stock.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Immigration is what they need..

Immigration is exactly what they need.

As this.....






.... is economically catastrophic.