25% rise in 5 years

[Deleted User]

chucky wrote: »

There will be less FTB's just like the times pre-1960 where the people that did buy were the ones that made the right sacrifices or where wealthy in the first place.

But with less buyers, you should see prices drop or flatten at the bottom of the market.

The only way I see the house market 'recover' is if salaries rise to a level that can support it. For that, you need a general recovery in the economy.

Loughton_Monkey

ringo_24601 wrote: »

But with less buyers, you should see prices drop or flatten at the bottom of the market.

The only way I see the house market 'recover' is if salaries rise to a level that can support it. For that, you need a general recovery in the economy.

... and do you think we are recovering? Will salaries tend to rise, or fall over the next few years?

IveSeenTheLight

ringo_24601 wrote: »

But with less buyers, you should see prices drop or flatten at the bottom of the market.

The only way I see the house market 'recover' is if salaries rise to a level that can support it. For that, you need a general recovery in the economy.

Fewer FTBers does not necessarily equate to fewer purchases at the bottom end of the market.

With fewer buyers, you invariably increase the demand for rental properties, thus driving up rents

grizzly1911

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

... and do you think we are recovering? Will salaries tend to rise, or fall over the next few years?

They will undoubtedly rise at some point.

I don't think the general rises will be spread in the same way they have in the past.

A growing pool at the bottom of the scale will never "catchup".

Lack of cohesion in the workforce will ensure that bargaining powers won't exist like thy have in the past.

Graham_Devon

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

... and do you think we are recovering? Will salaries tend to rise, or fall over the next few years?

Rise. But the rather more important part, as a question to Mark Carney laid out earlier today, is how much they will rise compared to inflation.

Carney was very comfortable stating that due to a recovery, salaries will rise and competition in the sectors heat up again. However, he avoided the question as to whether that rise would keep pace with inflation.

It's pretty much a dead cert that salaries will rise year on year. Even if the majority stay static, the minimum wage will rise, so on average, salaries will rise. So he appears to be stating the absolute obvious, and putting it across as a good news story.

Was nicely crafted. Just a shame the question over whether a rise means keeping pace with inflation was avoided in a just as well crafted manner!

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Rise. But the rather more important part, as a question to Mark Carney laid out earlier today, is how much they will rise compared to inflation.

Carney was very comfortable stating that due to a recovery, salaries will rise and competition in the sectors heat up again. However, he avoided the question as to whether that rise would keep pace with inflation.

It's pretty much a dead cert that salaries will rise year on year. Even if the majority stay static, the minimum wage will rise. So he appears to be stating the absolute obvious, and putting it across as a good news story.

Was nicely crafted. Just a shame the question over whether a rise means keeping pace with inflation was avoided in a just as well crafted manner!

Fair point about whether the salary increases are real term or not, however my Honorable friend must surely concede that in terms of its effect on house prices, it's the real term salary increases of the homebuying market that will be prominent rather than those on minimum wage.

chucky

ringo_24601 wrote: »

But with less buyers, you should see prices drop or flatten at the bottom of the market.

The only way I see the house market 'recover' is if salaries rise to a level that can support it. For that, you need a general recovery in the economy.

I don't think there will be enough of a drop in numbers of buyers to affect prices.

There's a short supply as it is, so can't see it happening unless more property is built in the right areas or rents drop dramatically.

Loughton_Monkey

grizzly1911 wrote: »

They will undoubtedly rise at some point.

I don't think the general rises will be spread in the same way they have in the past.

A growing pool at the bottom of the scale will never "catchup".

Lack of cohesion in the workforce will ensure that bargaining powers won't exist like thy have in the past.

I can only believe that things will get 'better'. Even if wages keep up only with CPI than that's better than now.

The point with houses, though, is that those scrambling to buy now [and can presumably afford it] are basically protected slightly since their debt is now 'fixed' in £notes. Interest rate may go up a bit, but over time they are safe.

But we should always remember that even if wages rise only CPI, then (as you suggest) there is always a 'lucky' half and an 'unlucky' half, and any rises at all at the higher end brings a constant supply of 'new' people into the market. This only needs to exceed the [miniscule perhaps] number of new properties built to ensure that prices edge up.

chewmylegoff

4.5% pa is hardly mind boggling.

Fella

The best post I ever saw on housing (on a different forum) was simply a selection of newspaper headlines each month over a long period (years & years). Throughout the period, which included house rises and falls, the headlines each month during the periods where prices rose included stories of house rises and falls and predictions of house rises and falls. And the headlines each month during the periods where prices fell included stories of house rises and falls and predictions of house rises and falls.


House prices go up & down but newspaper headlines about what they've done are fairly meaningless and headlines about what they're going to do are completely meaningless.