House prices in all UK regions rise for first time since financial crisis

IveSeenTheLight

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2434792/Average-UK-house-price-surges-5-year-high-says-Nationwide.html

* House prices hit highest level since June 2008
* London property values now 8% higher than their previous peak
* Manchester and Newcastle see values jump 10% and 8%
* Chancellor to give Bank of England greater powers to control property bubble
* North/South divide widens: typical property in the south is 74% more expensive than in the north

Loughton_Monkey

Looks like they have another 20% or so to go up to get back on the long term trend line.

From the original Nationwide release:

“While there have been encouraging signs that house building is starting to recover, construction is still running well below what is likely to be required to keep up with demand. New housing starts in England were up 33% in Q2 compared to the same period of 2012, but this is still 36% below the levels prevailing in 2007, which were already below that required to keep pace with household formation.

“The risk is that if demand continues to run ahead of supply, affordability may become stretched. House price growth has been outstripping average earnings growth since the middle of the year, for the first time since late 2010. However, affordability is being supported by the ultra low level of
interest rates. A typical mortgage payment for a first time buyer is currently equal to around 29% of take home pay, in line with the long term average.”

Personally, I don't see it as a 'risk'. More a certainty.

Percy1983

Off the top of my head I am pretty sure Manchester isn't up 10%.

chucky

Percy1983 wrote: »

Off the top of my head I am pretty sure Manchester isn't up 10%.

For someone that isn't 'too bothered' about house prices you really do keep and eye on them...

Percy1983

Checking ocasionally comes with posting on the board,

I checked it recently(ish) I can check again now and confirm if you wish.

chucky

Percy1983 wrote: »

Checking ocasionally comes with posting on the board,

I checked it recently(ish) I can check again now and confirm if you wish.

No it's fine. I don't really care about house prices in Manchester or anywhere else until I want to sell a property.

Property prices means very little, it's the selling price of your property that matters.

IveSeenTheLight

Percy1983 wrote: »

Off the top of my head I am pretty sure Manchester isn't up 10%.

Let's review your "off the top of your head" versus the data this report is based on: -

This is based on Nationwide data
Here's a link to their Q3 release

This shows the change in the last quarter is 10% for the City of Manchester.
Obviously there is a bit of noise on monthly or quarterly data, but the report is just reflecting the stats

Looking at land registry, thee was a dip from April to July, so the more recent stats may be simply reporting HPI plus a reported drop in the previous quarter

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Let's review your "off the top of your head" versus the data this report is based on: -

This is based on Nationwide data
Here's a link to their Q3 release

The denial of some people when the facts is presented in front of them is unbelievable.

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

The denial of some people when the facts is presented in front of them is unbelievable.

It's quite interesting that the LR can show the House Price Data
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/information/public-data/price-paid-data

WA14 seems to be a nice postcode as the top three sales for Greater Manchester was there (1.85 million, 1.14 million and 1.12 million)

Turnbull2000

London aside, UK house price are seriously undervalued at the moment. A 20% upwards adjustment over the next 3-4 years has been my prediction. I'm becoming ever more certain this will be the near-term trend.

harpoboy

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

A 20% upwards adjustment over the next 3-4 years has been my prediction. I'm becoming ever more certain this will be the near-term trend.

Would certainly agree with that synopsis.

My concern though is that the Help to Buy scheme will unnecessarily inflate an already recovering market.