House Prices Surge again...Sky News..

matt1234

Sibley wrote: »

House prices are rising and will never crash.

Second part is wrong. Hopefully most people who have benefitted from HPI have the sense to remortgage at the peak and can see out the invevitable crash that will follow.

I'm no fan of hpc.co.uk, im practically banned there, but you are equally as deluded if you think there will be no crash after the 2/3 year boom we are going to see. It is just an opportunity for the boomers/BTLers to cash in or downsize, I hope they see it as it couldn't be made any clearer.

wotsthat

matt1234 wrote: »

I'm no fan of hpc.co.uk, im practically banned there, but you are equally as deluded if you think there will be no crash after the 2/3 year boom we are going to see. It is just an opportunity for the boomers/BTLers to cash in or downsize, I hope they see it as it couldn't be made any clearer.

This has been standard advice on HPC for a decade and quite poor advice at that. Why is it going to be different this time?

purch

Bump .................................

matt1234

wotsthat wrote: »

This has been standard advice on HPC for a decade and quite poor advice at that. Why is it going to be different this time?

Without very substantial government support, i.e HtB extended to 40% deposits for newbuilds or a govt bank to give out loans to every Tom, !!!!!! and Harry, there is no way higher prices can be sustained. It will all depend on government action, but I don't see how pricing out 2 sets of generations is going to be politically beneficial so government policy will change at some point. I don't pretend to know how soon that will be, but I'm not stupid enough to see that it will come eventually and I'm not going to be caught off guard.

CLAPTON

matt1234 wrote: »

Without very substantial government support, i.e HtB extended to 40% deposits for newbuilds or a govt bank to give out loans to every Tom, !!!!!! and Harry, there is no way higher prices can be sustained. It will all depend on government action, but I don't see how pricing out 2 sets of generations is going to be politically beneficial so government policy will change at some point. I don't pretend to know how soon that will be, but I'm not stupid enough to see that it will come eventually and I'm not going to be caught off guard.

why can't higher prices be sustained?

2 generations aren't priced out

there a reasonably priced houses in all areas of the country

obviously there will be some that won't be able to buy but that every thus

we do of course need more properties so we need to build more so we can meet the needs of the increasing population and the wants of the X&Y generation

matt1234

CLAPTON wrote: »

why can't higher prices be sustained?

If prices rise by 20% in the next couple of years, and wages are going up by less than inflation in that time, where do you suppose people will find the money to pay the higher mortgage costs? Every household has a limit on how much they can spend servicing their mortgage, once that ceiling is reached, house prices have no where to go but down.

Edit to add: we all know that ceiling has already been reached, but due to govt intervention (ZIRP) millions of borrowers have been given a lifeline. But interest rates can only go up from here, what will all the new borrowers who have jumped on the ship with Help to Buy do when interest rates reach 4/5%?

CLAPTON wrote: »

2 generations aren't priced out

If you re-read, I meant that if government policy continued on this trajectory, two generations WOULD be priced out, and it would make no sense for politicians to go down that route.

CLAPTON

matt1234 wrote: »

If prices rise by 20% in the next couple of years, and wages are going up by less than inflation in that time, where do you suppose people will find the money to pay the higher mortgage costs? Every household has a limit on how much they can spend servicing their mortgage, once that ceiling is reached, house prices have no where to go but down.

Edit to add: we all know that ceiling has already been reached, but due to govt intervention (ZIRP) millions of borrowers have been given a lifeline. But interest rates can only go up from here, what will all the new borrowers who have jumped on the ship with Help to Buy do when interest rates reach 4/5%?




If you re-read, I meant that if government policy continued on this trajectory, two generations WOULD be priced out, and it would make no sense for politicians to go down that route.

how do you know the ceiling has been reached?


if prices rise it's because people are buying: how can they be priced out?


give me some examples of areas where 2 generations are priced out

matt1234

CLAPTON wrote: »

1) how do you know the ceiling has been reached?


2) if prices rise it's because people are buying: how can they be priced out?


3) give me some examples of areas where 2 generations are priced out

1) The ceiling was reached in 2007, it took massive government intervention to reverse a 25% decline in house prices.

2) Prices are rising because of government intervention, not because the market dictates it: ZIRP, FLS, HtB, SMI etc. This is not classic supply and demand. People would be priced out if it wasn't for billions of government subsidies.

3) For the third time, I said that two generations could be priced out if government policy continued this trend of supporting HPI. Currently, most of country is out of reach of 20 somethings whereas in previous decades people would have bought their first home by that age. We are now looking at people buying their first house in their late thirties, this could easily turn into their forties if HPI continues.

Please don't ask me any more questions, you are just ignorant and I don't want to spend my morning answering your useless questions + your lack of capital letters at the beginning of sentences is extremely annoying.

CLAPTON

matt1234 wrote: »

1) The ceiling was reached in 2007, it took massive government intervention to reverse a 25% decline in house prices.

2) Prices are rising because of government intervention, not because the market dictates it: ZIRP, FLS, HtB, SMI etc. This is not classic supply and demand. People would be priced out if it wasn't for billions of government subsidies.

3) For the third time, I said that two generations could be priced out if government policy continued this trend of supporting HPI. Currently, most of country is out of reach of 20 somethings whereas in previous decades people would have bought their first home by that age. We are now looking at people buying their first house in their late thirties, this could easily turn into their forties if HPI continues.

Please don't ask me any more questions, you are just ignorant and I don't want to spend my morning answering your useless questions + your lack of capital letters at the beginning of sentences is extremely annoying.

just looking at some actual facts rather than nonsense assertions


sheffield S6 under 120k there are 118 properties listed

................under 100k there are 104 properties listed


doesn't seem that youth is locked out here or even likely to be

matt1234

CLAPTON wrote: »

just looking at some actual facts rather than nonsense assertions


sheffield S6 under 120k there are 118 properties listed

................under 100k there are 104 properties listed


doesn't seem that youth is locked out here or even likely to be

Income distribution across UK regions

Office for National Statistic 2007[23] UK region Gross income London £27,868 South East England £21,109 East Anglia £19,469 Scotland £19,282 North West England £19,236 West Midlands £18,801 South West England £18,629 Yorkshire & the Humber £18,614 East Midlands £18,321 Wales £17,651 North East England £17,594

I hope you aren't comparing London wages with Sheffield house prices.

This doesn't even take into account the level of unemployment in Sheffield.