Halifax July +0.9% MoM +4.6% YoY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

• Prices in the latest three months (May-July) were 2.1% higher than in the preceding three months (February-April).

• Prices in the three months to July were 4.6% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This was higher than June's 3.7% increase and is the highest annual rate since August 2010 (4.6%).

• House prices increased by 0.9% in July. This was the sixth successive monthly rise.

• Activity is also higher. Home sales in the first six months of 2013 were 6% higher than in the same period last year, at 495,000. The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – in the second quarter of 2013 was 6% higher than in the first quarter despite a 1% fall between May and June.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halifax/2013/060813_HPI.pdf

:beer:

Excellent news.

Recovery in the housing market and wider economy continues.

Graham_Devon

Certainly is excellent news! With 5% YOY HPI, the government will come under more and more criticism over their schemes and props, as prices rise so quickly they eat up any further liquidity the schemes add.

ruggedtoast

Another turn of the screw for struggling families wanting to escape the renting treadmill.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

With 5% YOY HPI, the government will come under more and more criticism over their schemes .

Nonsense.

5%+ YoY HPI is exactly what is needed to restore the health of the wider economy.

As prices rise back towards and then above their previous nominal peak, fewer people will be in negative equity which increases their ability to move and provides greater employee mobility.

As the wealth effect kicks in then consumer spending in the economy increases, business investment rises as a response, and unemployment falls as a result.

As more people move then more economic growth is generated from associated goods and services.

As more people fall into lower LTV bands, the cost of mortgages gets cheaper so more money is spent by households.

And as more mortgages are available, more housing gets built, and more existing housing comes onto the market as prices rise and reluctant landlords can sell, meaning more people can buy houses.

This is absolutely brilliant news for the housing market, the wider economy, and society as a whole.

No wonder it's so popular with the public, from all parties, as it's the first really good and successful thing this government has done economically so far.

With poll numbers like that, the government can comfortably afford to ignore the few doom-mongers and media types that moan about it.

:beer:

mystic_trev

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Certainly is excellent news! With 5% YOY HPI, the government will come under more and more criticism over their schemes and props, as prices rise so quickly they eat up any further liquidity the schemes add.

They won't be bothered as it'll be a vote winner for the next Election. With part two of the Help to Buy scheme starting in the new year, I'm assuming they'll be double digit increases in the SE next year. I'm not saying that's a good thing, I'm just pointing out the obvious!

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Certainly is excellent news! With 5% YOY HPI, the government will come under more and more criticism over their schemes and props, as prices rise so quickly they eat up any further liquidity the schemes add.

The schemes and 'props' are now locked in until the election unless, for purely political reasons, a scheme or two is toned down because the awesomeness of government policy means it's no longer needed.

There will only be muted criticism as the government are helping people onto the housing ladder and prices are rising so negative equity isn't going to be a worry in the pre-election period. Meanwhile the wealth of homeowners is increasing.

By and large people vote with their back pockets. The conservatives know this and so do Labour who must be despondent with the decent economic news that keeps coming out.

The 'early adopters' of HTB look like they're going to do alright from this scheme - thought they would.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Did all the bears go on holiday?

angrypirate

Runaway house prices are not good. A steady HPI of ~2% a year would be ok but this pace is too fast. This is NOT good news.

chucknorris

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Did all the bears go on holiday?

Hibernating?

wotsthat

angrypirate wrote: »

Runaway house prices are not good. A steady HPI of ~2% a year would be ok but this pace is too fast. This is NOT good news.

I've been quite pleased that prices have lagged inflation recently but have held up nominally as it seems to be the best of both worlds. To expect house prices to permanently lag inflation though was never going to happen - a recovery was always going to highlight a housing shortage.

HPI of 4.6% is only c1.6% above inflation vs Nationwide's trend of +2.9% since 1975. Probably a sign that the recovery is still less than robust especially since there seems little sign that supply has increased dramatically during the recession.

Can't help thinking that we're going to be back to trend HPI (at least) for a while with the odd MoM negative figure to keep the bears excited.

Thrugelmir

chucknorris wrote: »

Hibernating?

Out having a picnic.