arrears have increased by 340% following the housing benefit cuts

E.L.James

CLAPTON wrote: »

why is what is happening in (Southern ) Europe coming here?

employment is rising

repossessions are very low

we don't have large estate full of empty houses

no real comparisons here

We are just some time behind them.

We are having large developments being built all around the country especially in London there are large developments building thousands of new homes at a time taking up to 10yrs each new development.

If during that time the UK's debt burden gets out of control as it has in other countries and if during the next decade interest rates correct back to the long term norm, then it is looking very likely the UK will follow.

The other reason we have not been hit so hard is because our government is still paying out high benefit payments. This will continue to be cut back every year going forward.

dktreesea

E.L.James wrote: »

We are just some time behind them.

We are having large developments being built all around the country especially in London there are large developments building thousands of new homes at a time taking up to 10yrs each new development.

If during that time the UK's debt burden gets out of control as it has in other countries and if during the next decade interest rates correct back to the long term norm, then it is looking very likely the UK will follow.

The other reason we have not been hit so hard is because our government is still paying out high benefit payments. This will continue to be cut back every year going forward.

The UK's debt burden will probably not get out of control, not while they control their own currency.

The reason many of the Euro countries are in trouble is because the normal mechanisms of allowing their currency to depreciate through things like quantitative easing (i.e. getting out the printing presses) or pushing up interest rates to cool an overheated economy, aren't available. If Spain, for example, still had the peseta, presumably it would be trading at somewhat of a discount to what it was valued at when they first joined the Euro.

In the event, like now, when Britain overspends at the rate of £10 billion a month so can't even pay for it's interest bill, much less make any capital repayments on its debt, out of current earnings, it will just print it's way out of trouble (by creating new debt which it lends to itself) and allow the currency to (continue to) depreciate.

dktreesea

CLAPTON wrote: »

why is what is happening in (Southern ) Europe coming here?

employment is rising

repossessions are very low

we don't have large estate full of empty houses

no real comparisons here

Is employment really rising? The unemployment figures are distorted. If the employment figures were corrected to reflect the number of FT equivalents earning at least the NMW, I am sure the employment figures would look far worse than now. We have massive under employment, not to mention millions - yes millions - of self employed people declaring profits of less than the FT NMW.

This article is from this time last year, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/9407951/Employment-is-rising-but-its-not-down-to-job-creation.html
and shows the myth of rising employment.

Even articles such as this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jul/17/uk-unemployment-falls-claimant-count-data
look poorly researched. As one responder pointed out, a key measure, the growth in the number of people available to work, i.e. of working age (16 to 64) is never mentioned. Had it been, it would have been apparent that to just "stand still" on employment we would have to create around 100,000 jobs a quarter. As in FT jobs equivalent.

Saying we have had a growth of 544,000 jobs in the year to 2013 in the private sector offset by a fall of 112,000 jobs in the public sector, (oh, how convenient! A net increase of 400,000 jobs!) is just meaningless drivel, when even the slightest scrutiny of that claim indicates that unemployed workers going onto a workcare slave labour scheme or unpaid "training" count as an increase in employment. As does anyone becoming self employed, however low the profits, or taking a part time job, however few the hours. Even zero rated contracts count as "employed".

E.L.James

dktreesea wrote: »

Is employment really rising? The unemployment figures are distorted. If the employment figures were corrected to reflect the number of FT equivalents earning at least the NMW, I am sure the employment figures would look far worse than now. We have massive under employment, not to mention millions - yes millions - of self employed people declaring profits of less than the FT NMW.

This article is from this time last year,
and shows the myth of rising employment.

Even articles such as this
look poorly researched. As one responder pointed out, a key measure, the growth in the number of people available to work, i.e. of working age (16 to 64) is never mentioned. Had it been, it would have been apparent that to just "stand still" on employment we would have to create around 100,000 jobs a quarter. As in FT jobs equivalent.

Saying we have had a growth of 544,000 jobs in the year to 2013 in the private sector offset by a fall of 112,000 jobs in the public sector, (oh, how convenient! A net increase of 400,000 jobs!) is just meaningless drivel, when even the slightest scrutiny of that claim indicates that unemployed workers going onto a workcare slave labour scheme or unpaid "training" count as an increase in employment. As does anyone becoming self employed, however low the profits, or taking a part time job, however few the hours. Even zero rated contracts count as "employed".

Very good couple of posts and good points all dktreesea. Firstly yes you are right about them being able to kick the can down the road by currency abuse. Each country can not do that with the Euro, but they are still abusing the Euro as they are every fiat currency.

Next yes you make the point very well about how the unemployment numbers are fudged.

Same in the USA, they just change the way the come up with the numbers to suit them.

You are you spot on about self employed declaring less than min wage to get all the tax credits. It will be interesting to see what happens this October when Universal credit will supposedly be putting a stop to all that nonsense. How the economy will cope with all the future cuts that will continue is anyone's guess. But its looking like the downturn will turn into a freefall.

GFC used to stand for global financial crisis. Now it stands for the global financial catastrophe.

CLAPTON

dktreesea wrote: »

Is employment really rising? The unemployment figures are distorted. If the employment figures were corrected to reflect the number of FT equivalents earning at least the NMW, I am sure the employment figures would look far worse than now. We have massive under employment, not to mention millions - yes millions - of self employed people declaring profits of less than the FT NMW.

This article is from this time last year, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/9407951/Employment-is-rising-but-its-not-down-to-job-creation.html
and shows the myth of rising employment.

Even articles such as this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jul/17/uk-unemployment-falls-claimant-count-data
look poorly researched. As one responder pointed out, a key measure, the growth in the number of people available to work, i.e. of working age (16 to 64) is never mentioned. Had it been, it would have been apparent that to just "stand still" on employment we would have to create around 100,000 jobs a quarter. As in FT jobs equivalent.

Saying we have had a growth of 544,000 jobs in the year to 2013 in the private sector offset by a fall of 112,000 jobs in the public sector, (oh, how convenient! A net increase of 400,000 jobs!) is just meaningless drivel, when even the slightest scrutiny of that claim indicates that unemployed workers going onto a workcare slave labour scheme or unpaid "training" count as an increase in employment. As does anyone becoming self employed, however low the profits, or taking a part time job, however few the hours. Even zero rated contracts count as "employed".

there has clearly been a movement from full time to part time work but to conclude that we are moving towards the situation in southern europe is simply not justified

E.L.James

CLAPTON wrote: »

there has clearly been a movement from full time to part time work but to conclude that we are moving towards the situation in southern europe is simply not justified

By definition "moving toward" is actually true. Of course we are not there yet, and maybe never will get that bad. But I would say if someone said we are not moving toward this they are wrong.

As has been brought out the numbers are fudged. Unemployment is growing if you include all the self employed who get working tax credits but make a loss year upon year.

What changes will universal credit bring? If they are not making min wage per hour they will be added to the unemployment numbers. That is what is proposed at the moment, starting in October. If there are no changes or its not postponed yet again, in October the unemployment numbers are going to shoot up!

Thrugelmir

K.Tarshes wrote: »

Debt can not keep going up forever, we are at a point now where something has to give.

Perhaps not noticeable as yet. However change has been going on for some time now. Debt levels have begun to plateau out, there'll be clear signs of being on a downward slope in the future.

E.L.James

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Perhaps not noticeable as yet. However change has been going on for some time now. Debt levels have begun to plateau out, there'll be clear signs of being on a downward slope in the future.

The debt has to be bigger when David Cameron took over from Gordon Brown, and Brown had to increase the debt from Tony Blair.

Whoever will come after David Cameron will have to increase the debt from his government. It has to keep getting bigger or the system collapses.

theblagger

E.L.James wrote: »

By definition "moving toward" is actually true. Of course we are not there yet, and maybe never will get that bad. But I would say if someone said we are not moving toward this they are wrong.

As has been brought out the numbers are fudged. Unemployment is growing if you include all the self employed who get working tax credits but make a loss year upon year.

What changes will universal credit bring? If they are not making min wage per hour they will be added to the unemployment numbers. That is what is proposed at the moment, starting in October. If there are no changes or its not postponed yet again, in October the unemployment numbers are going to shoot up!

I expect it to be postponed again...he`s on a roll at the moment gideon with the house buying bubble ...never ever base an economy on house-buying...unfortunately gideon has

E.L.James

theblagger wrote: »

I expect it to be postponed again...he`s on a roll at the moment gideon with the house buying bubble ...never ever base an economy on house-buying...unfortunately gideon has

Yeah if there are green shoots again and look at the world through rose tinted specs then why all the cuts which just worsen the economy? Why not increase benefits and housing benefit which will keep rents high?