Could this be the start of the big one?

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

Nobody sells to China on a net basis other than Germany AIUI. If China goes to hell then I can't imagine there being a massive impact elsewhere. Unless they decide to invade or blow up somewhere of course.

Well that's potentially the danger.

If trade and globalisation doesn't give you what you want then maybe just taking what you want becomes a more attractive option.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Just seems to be a little odd that you'd dig out the comments of a random on 5live when, from 2013, he appears to have got it wrong about house prices, rising rates and inflation.

In his defence you've said he's wrong how but might be right in the future. Just wondered if he had a track record of being correct.

I dug it out because of the references to QE, stimiulus and playing with fire.

Is that ok?

OffGridLiving

Conrad wrote: »

I find that people that just plough on with life and do their thing as best they can, ignoring the ever present Armageddon scenarios, tend on balance to make a pretty good fist of things.

This is exactly my view of things, people just endure. Proof of this is in any country at war (and in Europe during WWII, London during the blitz). Ordinary people just put their heads down and grind on.

There are some people who get alarmed at the various armageddon scenarios that always appear in the press - either medical scares, pandemics, financial disasters or even environmental disasters. For every one of these there are 100,000 who just get on with it.

Sometime you can just overanalyse things. All you can do is get your finances and insurances set up to protect yourself and your family against the more likely problems such as job loss, bereavement, illness, etc. and crack on with life.

I must admit that for those who do seem to be 'doom and gloom laden', it can't be a happy life to be so timid and to live in such fear.

Graham_Devon

OffGridLiving wrote: »

This is exactly my view of things, people just endure. Proof of this is in any country at war (and in Europe during WWII, London during the blitz). Ordinary people just put their heads down and grind on.

There are some people who get alarmed at the various armageddon scenarios that always appear in the press - either medical scares, pandemincs, financial disasters or even environmental disasters. For every one of these there are 10,000 who just get on with it.

Sometime you can just overanalyse things. All you can do is get your finances and insurances set up to protect yourself and your family against the more likely problems such as job loss, bereavement, illness, etc. and crack on with life.

I must admit that for those who do seem to be 'doom and gloom laden', it can't be a happy life to be so timid and to live in such fear.

Don't turn now, you are doing well with the renovations of the character

grizzly1911

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Don't turn now, you are doing well with the renovations of the character

Surely not.

michaels

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I dunno - it was 3 years ago. Why the third degree?

Well you may call it silly, but it seems theres a real issue going on right now with gilts, which, if not controlled, could effect the world economy greatly.

The reason I bought it up is because I remember the "playing with fire" analogy, and 3 years later, it appears were at the stage at the moment whereby the unprecedented amounts of money pumped into the system is starting to cause a headache and it seems there is little scope to exit these programmes without causing massive economic fallout.

Hence the playing with fire comment from 3 years ago now seems quite apt.

I'm not sure why it's relevant who this commentator was? I didn't know then and I certainly don't know now. I don't see how that effects the point raised?

Graham I really don't understand this fear that the economy has become much more sensitive to interest rate increases.

If this has happened then a much smaller increase in rates will by defnition reduce demand by enough to bear down on inflation so I don't see the scenario where the economy is both much more sensitive to interest rates and likely to suffer a sharp rise in rates sufficient to cause disaster. What is your scenario in which this might happen?

shortchanged_2

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Surely not.

Spotted weeks ago. https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/61271589#Comment_61271589

purch

Bernankes only job is to increase employment and growth in the US whilst keeping inflation under control

Short term gyrations in stock markets matter only to headline writers

OffGridLiving

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Don't turn now, you are doing well with the renovations of the character

Sorry, I dont get it?

OffGridLiving

michaels wrote: »

Graham I really don't understand this fear that the economy has become much more sensitive to interest rate increases.

If this has happened then a much smaller increase in rates will by defnition reduce demand by enough to bear down on inflation so I don't see the scenario where the economy is both much more sensitive to interest rates and likely to suffer a sharp rise in rates sufficient to cause disaster. What is your scenario in which this might happen?

Another post that I agree with. People forget that with lower mortgage values, such as those seen in the 80s & 90s, a much higher interest rate vaue was required to achieve the desired effect - slowing down an overheating economy by reducing people's disposible income.

With much higher mortgage loans, the corresponding rate rises can be much lower to achieve the same effect.