Rightmove Jun: +1.2% MoM +2.7% YoY

Conrad

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Underpriced south east?

Rose by £42,000 in the last 6 months?

Do these statistics just get less and less relevant

Funnily enough I was taken aback recently on finding out the value of my home in the South East because there seems to have been a recent very significant jump in my area - I'm talking 20% in 12 months.

Turnbull2000

Up 10% in six months

Government intervention to restore high LTV mortgages, permanent ultra-low interest rates, house building remaining suppressed etc etc. I warned all these were on the cards a good four years ago.

Tweleve months ago I stated that we're in for a signifiant price rebound, and that price were set to accelerate this summer...and here we are...

Percy1983

Out of interest can we go back a few years (say 2009) find the average house price then apply the RM index to it form then until now and see how close it is.

My guess is the average house price will be around £1.2m according to the RM index.

IveSeenTheLight

Percy1983 wrote: »

Out of interest can we go back a few years (say 2009) find the average house price then apply the RM index to it form then until now and see how close it is.

My guess is the average house price will be around £1.2m according to the RM index.

My guess is that you would be incorrect, but understand you want to over exaggerate to make a point.

Why do certain people always want to select the trough in house price cycles?

Percy1983

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

My guess is that you would be incorrect, but understand you want to over exaggerate to make a point.

Why do certain people always want to select the trough in house price cycles?

Actually I wasn't trying to exaggertate, my point is the RM index shows no relation to the real indexes ie Land registry.

We have discussed it many times, the index is completely flawed to which I would like to think both bull and bear could agree.

I suppose hamish does need to cling to whatever 'good news' he can find.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Percy1983 wrote: »

RM index shows no relation to the real indexes

Over the last 12 months....

Rightmove +2.7%

Acadametrics +2.7%

Halifax +2.6%

ONS +2.7%

Nationwide +1.1%

Land Reg +0.7%

Rightmove is right in line with the majority of the 5 major "sold prices" indices.

I suppose hamish does need to cling to whatever 'good news' he can find.

Not having to cling very hard at the moment Percy.

Every index agrees prices are rising.;)

wotsthat

Percy1983 wrote: »

Out of interest can we go back a few years (say 2009) find the average house price then apply the RM index to it form then until now and see how close it is.

My guess is the average house price will be around £1.2m according to the RM index.

Why is the RM index at less than a quarter of your £1.2m then?

There's a relationship between all the major indexes - they only differ because of differing methodologies and datasets.

Percy1983 wrote: »

We have discussed it many times, the index is completely flawed to which I would like to think both bull and bear could agree.

Is it completely flawed because it measures asking prices or is there something about the methodology that you think isn't being consistently applied.

ruggedtoast

I see now that the problem is that house prices aren't high enough yet. Hopefully when the average flat finally gets up to £500,000 per bedroom then young families will be able to buy again.

I wish that bally government of ours would just get on with robbing tax payers to pay for it.

Percy1983

wotsthat wrote: »

Why is the RM index at less than a quarter of your £1.2m then?

There's a relationship between all the major indexes - they only differ because of differing methodologies and datasets.



Is it completely flawed because it measures asking prices or is there something about the methodology that you think isn't being consistently applied.

Well it being based on asking prices in part of the the problem, the other part being there is no tracking of prices falling.

IE, a house gets listed at £120k, (RM then record £120k), 2 months later its reduced to £110k (RM don't show this), them it sells at £105k (RM don't record this either).

So the only real index (land registry) records £105k and RM records £120k, which is showing what is really happening?

An increase in the RM index showing nothing but the wishes of people when they first list there house, I could list my house at £1m tomorrow and get the RM a nice kick upwards, but its never going to sell.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Percy1983 wrote: »

So the only real index (land registry) .

What makes you think Land Reg is the only "real index"?

In many ways, the free monthly index produced by Land reg is the most flawed, relying as it does on seriously incomplete data.

The index usually considered to be most accurate is Acadametrics, which uses the complete Land Reg dataset but actually produces an "average".

Or alternatively, you could use the other Land Registry index, that also uses the full dataset, but is not free and only publishes quarterly.

Here's what it shows....



Of course all the indices are only showing you what they claim to.

Rightmove is initial asking prices, Land Reg monthly is RSR so excludes a large part of the market, ONS and Acadametrics are averages, Halifax and Nationwide are "typical", etc.

None are perfect. All are different.

But to say that LR is the only "real" one is just plain ignorant.