Is it Just Me...?

michaels

Generali wrote: »

....or are the markets coming over all '2008' on us again?

South African Rand is down 20%, Aussie dollar is down 10%, Nikkei down almost 20%, FTSE is off 10%.

Now I realize that a lot of this is from multi-year highs but my spidey sense is twitching.

'Sell in May and go away'

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

It's gotta be hugely tempting to hold on to the capital for the 5 years and put it into regulated utilities and miners to get a yield and pocket the balance. That's what I'd do but I am a bit of a gambler.

Lots of people with the same idea.

I was hoping to hang on to Severn Trent dividends for the next couple of decades but they look as though they'll be taken private. United Utilities can't be far behind. National Grid and Centrica must have people sniffing around too.

There'll be more cash chasing less yield.

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Has anyone estimated the reduction in money in circulation once Basle 3 is fully implemented?

Anyone covering the banks would have done that I would think. The trouble is there are various ideas about where we should be.

The Americans are still arguing the toss about Basel 2. Australia has almost implemented Basel 3. Basel 2.5 has been implemented now in the UK I believe.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

'Sell in May and go away'

If you stay out of the market until St Ledgers Day then I fear you'll have lost the last of the yield left to be bought.

That's if you have a trading mentality.

Graham_Devon

They simplified this on the radio earlier. They were talking about bond rates in the US increasing by -05% (think that was the number)

This was seen as quite scary, bizarely because it could mean that the US is actually starting to recover.

That recovery, will, as others have said, reduce or stop QE, something which has been built in to investors decisions.

Also mentioned earlier was the unemployment figures dropping in the US being bad news in one way, as this means that interest rates in the US are closer to rising , but as there are currently no solutions to any of the problems, and costs for business and households have increase, interest rate rises could send the economy back down again.

Having said all that, it only took the employment figures from the US today to see a surge back up in the FTSE.

I won't pretend to understand it all thoroughly, but there seems to be a fear that we could be recovering and having to deal with that recovery by removing stimulus. The problem being, there hasn't really been a recovery, theres just been a lot of stimulus.

Tide goes out, pants down situation.