Halifax May: +1.1% MoM +2.0% YoY

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wotsthat wrote: »

the Halifax figures showing a YoY increase of 2%..

That can't be right....

I'm sure somebody's signature shows them still in decline.

Now, who was that again? :think:

wotsthat

Typical mortgage payments for a new borrower - both first-time buyers and homemovers – at the long-term average loan to value ratio, have nearly halved as a proportion of disposable earnings from a peak of 48% in 2007 Quarter 3 to 28% in 2013 Quarter 1. This is significantly below the average of 36% recorded since 1984.

All the fuss about high house prices and the proportion of disposable earnings required to service the debt has nearly halved since 2007.

No wonder prices are rising.

System

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No, my previous statement was "not this month it isn't".

You've removed 3 words from what I said to make your point. Well done you!! Very clever. You'll have a bad back from all the slapping you are going to get from your chums!

My apologies, so to finally to confirm, your answer to this question.

Is affordability better than just about any time in history bar a few years at the absolute trough in the 90's?

Is: "Not this month it isn't".

I disagree to be honest. This month it is as it was last month and a fair few months before that.

ruggedtoast

This is bad news for everyone who believes money should be earned by people who can stand on their own two feet, rather than flushed out of a casino economy that ensures that young people lose every throw of the die, and have to pass what they do have onto the boomer generation; already sitting amongst mounds of chips.

This is bad news for anyone who wants some chance for their children to one day own a home, and not to be trapped in modern day serfdom to a bank or some buy to let spiv.

This is bad news for people who think a modest house to live in should be a minimum standard by which our society is judged.

Bad news for people who have a home to live in and might want to trade up, rather than the spivs with their portfolios of stud wall rabbit hutches on a 3% margin.

This is bad news for people who care more about equality, merit, and fairness than division and living in a lottery based on inheritance and chance.

This is bad news, I would think, for most right minded people.

Carl31

ess0two wrote: »

Well whats bad about it?

When i have to use more of my hard earned to pay for the same item, whilst not receiving any additional benefit, I don't usually see it as positive
As do many FTB and potential buyers, I imagine, couple that with the increased risk from interest rate fluctuation, and it doesn't paint a very exciting picture
Of course, current owners are fine, so thats OK

Turnbull2000

If you think this is a surprise, just wait 12 months for the Help to Buy fuelled Spring Bounce - with the added bonus of Funding for Lending assisted Buy-to-Let landlords piling in.

2014 - UK wide indices will return hit double digits. A nice pre-election 'gift' from Osborne.

chucknorris

ruggedtoast wrote: »

This is bad news for everyone who believes money should be earned by people who can stand on their own two feet, rather than flushed out of a casino economy that ensures that young people lose every throw of the die, and have to pass what they do have onto the boomer generation; already sitting amongst mounds of chips.

This is bad news for anyone who wants some chance for their children to one day own a home, and not to be trapped in modern day serfdom to a bank or some buy to let spiv.

This is bad news for people who think a modest house to live in should be a minimum standard by which our society is judged.

Bad news for people who have a home to live in and might want to trade up, rather than the spivs with their portfolios of stud wall rabbit hutches on a 3% margin.

This is bad news for people who care more about equality, merit, and fairness than division and living in a lottery based on inheritance and chance.

This is bad news, I would think, for most right minded people.

You seem to think that we can have falling house prices and a healthy economy, it isn't going to happen that way. By the way I am not saying that we actually have a healthy economy (far from it), but surely that's what we all want eventually and with a bit of luck we might be at teh start of one in 3 to 5 years.

System

wotsthat wrote: »

At least we're not talking about the Halifax figures showing a YoY increase of 2%.

You cunning fox.

If you look at the raw numbers it's 3.6%, I have to confess to not understanding how they smooth the annual figure. Something to do with averaging the quarters?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

If you look at the raw numbers it's 3.6%, I have to confess to not understanding how they smooth the annual figure. Something to do with averaging the quarters?

They average three months this year, and the same three months last year, then take the difference as the year on year figure.

Which is 2%.

However if you just compare April this year with April last year it's +3.6%.

So rising in real terms as well as just nominal.:)

Losing_the_way

Little by little the market is recovering.

However worryingly:-
"The relatively low level of mortgage payments in relation to income provides support
for house prices. Mortgage payments for a new borrower remain significantly below the
long-term average as a proportion of disposable earnings. Typical mortgage payments for a
new borrower - both first-time buyers and homemovers – at the long-term average loan to
value ratio, have nearly halved as a proportion of disposable earnings from a peak of 48% in
2007 Quarter 3 to 28% in 2013 Quarter 1. This is significantly below the average of 36%
recorded since 1984."
This section is confusing record low interest rates with affordability.

I wished they'd just left that out.