UK GDP surges ahead --- Q1/2013 +0.3 %

Mr._Pricklepants

MS1950 wrote: »

I must admit Mr. Pricklepants that I thought that your original use of 'surge' was somewhat tongue in cheek.....?

Yes, MS1950, just giving our resident doom mongers a taste of their own medicine.

MS1950 wrote: »

Whether up or down by fractions of a percentage point - the reality is surely that the economy continues to stagnate?

And despite the bold claim of Joe Grice Chief economist, Office for National Statistics in this BBC article, that:

“the preliminary estimates have proven to be remarkably accurate…the revision between the first and third monthly estimates is typically only one or two tenths of one percent”

this doesn’t seem to offer a great deal of comfort or confidence when the ‘preliminary estimate’ itself is only ‘three tenths of one percent’….

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22277954

I think the fact that we manage to achieve feeble growth in the current economic climate is already an achievement in itself.
We had no 'Olympic effect' this last Q, disappointing numbers in contruction, but still moderate growth.
By all means, it doesn't mean we are out of the doldrums yet, and I hesitate to use the word 'green shoots', but the overall picture is not that bad.
I expect growth to pick up with some more meaty percentages in the coming Q's.

Devon_Sailor

It could have been much better; I know the report states that the weather had less impact than the massicee snows of last year, but when you look at the sector by sector figures and see agriculture down 3.5/4%, that is entirely weather related.

If it had been a vaguely normal season, Q1 is usually a boom time for the farming sector as lambing and calving season rock into town.

Even a 1/2% jum in agriculture would have had a big impact on the overall % point.....

Virtually all other sectors experienced at least some growth.

Perhaps we should start talking up the economy a bit to build confidence, rather than knock it down with constant talk of triple dips....

DS

mystic_trev

Sibley wrote: »

House prices will go into orbit....HPC chain gang foiled again

I wouldn't use the word 'orbit' but they're certainly going up.

I look at the HPC Forum a couple of times a week, to see who's still there. These days I feel like I'm looking at some kind of 'Freak Show' when reading the postings. This morning it looks like a few of the Old Timers are admitting Capitulation. The remainder are arguing over whether prices are going up or down. The Forum nutcase, Bruce Banner, says prices in the SE are going down :rotfl: There's now no area in the SE where prices are declining, so the Guys definitely deluded!

The argument continues!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=189871&st=15

ruggedtoast

Over on hpc.co.uk they dislike this news. They are disappointed?!

grizzly1911

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

You may think whatever you like.
BTW...I didn't hear you dissecting the use of words when shortchanged described a 0.1% downwards revision as a "shock to the UK economy"

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/58075727#Comment_58075727

Idon't recall seeing the thread but then I don't don't get wrapped up in the games that some like to play on here.

In either case "more of the same" is probably a better description.

The markets don't seem that phased by today's non event.

EDit:- Whatever happened to George Howell by the way, just spotted him on the link you posted, anyone know?

Generali

grizzly1911 wrote: »

The markets don't seem that phased by today's non event.

I'd put this down as moderately good news but within the range of expectations.

Managing the recovery is going to be very hard. I know I've said it before but how to unwind emergency policies while finessing the timing is beyond my ken.

I think the economy in most of the world apart from the Eurozone is recovering quite strongly. How interest rates rise and QE is unwound (if QE is unwound, I don't think it will be) will be very interesting.

grizzly1911

Generali wrote: »

I'd put this down as moderately good news but within the range of expectations.

Managing the recovery is going to be very hard. I know I've said it before but how to unwind emergency policies while finessing the timing is beyond my ken.

I think the economy in most of the world apart from the Eurozone is recovering quite strongly. How interest rates rise and QE is unwound (if QE is unwound, I don't think it will be) will be very interesting.

I don't believe QE will be unwound either. I may have stopped the infection spreading but the patient is weakened for the medium to long term

I do wonder what the next crisis rabbit will be, there can't be many left after the constant juggling of the the last 30+ years.

At least you are in the best place apparently. Are you going for nationalisation?

There is a growing realisation, as well, that the country's unbroken 21-year run of economic growth sets it apart. The average Australian is becoming globally exceptional.

The changing face of the average Aussie
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22213218

Percy1983

It does appear to be a bit of a non event really.

With that my business is heading to its biggest summer to date, that will get a small bit of the economy going.

Mr._Pricklepants

Percy1983 wrote: »

With that my business is heading to its biggest summer to date

Considering it's your business' 2nd summer, I'd be very worried if it wasn't.

Devon_Sailor

Further reporting suggests that based on the IMF's own predictions, UK growth for 2013 and 2014 will be greater than Germany, France and many (most?) of the other Western Europe economies.

When is Christine Legarde going to be dispensing her valuable advice to Mrs Merkel or Monsieur Hollande??

DS