GDP figures expected this morning

Mallotum_X

Will it be a technical triple dip or not?

Graham_Devon

I'm gonna say it won't be a triple dip.

However, like you say, it's just a technicality. The overall picture is bobbing up and down around a lot of flatness.

Generali

No it won't. Up 0.3% which is ahead of expectations and the OBR too I believe.

Mallotum_X

and the result..

... expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013

michaels

What is interesting is how much sentiment is likely to affected by what in all probability will be a rounding error.

Was it last year when they threw everything at it includign the kichen sink (a petrol panic) but still didn't achieve positive growth?

Graham_Devon

Osbourne will be relieved!

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Osbourne will be relieved!

DLW won't!

michaels

I'm actually surprised it is that strong as it appeared that retail and leisure were very dead during the bad weather in Feb, March.

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

I'm actually surprised it is that strong as it appeared that retail and leisure were very dead during the bad weather in Feb, March.

Two sides to every coin though.

The cold weather increased the amount of money we spent on gas and electric to keep warm, which has provided a small boost for the figures.

I was listening to something not too long back, and the weather, (they stated) doesn't effect sales too much at the moment, as more and more are buying only what they need. They still need those things regardless of the weather. They stated the weather effects impulse purchases more than day to day stuff and impulse purchases are down anyway.

In other words, if were already down to essentials, cold weather won't have that much of an effect.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

What is interesting is how much sentiment is likely to affected by what in all probability will be a rounding error.

Was it last year when they threw everything at it includign the kichen sink (a petrol panic) but still didn't achieve positive growth?

0.3% isn't unknown as a rounding error but normally the ONS gets to within 0.1-0.2% overall. It's fair to say that this quarter is very likely to end up as +0.1-0.5%. The top end of that is very close to UK trend growth which is 0.5-0.6% IMHO.

Actually it's not so bad when you compare to similar economies like France and Italy (and perhaps Germany). Supply side reforms seem to be having a positive impact which is quite Thatcherite if you think about it.

michaels

I wonder what the BBC is going to do with all the articles they have written about how unprecidented a triple dip recession is....