When will UK interest rates rise? - Markets Suggest 1% is still 5 years away!

Thrugelmir

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

There is an idea that markets forecast 18 month ahead but I would tend to agree.

Like we've often discussed, forecast numbers will have changed by tomorrow.

Markets now trade in milliseconds using computer power.

johnny_storm

2015 Labour, markets realise debt will not be paid and crash, run away inflation. Interest rates increased dramatically.

CLAPTON

johnny_storm wrote: »

2015 Labour, markets realise debt will not be paid and crash, run away inflation. Interest rates increased dramatically.

government debt isn't being repaid now as we still have a budget deficit.

the rate of CPI inflation is still at 2.7% ; the current government (proudly) plans for inflation to continue for ever

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

the rate of CPI inflation is still at 2.7% ; the current government (proudly) plans for inflation to continue for ever

Would you prefer sizable tax rises instead?

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Would you prefer sizable tax rises instead?

No, I am relaxed about our national debt: indeed I favour some tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

However I don't specifically think that 2015 and a labour victory (improbable) would have any significant effect on our interest rates.

Interest rates will probably rise somewhat quickly through a sequence of 'events' currently unforecast

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

No, I am relaxed about our national debt: indeed I favour some tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

Doesn't address the issue.

Either sterling is devalued (inflation) or tax rises.

Growth will never fill the void.

I suspect tax rises will follow once the economy stabilises.

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Doesn't address the issue.

Either sterling is devalued (inflation) or tax rises.

Growth will never fill the void.

I suspect tax rises will follow once the economy stabilises.

My original post was meant to be a statement of fact and not what I wanted to happen.


I firmly believe that growth will occur and that investment by the private sector will be a significant driver and so tax cuts on companies (particualry cost of employment) will assist.

Government infrastructure spending (sadly not HS2) could also be a driver for growth.

Generali

The yield curve is being pushed down by QE and by Operation Twist as a matter of Central Bank policy. I wouldn't read too much into it right now.

It's probably a good time to get a long term fixed rate in place if you're a borrower.

Harry_Boyle

Generali wrote: »

The yield curve is being pushed down by QE and by Operation Twist as a matter of Central Bank policy. I wouldn't read too much into it right now.

It's probably a good time to get a long term fixed rate in place if you're a borrower.

I agree with you Gen, and I've been tracking the rates for 10 year fixes for a while now. Norwich and Peterborough are the current champs at 3.99%, which is a cracking rate for a 10 year fix.

JonnyBravo

Harry_Boyle wrote: »

This is called pathetic forum debator syndrome - something a lot of people on here suffer from - especially the bearish posters.

Hope that helps.

:rotfl:
Can't stop giggling.
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