Robert Shiller on BTL (in the USA)

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

The data are what they are. My parents' place was bought in Surrey in 1976 in a very nice village that has probably increased by more than average as it's now a commuter town and wasn't in '76.

That house is possibly worth £450k having been bought for £20,000. There is no way that any house bought in the same time in a similar area is worth £2,000,000 unless a hovel was knocked down and a palace built in its place.

I call BS. Sorry mate.

The only places that have appreciated remotely like that are a handful of oast houses but they've had fortunes spent on them so hardly comparing like with like.

Well for example had a client recently in Berks, paid £5k in 1971, now it's worth £600k and it's a bit sh111ty tbh. A 5 bed detatched. Perfectly typical scenario.

What part of Surrey - I can do some land reg searches perhaps.

I know IFA's that sank thier money into packaged investments but in the main they have not doen nearly as well as thier originally similarly placed clients that instead invested thier lot in property.

Furthermore I admire those that want to paddle thier own canoe rather than rely on some wet fund manager to do thier bidding.

the_flying_pig

Conrad wrote: »

...I know IFA's that sank thier money into packaged investments but in the main they have not doen nearly as well as thier originally similarly placed clients that instead invested thier lot in property.

Furthermore I admire those that want to paddle thier own canoe rather than rely on some wet fund manager to do thier bidding.

"paddle thier own canoe" as in take a punt on future interest rate setting/mortgage regulation/planning laws etc, sit back & see hat happens?

michaels

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Impact of financial services including insurance.

During the period 1975 - 1985 financial services averaged 4.8% of GDP.

During the period 1995 - 2005 financial services averaged 7.5% of GDP.

Simply put unsustainable.

Surely you might see similar figures for South Korea electronics but easily explained by a large proportion of the output being exported - perhaps a lot more of the financial services output during the later period was done on behalf of foreigners?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Surely you might see similar figures for South Korea electronics but easily explained by a large proportion of the outut bieng exported - perhaps a lot more of the finacnial services output during the later period was done on behalf of foreigners?

Totally agree.

China's exported boom for the past 20 years has been based on a low exchange rate.

Capital markets are global. The eventual outcome of the GFC will see winners and losers.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Surely you might see similar figures for South Korea electronics but easily explained by a large proportion of the outut bieng exported - perhaps a lot more of the finacnial services output during the later period was done on behalf of foreigners?

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Impact of financial services including insurance.

During the period 1975 - 1985 financial services averaged 4.8% of GDP.

During the period 1995 - 2005 financial services averaged 7.5% of GDP.

Simply put unsustainable.

Annecdotally I can say that many large investment banks moved large proportions of what they do from the rest of the world to London. It is sustainable for the UK to perform a permanently higher level of financial services but probably not for the proportion to continue to increase indefinitely, rather like the Koreans and their shipbuilding.