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Debate House Prices
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Government repressing house prices.
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »No, because with smaller deposit requirements and less mortgage rationing, more FTB-s would be able to buy.
Including those at the lower end of the income spectrum who buy cheaper houses.
Therefore the average paid would also have fallen.
Unless you really think the average FTB house price rose markedly between 2007 and 2010? :rotfl:
So prices will fall then?
Does that mean that the UK average prices on the indexes will be pulled down? :eek:0 -
shortchanged wrote: »So prices will fall then?
No.
The simple mean average used by the CML will reduce.Does that mean that the UK average prices on the indexes will be pulled down? :eek:
Not on the ones that mix adjust.
Rightmove may well fall as they use a simple arithmetic mean..
Halifax, LR, ONS, Acadametrics and NW shouldn't, as they all either mix adjust and/or use standardised typical properties.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
A much more recent CML report http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3401 suggests that in November 2012 the average FTB mortgage was just under £125K, which is 80% LTV (so a purchase price of over £155K). They also suggest that the income of the average FTB is £38,640.
It makes me wonder what their definition of a FTB is, and who is buying properties at the cheaper end of the market.
Another alternative explanation from the CML figures is that a strong FTB market has given rise to an increase in the price of typical FTB properties from £126K in 2007 to £155K now. A 23% rise.
Something doesn’t add up in the CML stats."When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty." - Thomas Jefferson0 -
MacMickster wrote: »I would question the stated incomes. Surely most first-time buyers would have below-average incomes .
You're confusing the average income of all people with the average income of actual house buyers.
Remember, the bottom earning 30% have never been able to afford to buy houses....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What you are really describing there is the fact that vastly more people will be able to buy houses.
In theory, yes.
Might it be that investors (existing or potential landlords) will see HPI return, and start to "pile in" ?30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
It's a dead market for FTBs, unless mum & dad can bail them out - therein lies the issue. If you are 45 and have plenty of equity then there is no crisis, but for a 30 year old with no big savings it's a sticky situation.0
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The UK banks lost £15 on overseas mortgages for every £1 they lost in the UK.;)
Might they not have lost a lot more in the UK had they not had "a little extra" help from the taxpayer ?30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
shortchanged wrote: »Just wondering Hamish, why is the purchase price up £10,000 in 2010 from 2007.
I'm sorry Hamish but that certainly does not sound right. Those figures are a crock of s*it.
The figures don't take into account several issues, as discussed before now, though he keeps on using it.0 -
MacMickster wrote: »
Something doesn’t add up in the CML stats.
It's complicated.
There are a number of things going on at the same time with these stats, and they don't mix adjust in any way.
1. The mix of FTB-s has changed since 2007, as higher deposits and mortgage rationing have excluded the lower earners who would buy lower priced houses.
2. The mix of properties for sale has changed since 2007 as fewer 1 bed flats and studios have been built over the last 5 years, and many of the existing ones are in negative equity and so cannot sell.
3. The geographic mix of people buying has changed, with more expensive areas like London accounting for a higher percentage of sales than they did in 2007.
4. The change in LTV will also change the above, on an ongoing basis. So the decrease in LTV from 2007 to 201 changed the ability of certain people to buy, and the increase in LTV since 2010, from 75% to 80%, has resulted in changed FTB behaviour again.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
In theory, yes.
So then the only way to keep HPI from happening is to keep preventing that million plus (and growing) people from buying.
How long do you think that can last?
And is forcing an entire generation to enrich their landlords instead of themselves a price worth paying to prevent a few grand in HPI?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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