Hmm, pound is looking a bit scary today!

globalds

It looks like hedge fund money is getting in on the pound falling ..

Can the tail wag the dog on this one ?

Can all that wealth help cause the pound to drop ? ..
If so how ?

sabretoothtigger

It'll be trade balance or supply and demand that moves the rate. Hedge funds dont wag dogs If they held alot of gilts, they'd not be shorting depends who moves what where now 1/3 is held by BOE anyway

So long as the Dollar isnt dropping as well, I realise 1.40 makes us one of the strongest currencies. I think we make the top list for most expensive currency unit, things would have to change alot more for that not to be true

It still seems like typical political speak to say, weaker pound makes us more competitive. Like one of those fallacies churned out as truth when its serving some other purpose.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-valued_currency_unit

$ and reserve currency

worldtraveller

GBP has just taken a "dive" to USD 1.5330.

The minutes of Friday's meeting of the MPC showed a 6-3 split in favour of holding QE at £375 billion. Mervyn, Paul Fisher and David Miles voted for an increase in bond purchases of £25 billion.

More QE on the way soon?

Generali

worldtraveller wrote: »

GBP has just taken a "dive" to USD 1.5330

That's the lowest since June 2012 when, IIRC, the sky also didn't fall in.

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

That's the lowest since June 2012 when, IIRC, the sky also didn't fall in.

Do you think that's what we are all suggesting will happen?

You appear to be on a defensive when people talk about this.

sabretoothtigger

It feels more of a wild move then it is, longer term its more a return to norm. If we get to 1.45 then thats your full strength move. If then go past that marker, it starts to become exceptional especially occurring all at once, markets are not supposed to move in one direction for very long unless its badly affected by some bias

Im not certain why on the news exactly but chart wise we just peaked from a certain point, if I noticed this then I guess some people with money definitely did and sold accordingly. So to some extent we are coasting down hill, it may not be quite as continuous a sell off as appears now
If news, sentiment and chart 'momentum' all coincide it kinda explains part of why its moved to this extent.

Feb 19, 2013 23:40 GMT
Sterling Falls on Downgrade Rumour

The pound hit a fresh seven-month low on worries about the BOE minutes and a downgrade rumor. The Australian dollar was the best performer on the day. Upcoming events include the Japanese trade balance and comments from the RNBZ leader. A rumour circulated in early US trading that S&P was prepared to downgrade the UK's sovereign rating. Cable slipped 30 pips to 1.5460 and eventually to a 7-month low of 1.5416. Both GBPUSD Premium shorts remain in progress as do USDCAD longs.

Not sure why its down 0.75% as of 9.30am but sterling is dropping so much its making my gold fund look far less bad then it would do on weaker gold.
Thats partly why I buy or sell stuff, much less excuse to hold off a buy with weak currency looming and vice versa

^^ Gold is down a similar amount which I guess makes it about even for me (as its sold in dollars)

Duh, I just caught up.

UK Unemployment Rate (ILO) announcement - Actual: 7.8%, Expected: 7.7% pic.twitter.com/kOQBwxHQ

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

That's the lowest since June 2012 when, IIRC, the sky also didn't fall in.

Given the choice between the sky falling in and a shrill new thread each time petrol goes up by a penny I'll take the sky falling in.

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Do you think that's what we are all suggesting will happen?

You appear to be on a defensive when people talk about this.

Not really. It just gets a bit repetitive when people keep mistaking the GBP/USD exchange rate for a referendum on the state of the UK economy.

It would take posters Google and 10 minutes to educate themselves on what drives exchange rates but hey, perhaps it's better to post any old rubbish in ignorance and chuck around accusations when someone calls it as being a bit credulous, getting this wrong for the umpteenth time.

Your choice of course. I'm a firm believer in freedom of speech.

We can do it all again next time the pound drops a couple of percent in a month. I'm looking forward to it already.

Generali

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

It feels more of a wild move then it is, longer term its more a return to norm. If we get to 1.45 then thats your full strength move. If then go past that marker, it starts to become exceptional especially occurring all at once, markets are not supposed to move in one direction for very long unless its badly affected by some bias

Im not certain why on the news exactly but chart wise we just peaked from a certain point, if I noticed this then I guess some people with money definitely did and sold accordingly. So to some extent we are coasting down hill, it may not be quite as continuous a sell off as appears now
If news, sentiment and chart 'momentum' all coincide it kinda explains part of why its moved to this extent.



Not sure why its down 0.75% as of 9.30am but sterling is dropping so much its making my gold fund look far less bad then it would do on weaker gold.
Thats partly why I buy or sell stuff, much less excuse to hold off a buy with weak currency looming and vice versa

^^ Gold is down a similar amount which I guess makes it about even for me (as its sold in dollars)

Ask yourself what has really changed over the last couple of months (I'll give you a clue, look at ECB and BoE Central Bank policies announced over the past 2 months).

There has been no downgrade and no change to the possibility of a downgrade. There have been changes to Central Bank policies however.

Graham_Devon

Yer alright, can't be bothered with your somewhat constant put downs anymore generali. I'm right in what I said on this thread, evidence by the price now at the pumps, backed up by the AA and the fuel association.

I'm not the only one concered, plenty of others are too.

That will do me. Whether you feel I am right or wrong I really couldn't care less about.