Hmm, pound is looking a bit scary today!

worldtraveller

GBP touched a 2.1/2-year low today of USD1.4973, probably due to the possibility of more QE from the BOE MPC later today.

Generali

purch wrote: »

USD 680,000 to USD 630,000 depending on actual weight.

I'll be right if the pound keeps up its current trajectory.

sabretoothtigger

I suppose you could just buy "paper gold", but the goldbugs keep telling us thats a bad idea....

Perth mint 'paper' would require doubt of the Australian government but why would they undermine their own gold mine industry by attacking those who hold the metal as security.

They dont have large debts to motivate this kind of move, so probably safer then keeping it personally even.
Silver storage might be bulky, not many are rich enough to have too much gold though ? 12k isnt much cost vs a bullion bar ?

Im not a fan of physical I think central banks should be doing this or whoever issues loan notes enmasse.
A person shouldnt need it in this age of instant transfer, I like that my gold fund manager bought visa shares I think he gets it

Australia's bond credit rating is rated AAA by all three major ratings agencies and is expected to peak at 28% of total Australian GDP in 2013

quick google, sounds amazing compared to us.

Generali

An update for fans of arbitrary lines in the sand for asset prices. The FTSE, actually more of an indicator of the expected future health of the UK's economy than the Pound, is above 6500 for the first time since 2007.

Mr_Mumble

Generali wrote: »

An update for fans of arbitrary lines in the sand for asset prices. The FTSE, actually more of an indicator of the expected future health of the UK's economy than the Pound

Less than one-third of revenue for FTSE-100 companies comes from Britain. The FTSE-100 is outperforming other international indices simply because it is Sterling-based.

Ceteris paribus, Sterling falls the FTSE-100 will rise, simples.

vivatifosi

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

Less than one-third of revenue for FTSE-100 companies comes from Britain. The FTSE-100 is outperforming other international indices simply because it is Sterling-based.

Ceteris paribus, Sterling falls the FTSE-100 will rise, simples.

If anyone's interested, it's worth looking at the world's 100 top transnational corporations (non-fin) and the financial equivalent list, from UNCTAD.

The latest editions are here, tables 28 and 30. Will download in Excel.

http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/Annex-Tables.aspx?An=1,30,,

purch

Cable is looking quite worrying on a longer term technical basis.

Below 1.48 there is not a lot of support or previous action, other then the dip to 1.0508 in 1985. That 40c dip itself was over a relatively short period of time, and the recovery back above 1.48 was achieved just as quickly.

Previous dips below this level were attributable to the ERM debacle, the 2001 attacks and the initial reaction to the financial crisis.

It's not looking particularly comfortable.

Graham_Devon

purch wrote: »

Cable is looking quite worrying on a longer term technical basis.

Below 1.48 there is not a lot of support or previous action, other then the dip to 1.0508 in 1985. That 40c dip itself was over a relatively short period of time, and the recovery back above 1.48 was achieved just as quickly.

Previous dips below this level were attributable to the ERM debacle, the 2001 attacks and the initial reaction to the financial crisis.

It's not looking particularly comfortable.

This is exactly the plan though, we were led to believe. Lower the value of the pound and allow exporters to thrive. Though exporters are not thriving.

Was talked about on the radio earlier, and the BOE will take credit for where the pound is and see it as an achievement. However, the pound is reactive to US news. It appears were being left behind. Whether that's left behind a real recovery or left behind in printing magic money is yet to be seen.

Apparently there is a chance now of an ERM style issue as you state. It's not like what happened in 2008. This is a UK issue.

purch

As is usual, the plans appear to be being made after the events, rather than the other way around :eek:

sabretoothtigger

I doubt parity occurs this year. If I was betting, I'd take the odds for a return to 2 dollars if anything

But for the moment 1.46 or so is a target. Its in the realm of the last political coronation so are still doing battle with near term events


Fed is spending 1tn this year. The main thing in their favour is that Japan is even more crazy (potentially) and UK is comparatively not even close on that race for this year so us beating them all in a decline longer term I think requires more juice.
We take another dip today on bad production but also our trade balance is better, I guess because as we spend less, we also import less

BOJ Speculation Sparks Dollar Rally

Snapshot: -Dollar eases a touch versus yen; Treasury yields unchanged; stock futures lower; ICE April Brent down 30c at $109.92, Nymex April crude down 22c at $91.84; gold +0.2% at $1,582.80

-Watch for: NFIB Small Business, Redbook, Job Openings & Labor Turnover

News: Dollar Hits 3.5-Yr High Vs Yen Amid Speculation For Early BOJ Moves; Japanese Consumer Optimism Highest Since 2007; German Economy Seen on Verge of Recovery;

Markets Outlook: Forex: In currency markets, the dollar eased back a little against the yen, after hitting a fresh three-and-a-half year high of Y96.71 earlier as speculation grew that the Bank of Japan would take early easing action. Expectations were fueled by a Nikkei article Tuesday suggesting that Haruhiko Kuroda, the government's nominee for next head of the BOJ, hinted he may take new monetary easing steps soon after he takes office next week. "We expect the BOJ to extend its asset-purchase program in an aggressive manner going forward - likely already at the April meeting - and the direction for USD/JPY should be higher still albeit the pace of acceleration could soften somewhat from here," said Danske Bank.

. Bonds: Treasurys remained in 'simmer mode' said SocGen and need another sizeable surprise "to shake them out of their torpor." The bank noted, however, that "we need to keep an eye on technicals... a break above 2.09% for the 10-year would confirm a further upward move in yields."

Equities: Stock futures edged lower Tuesday as investors took a breather and awaited fresh catalysts following recent strength. "Although the S&P is within a whisker of fresh all time highs, history has shown us that in both 2000 and 2007 when it's been around this level, it's been the tipping point for a considerable sell-off," said Fawad Razaqzada, strategist at GFT Markets. "Whether 2013 can be any different remains to be seen - there's that abundant QE driving prices higher but if sentiment changes then the rush for the exits is likely to be rather swift."

Commodities: Chinese demand for crude oil fell 8.5% month-on-month in February, JBC Energy analysts pointed out, but they expect China to raise its overall demand for oil through 2013. "In the long run...Chinese crude imports are expected to continue on their upward trajectory, rising by about 350,000 b/d this year due primarily to an increase in refining capacity of 840,000 b/d," JBC said. They said China is expected to continue diversifying its crude suppliers to increase energy security, seeking more crude from Latin America, Russia and Africa. Spot gold edged slightly higher in Europe, but overall the metal remained in the deadlock flat trade it has held throughout March so far, hovering around the $1,580/oz mark. Analysts at ANZ noted that while upside moves remain resistant to range breakouts, gold selloffs such as that seen Friday after an upbeat payrolls reading, continue to attract heavy short covering and support. "The short-term technical outlook is neutral while gold remains range-bound, but the bias remains lower," the bank said, noting waning investment interest in gold exchange-traded funds.

Top Stories of the Day: Dollar Hits 3.5-Yr High Vs Yen Amid Speculation For Early BOJ Moves The dollar rose to a fresh three-and-a-half year high against the yen Tuesday in Asia as speculation grew that the Bank of Japan would take early easing action, and as the outlook for a U.S. economic recovery continues to improve. Senate Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Government-Funding Bill Senate lawmakers introduced legislation on Monday night that shies away from funding two of President Barack Obama's programs under the Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory overhaul. Ryan Plan Revives '12 Election Issues Republican House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan plans to introduce a proposal to overhaul Medicare and Medicaid that is almost identical to the Republican presidential platform in the 2012 election. Japanese Consumer Optimism Highest Since 2007 Consumer sentiment in Japan in February is at its highest level in more than five-and-a-half years, the government says, as expectations of an economic upturn sparked by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government continue to mount. German Economy Seen on Verge of Recovery The German economy is on the verge of a recovery over the next few months after declining towards the end of last year, according to the country's Economy Ministry. UK Industrial Production Falls Again U.K. industrial production falls again in January, suffering from the suspension of production at yet another North Sea oilfield and raising the risk of a third U.K. recession in five years. Germany Seeks No New Borrowing in 2015 Germany's federal government is targeting new borrowing of €6.4 billion in 2014, down sharply from a planned €17.1 billion this year, and expects to need no new debt in 2015. Both Sides of SEC Nominee Face Heat Lawmakers grilling Mary Jo White, President Barack Obama's nominee for chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, on Tuesday will have to weigh two seemingly contradictory versions of the attorney. China's Steel Production Rises China produced a record amount of steel for a second-consecutive month in February even as its economy cooled, reflecting the difficulty many mills face in cutting output despite longstanding overcapacity in the industry. Small Banks Hit by Insurance Many small U.S. banks are feeling a financial pinch from the government's efforts to punish executives and directors of banks that collapsed at the height of the financial crisis.

Dow Jones Newswires March 12, 2013 06:07 ET (10:07 GMT)