Recent PV installation statistics.

rogerblack

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/weekly-solar-pv-installation-and-capacity-based-on-registration-date



Shows the unfortunate shape of the demand for solar, and the fundamental problems of the industry faced with the cliff-edges of FIT changes.
Showing the demand bumping around 1500/week - since Aug 2012.
A rough guess might be that there is 1000 pounds of profit in each installation, so £1.5M/week, or around a 70 million pound industry (at current install rates.

The spiky nature of demand has unfortunate consequences.
Either firms use poorly trained inexperienced staff during the peak periods, or have too many staff during the troughs.
Both of these do bad things, either poorly installed panels, installed by people who take longer and cost more, excess staff during down-times, or buisness failure.

All of the above drives up install costs, as it costs more to install PV panels if your buisness is not ticking over smoothly.
This indirectly drives up FIT rates, due to the installation cost not falling as fast as it might.

I wish that they'd remove the silly cliff-edges, and make FIT dependant on installation week, decreasing at a preset level (say .5%/week) for a preset period - say 6 months.
This would remove all the cliff-edges, and help the industry plan better, and become more efficient, with more secure jobs.

Martyn1981

rogerblack wrote: »

I wish that they'd remove the silly cliff-edges, and make FIT dependant on installation week, decreasing at a preset level (say .5%/week) for a preset period - say 6 months.
This would remove all the cliff-edges, and help the industry plan better, and become more efficient, with more secure jobs.

Hopefully the worst is over now with the 'digression based on installs' system. But I feel the media are also strongly to blame, first telling everyone to install PV, then telling them the good returns are over - despite prices now being so good.

Next review date is 1/2/13 with no drop, the next one 1/5/13 will be based on installs up to 31/1/13 (I think?) and these won't be high enough to trigger a digression, if I'm understanding this correctly.

So we have the 15.44p rate (maybe with inflation in April?) till the 1/8/13. So hopefully a good year for PV and a return of momentum to the industry, without the craziness of late 2011 / early 2012.

Apparently the system won't allow 3 consecutive quarters of zero reduction, so 1/8/13 will at the very least have a 3.5% reduction. But I suspect installs will gather pace and lead to a larger reduction. Even 10p FIT appears to work quite well now against current prices IMO.

(sorry about all the ??'s)

Mart.

WestonDave

A better summer might help as well - its hard to get excited about installing solar when its wall to wall grey skies. I'm sure in reality the generation figures have been around expectation but that's not the impression which potential buyers will be getting with their own eyes.

Energetic_2

We're hearing that panel prices are on the rise due to the pound slowly dying. Add this to a rumoured anti-dumping levy on Chinese panels by the EU and we could see instalation figures slide further still.

We're still quoting paybacks and returns as good as 2011 (lower install cost and less annual income) but where is the media this time? Confidence and awareness in the scheme has been lost, if people really knew how good it was at the moment we'd be seeing much higher figures.

When's the last time you saw an add for a PV company? If you live round our way you'll be seeing them this weekend...

jamesingram

fact is current prices make them available to a far larger range of people than 1-2 years ago . £6,000 for 4kW rather than £10-12 , 2 years ago. Half the price , but they still produce the same amount of electricity

WestonDave

Trouble is - some of the adverts I am seeing just look like leftovers from the 43p days, or look like scams - I keep seeing one talking about earning £17k from the government etc.

I was talking to a neighbour just before Christmas - he was asking about our panels and suggested they might get some at some point when they decide whether or not to do an extension etc. I suspect that he is not alone in now treating it as something to do at the right time rather than as part of a headlong rush before the deal changes. That might be a better long term approach.