Land reg, up 0.8% December

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not really.

It's Alister Heath, a fairly notorious property bear, and he's wrong on so many levels.

Prices remain 10% below peak, not 24%.

You don't buy houses with some fictional, made-up, inflation adjusted currency.

You don't go to a vendor and say, "Despite the house next door selling for 10% less than peak last week, I'd like to pay you 24% less than peak, because I read somewhere that 'real terms falls' were that level".

In the current context, "real terms falls" means that houses stayed expensive, AND the cost of everything else went up as well.

It's of no help to those who deferred purchase hoping for falls, it's of no hindrance to those who bought in recent years (particularly as their mortgage will have "fallen" by an equal amount in "real terms") so it just seems a completely pointless measure.

real terms falls are exceptionally relevant to a journo trying to, y'know, properly put in context the house price falls that we've seen, & perhaps give a feel about just how overvalued property was.

you're absolutely right that real term falls are irrelevant to school playground debates about who'd have been better off by doing x, who 'missed the boat', etc. but i doubt that this sort of thing was what the author was aiming for.

Rinoa

Fella wrote: »

Adjusting for inflation isn't terminology, it's (very) basic economics.

An interesting article here illustrating the very real falls in real-term house values since the peak:

http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/allister-heath/outside-prime-london-house-prices-are-falling-back-earth

Is there an article illustrating the very real-term falls in real-term outstanding mortgage balances?

ukcarper

Rinoa wrote: »

Is there an article illustrating the very real-term falls in real-term outstanding mortgage balances?

and repayments for that matter

Graham_Devon

Fella wrote: »

Adjusting for inflation isn't terminology, it's (very) basic economics.

Something Hamish is very keen to point out when figures are showing "the wrong thing".

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

Is there an article illustrating the very real-term falls in real-term outstanding mortgage balances?

They never answer that one.:(

ukcarper

Real term falls are meaningless to most people it's price in relation to wage increases that matters.

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

Real term falls are meaningless to most people it's price in relation to wage increases that matters.

So howcome real terms rises are perfectly OK?

sabretoothtigger

I doubt the hpc are so dull as to expect prices to fall when they know full well prices go up over time for the majority of things. Price of sterling has halved since 1990, generally price of anything then marked in sterling must double just to stay level.

I cant imagine they are like !!!!!! Dastardly and Mutley cursing their luck as their schemes are foiled once again by inflation, maybe next month they can catch the pigeon and house prices will crash.

That would be funny if an entire forum is devotedly ignoring reality but its far more realistic to consider houses vs oil or food or just any staple stable cost even, there house prices might be falling.

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So howcome real terms rises are perfectly OK?

I don't think I've heard anybody tall about real time rises.

Perhaps you can explain how real time falls help people wanting to buy?

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think I've heard anybody tall about real time rises.

Seriously?

You want to visit one of the BTL threads, discussing how much the rent has gone up against incomes etc and how great it all is.