Uh ohh.....please not more snow!

wotsthat

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Sales of rock salt, snow shovels, deicers, washer fluid, hats gloves , warm clothes, boots are doing pretty well.

The other item that is helping the motoring sector is the increased sales of winter grade tyres. I do wonder how my first car made it on cross plys.

That's exactly the point - it's winter - retailers have shifted the sun cream and replaced them with warm clothes. Peoples buying patterns can be predicted by the season.

However, the UK's weather is very changeable and unpredictable. A dumping of snow always causes disruption because we don't prepare (maybe it's not worth investing ££'s in winter infrastructure when typically the disruption lasts only a couple of days). The stores had warm clothes and the like the week before last too - I was out cycling with shorts on!

Last Friday Tesco's in Exeter were probably doing a roaring trade in sledges, shovels and salt. Just 100 odd miles away in Penzanze it was +10C.

shortchanged_2

Can we blame the weather on last months poor retail figures?

grizzly1911

wotsthat wrote: »

That's exactly the point - it's winter - retailers have shifted the sun cream and replaced them with warm clothes. Peoples buying patterns can be predicted by the season.

However, the UK's weather is very changeable and unpredictable. A dumping of snow always causes disruption because we don't prepare (maybe it's not worth investing ££'s in winter infrastructure when typically the disruption lasts only a couple of days). The stores had warm clothes and the like the week before last too - I was out cycling with shorts on!

Last Friday Tesco's in Exeter were probably doing a roaring trade in sledges, shovels and salt. Just 100 odd miles away in Penzanze it was +10C.

Just been into town and our local undependent DIy store was just taking delivery of more sledges, couriered in. - retail opportunity. It is snowing quite heavily for now but is suppose they will keep. if need be.

Does energy form part of the figures?

I wonder what effect a long warm spell would have at this time of year instead?

Being unprepared always interests me as since I can remember we have always had spells of frost, snow and ice in winter.

Appreciate your point about somewhere like Penzance, Scilly Isles, Lleyn Peninsula, and Poolewe.

wymondham

mystic_trev wrote: »

I'm old enough to remember the Winter of 1963, one of the coldest Winters on record in England and Wales. We had no central heating, and I walked the two miles to school most days.......aged 8.

compare that to today. We have about 2cm of snow and all roads are pretty much clear. The local school is closed due to the coaches having 'problems' ........

Generali

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Does energy form part of the figures?

All accounted for output goes into making up GDP. If you buy a leek from the supermarket then the value as it goes along the chain is part of GDP. If you grow one in your back yard and pick it yourself it isn't.

Similarly, if you set a fire yourself from wood in your garden then there is no GDP addition (unless you use that fire to make something that you later sell) but if you burn ancient forests that have been dug up and sold to you as electricity then that adds to GDP.

GDP is highly flawed and economists recognise that. TBH it's the political junkies that put more faith in GDP than economists and it's the former that want GDP to be propped up for its own sake rather than because of the outcome.

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

Can we blame the weather on last months poor retail figures?

December's weather wasn't that exciting and I can't see any specific weather events we can blame.

I know you're trying to look on the bright side but you might have to accept that it's a recession so that's going to put pressure on retail spending.

IveSeenTheLight

grizzly1911 wrote: »

+1.

A day or two of bad weather isn't going to materially affect GDP it simply displaces/delays it. At this time of year social discretionary spend is possibly at it's lowest point anyway.

I accept that prolonged periods would have an impact.

I gather you do not understand the accounting fctor in this.

Consider this month, if a weeks revenue is reduced because of the weather, the ability for people to go out and work, the ability of people to go out and spend, it does not mean that you will have double revenue the following week.

Once we roll over to a new month, we could see Janary's GDP lower as a result

It's not just about peoples ability to go out and work / spend, consider the amount of schoolchildren sent home where parents need to take time off to look after.

When you consider all the factors, you can easily understand why GDP can be lower because of adverse weather conditions.

IveSeenTheLight

wymondham wrote: »

compare that to today. We have about 2cm of snow and all roads are pretty much clear. The local school is closed due to the coaches having 'problems' ........

How many parents of said school are forced to take time off to look after the children?

grizzly1911

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I gather you do not understand the accounting fctor in this.

I fully understand the accounting factor in this I just don't believe the knee trembling fear of lower GDP and the catastrophic effect a couple of bad days of weather is going to make.

Consider this month, if a weeks revenue is reduced because of the weather, the ability for people to go out and work, the ability of people to go out and spend, it does not mean that you will have double revenue the following week.


If you are put off going fro a Costa Coffe fair enough or a lunch out but if you need or want something you will still get it, perhaps not today. The main drivers of GDP will still happen.

Once we roll over to a new month, we could see Janary's GDP lower as a result

Perhaps not double but I doubt we have suddenly halved the revenue stream. One swallow doesn't make a spring.

It's not just about peoples ability to go out and work / spend, consider the amount of schoolchildren sent home where parents need to take time off to look after.

I accept that but if you are affected will you suddenly become 100% ineffective? If you are in on Wednesday will you not catch up the majority of what you need?

When you consider all the factors, you can easily understand why GDP can be lower because of adverse weather conditions.

I can see that it may drop a little but against your typical January?

gorgeyetsun

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I thought you said on another thread you couldn't get to work without your car, no other means of transport was viable.

How does that compute if similar people find roads impassable?

On internet forums, people's circumstances change to meet their current argument. When petrol prices rise, that poster will be all over it with nary a mention of remote working. S'funny.