Solar ... In the news

Dave_Fowler

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Big power out, solar in: UBS urges investors to join renewables revolution

Mart.

Hi Mart,

An interesting set of thoughts.

Ideally, if sufficient storage were available to store a significant portion of day's energy, then the power production could be run at a constant rate throughout the day which would optimise the power production efficiency and thereby reduce carbon emissions.

Do you think that if the power companies were to put the £millions they are spending on new plant and modernising old plant into developing storage technology the country could actually reduce the total peak power production capacity?

I wonder how many years we are away from achieving this.

Dave F

Martyn1981

Hiya Dave, yep, I thought it was interesting too.

Looking at the effect that increased efficiency has already had on the peak (low energy bulbs, lower energy fridges, freezers, tvs etc) then it's not as hard as it looks.

But, you do need to look at this from two opposing viewpoints. Today ...... surely not, challenge too big, costs, change etc etc. But I think most people, if asked to sit calmly and ponder 10 to 20 years ahead, would have little doubt that storage will develop massively ..... given that so much is happening already.

I think I've posted articles on here, but if not, there are many instances of 'local' storage (batteries in shipping containers ~ 1MWh) being used to levelise demand and generation, sometimes for companies, and sometimes for communities. These can only move forward.

But the smaller scale, demand side shouldn't be ignored, though at first it's hard to believe that this could have any effect. This is purely my ponderings, but:-

it's borderline economic to add about 2kWh of useable storage to a domestic PV system (that's about 5kWh of FLA's plus associated 'bits'). By borderline, you might just about breakeven after 10 years, when you need to scrap the batts and start again.

However, the cost of Lithium batts is falling, and more and more fully integrated systems are appearing - systems where the main inverter is used to charge the batts, and recover the leccy when needed. So I can't imagine how PV won't be installed (in 10 to 20 years) without 2 to 4kWh of useable storage (2.5 to 5kWh of batts).

Following on from that assumption, here comes the next (and it's a biggy), assume 20% of properties with PV and 2kWh of useable storage. That's about 5m properties and 10GWh. If the batts are charged, then across the peak (5pm to 7pm) that works out at 5GW of reduced demand, almost enough to wipe out the peak.

Only silly ponderings, but if this is theoretically achievable from domestic PV, then I can only imagine what large scale wind matched to industrial scale storage could achieve.

Large caveat - these massive changes/improvements would apply to the average day. But for longer non-average periods I still can't see how we'll avoid having sizeable amounts of gas storage/generation. This isn't new of course, gas generation already cycles up and down by about 15GW across the day, and will probably grow larger as coal starts to disappear from our energy mix. But as gas gets used less and less (on average) how will they still make an annual profit? Will we see some sort of nationalisation?

Mart.

PS. Have read counter arguments about storage costs, suggesting that as wind and solar costs keep falling, it may actually be cheaper to install massive over-capacity, some of which goes unused at times, than to build expensive storage. Nothing is simple. M.

mac2008

Stumbled across this article on the BBC earlier - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27071303


The article claims "Peak demand on the UK grid is currently 60GW, but by 2050, the government estimates this will increase six-fold as demand for electric cars and household heating soars."


Six-fold? Really, given peak demand has actually fallen over the past few years? Anyone got a source for this?


Edit: still can't find a source that supports this - even national grid has predicted peak demand in 2035 as way lower (see http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/Future-Energy-Scenarios/) so just looks like poor journalism.

The_Green_Hornet

British Gas has launched an investigation into solar panels at dozens of schools and businesses after a series of mystery fires.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738673/Schools-warned-solar-panel-fire-risk-Free-green-scheme-halted-three-mystery-blazes.html

Another Daily Mail exclusive (aka made up) story.....

Martyn1981

Well ...... one city in one state, but it's a start.

Austin, Texas increases solar goals by 700 MW, solar to be new default source of power

The city council in the capitol city of the U.S. state of Texas has passed a sweeping resolution to strengthen solar policies and goals for its municipal utility. This includes procuring an additional 600 MW of utility-scale solar, another 100 MW of local solar and deploying energy storage.

It increases the utility's “local solar” goal to 200 MW by 2020, which includes 100 MW of behind-the-meter solar, as well as allowing third-party solar companies to participate in the residential incentive program. These increases follow on recommendations from a task force convened earlier in the year, which call for solar to be “the new default generation resource through 2024”.

Looks like the US is on the brink of a PV explosion. Add to that China's plan to install around 100GW this decade, and India's (rather ambitious) plan to install 100-150GW across the next decade, and it looks like PV is now unstoppable.

Mart.

Cardew

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Looks like the US is on the brink of a PV explosion.
Mart.

Texas is unique in the USA in that it has its own grid, coupled to the fact that peak load is for air-conditioning in the summer heat; ideal for PV generation.


To conclude from Austin that the whole of the USA is on the brink of a PV explosion is fanciful. Even in the USA PV doesn't generate at night and produces little when the weather is unfavourable!


If somewhere like New York needs xxGW to cope with max load, then it has to be provided(catered for) by 'conventional' generating plant.

Martyn1981

And another story on the PV explosion hitting the US:

US electrical generation from renewables hits 14.3%

Solar power generation in the U.S. more than doubled in the first half of 2014. Overall, electrical generation from non-hydro renewables increased 10.4% year on year.

Overall, electrical generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources expanded by 10.4% compared to the first half of 2013.

Solar-generated electricity more than doubled, growing by 115.7%, while wind power increased by 9% compared to last year, accounting for 5% of the nation's electrical generation during the first six months of the year. Biomass also grew by 4%. Geothermal power, however, dipped by 1.5% and conventional hydropower declined by 4.2%.

NB This article is comparing generation, not capacity.


Also, interesting article (ok, may have oversold that one) showing that California is not the PV leader in the US if calculated on a per-capita basis.

Arizona, Hawaii lead the U.S. in per-capita solar

While the overall market in the United States is still relatively small on per-capita levels compared to most other developed nations, it is growing rapidly, with 4.8 GW installed in 2013. This growth is particularly dramatic when viewed over the last decade, as installed solar capacities have increased more than 120x from 97 MW in 2003 to more than 12 GW at the end of 2013.

Mart.

mac2008

That the UK has reached 5GW of installed capacity is no surprise, but this article as some interesting info on how it was achieved, to those interested in such things:

http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/guest_blog/uk_solar_pv_industry_reaches_5gw_installed_capacity_3467

jimmyboy420

Did anyone see this?
http://www.theguardian.com/big-energy-debate/2014/aug/29/renewable-energy-startup-london-mayor-award
Would it interest you? It certainly would interest me!

In particular because I have a combi boiler, and therefore no easy way of using excess energy generated. So I'd rather sell it for the most possible!

Martyn1981

Hiya Jimmyboy, nice article, but did you read the comments ....... for a laugh!

Check this one out:

I do not know anyone who is against the concept of renewable energy, and I very much welcome any solutions to that end, but photovoltaic cells are not that and they are not an answer. Regardless of how creative the business model is, if the product cannot perform as intended, then there is a critical problem.

Forget opinions and perspectives for a moment and consider some objective and immutable facts: photovoltaic cells are batteries. They do not generate electricity in the sense of energy creation, but they store created energy (it is manufactured into the cells at the "dirty" power plants) and then releases it when exposed to light. Light does not generate any electricity in a solar cell, it simply releases pre-stored energy. This is why Einstein preferred to call them solar batteries rather than solar cells or panels. This is why after 20 years or so solar cells need to be replaced--the batteries run out of juice like any other battery. Solar cells only exist in the market place because of massive subsidizing that represents an economic money pit. If they operated the way people's wishes and dreams dictate rather than the way reality dictates then the factories that manufacture the panels would manufacture a bunch of them to power the factory itself, and save huge amounts of money on processing the product. But they can't and don't because the manufacture of a solar cell creates a finite amount of energy in the resultant product at a net loss of energy.
The promotion of photovoltaics as a "renewable" energy solution makes the people who preach such rubbish look like fools to those who know the reality of the mechanics of the technology. This undermines the renewable movement itself.

You've got to smile at some of the anti-PV nonsense put out by these self proclaimed experts. Surprised they didn't point out that solar PV only generates during solar time!!!

Mind you, if someone could create a battery the size of a solar panel, that could store, then discharge around 5,000kWh over the next 20 years for ~ £150 ....... I'd have one, or two, or three .....

Mart.