Solar ... In the news

Martyn1981

BIG NEWS:-

EU likely to eliminate MIPs for Chinese solar products

In a meeting in Brussels, the majority of EU member states have decided not to re-apply the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures for crystalline solar PV modules and cells. As such, the undertaking on the minimum import price (MIP) is likely to end on September 3.

Martyn1981

With the help of carbon pricing (burning FF's has real external costs (externalities)), we now see PV is cheaper in Europe.

Solar beats oil and gas price in EU

The Sandbag figures cite lowest bids of €38/MWh from recent wind and solar PV auctions in Germany against a carbon price which, combined with the raw fuel prices gives year-ahead generation costs of €46/MWh for coal generation and €49/MWh for “bridge” fuel gas.

With Germany this year preparing to draw up a timetable for the phase-out of coal, it appears there has never been a better time to invest in renewable energy, rendering the U.K. government’s decision to place its faith in nuclear and fracking for gas even more perplexing.

warrenb

Chinese anti dumping tariff to be abolished from the 3rd September.

Martyn1981

Some speculation and numbers on the impact of the end of the MIP:

MIP impact: EU module prices to decline by 30%, 2019 PV demand up 40%

According to IHS Markit, on the back of the decision to end the MIP in Europe, solar module prices will decline by up to 30%, while total project system costs will be “immediately” driven down. Overall, it forecasts PV demand to grow 40% in 2019.

Just some thoughts (thoughts as I'm not sure I can even guess at the final results), but the reduction on module prices will take some time to feed through(?) since stocks will need to be used up and new cheaper priced panels introduced to the supply system.

Also, these are module price reductions, not install price reductions. Last I read panels represented about 50% of the ground mount large PV install costs, and about 30% of domestic rooftop install costs, so speculating outwards, a possible reduction might be 15% for large PV farms and 9% for domestic PV?

Don't hold me to any of this, I just make it up as I go along.

pile-o-stone

Martyn1981 wrote: »

MIP impact: EU module prices to decline by 30%, 2019 PV demand up 40%

Wow, I didn't realise that the EU put such a high tariff on solar panels. It makes you wonder what other products that we consumers are paying over the odds for, in order to prop up inefficient EU industries?

I did see a report that said finished food goods imported into the EU had a 100% tariff and that Germany makes more money out of Coffee production than Africa does. Wouldn't it be much better to have coffee produced in factories in Africa than in the EU - providing Africans with higher grade jobs in manufacturing than just in agriculture, reducing their dependence on foreign aid and also reducing the carbon footprint in moving all these raw materials around the planet?

michaels

pile-o-stone wrote: »

Wow, I didn't realise that the EU put such a high tariff on solar panels. It makes you wonder what other products that we consumers are paying over the odds for, in order to prop up inefficient EU industries?

I did see a report that said finished food goods imported into the EU had a 100% tariff and that Germany makes more money out of Coffee production than Africa does. Wouldn't it be much better to have coffee produced in factories in Africa than in the EU - providing Africans with higher grade jobs in manufacturing than just in agriculture, reducing their dependence on foreign aid and also reducing the carbon footprint in moving all these raw materials around the planet?

You have said something against the EU. That makes you a racist bigot....

GreatApe

pile-o-stone wrote: »

Wow, I didn't realise that the EU put such a high tariff on solar panels. It makes you wonder what other products that we consumers are paying over the odds for, in order to prop up inefficient EU industries?

Those tariffs are taxes that go to your government it isn't like they dig a big hole throw the money in it and set it on fire.

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

With the help of carbon pricing (burning FF's has real external costs (externalities)), we now see PV is cheaper in Europe.

It is funny how the same websites and people both cry look solar is now cheaper than xyz and then also cry look solar will die when the FIT / other subs are removed.

The truth is solar is not and can not be competitive with existing fossil fuel infrastructure for a very long time for two simple reasons.

1 is that fossil fuel infrastructure can get much more efficient and capital values written down towards zero and thus prices can fall lots yet the industry still continue going. Just as was the case with fracking in the USA or even traditional oil and gas it did not disappear when prices fell below $40 like all the cheerleaders were saying oil under $100 was unviable etc etc.

and 2 the energy infrastructure is so big that PV (& batteries) can not expand fast enough so its price wont go below fossil fuels. How can solar go to say 20% below existing fossil fuels? People and companies would buy them up well before they go that low the only possible way for solar to go notably below existing fossil fuels would be if the ability to build solar factories was extremely rapid and if said builders were willing to write down their solar module factories in 10 years rather than 30-50

None of this means the world shouldn't do solar or wind it probably should but it means be honest and accept that it will require state/consumer support for a long time else you risk a game of chicken with governments and regulators always promoting the idea that solar will be too cheap to meter in just a couple of years and then a couple of years down the line that doesn't come to pass

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Just some thoughts (thoughts as I'm not sure I can even guess at the final results), but the reduction on module prices will take some time to feed through(?) since stocks will need to be used up and new cheaper priced panels introduced to the supply system.

Only if the solar market in the EU is rigged else anyone can just start importing in September directly, the consumer doesn't care about company x who has inventory to shift at older higher prices. If anything the prices should come down within days of the announcement

Martyn1981

Just when you thought PV couldn't get any cheaper!

Research Breakthrough Reduces Cost Of Solar Cell Production By 10%

At this rate, in 5-10yrs time we'll be finding PV panels in the bottom of our cereal boxes. Anyone / everyone old enough to remember their collections?