Bad news for homeowners as house prices will not return to pre-recession peak until e

homelessskilledworker

Rinoa wrote: »

Ever heard of formatting?

No

















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NEO72

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Because individuals may be relatively safe from the potential of house prices drops, depending on their time of life / historical choices made, it does not mean they need to have any particular point of view.

I can completely appreciate that individuals safe from price falls may have a particular point of view; I'm lucky enough to be in that position and for various reasons believe prices falling would benefit me personally and the country as a whole. Based on the data available, I also expect prices to fall further for an extended period (btw being any more specific is pointless, given the current levels of artificial intervention in the market).

What I don't understand is the religious-like fervour with which certain posters who claim to be little affected by prices falling regard HPI. Those buying at peak prices or otherwise reliant on prices not falling, I get (and psychological defence mechanisms are powerful things when it comes to reducing cognitive dissonance). Similarly I get potential buyers who need prices to fall. But there seems to be far too much emotional investment from certain posters who claim that prices falling wouldn't make much of an impact on them. It doesn't quite add up.

the_flying_pig

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I've never bought property on a national average.
The properties I have bought have had no bearing on London Prices, the south east or Northern Ireland.

This is why I monitor the local market and even then monitor the property type and immediate location even closer.

To be honest, I'm not too concerned on what the average is doing, call it selfishness, but I'm more concerned about "round my way"

hmm.

maybe there should be a seperate round ISTL's way thread?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

NEO72 wrote: »

I can completely appreciate that individuals safe from price falls may have a particular point of view; I'm lucky enough to be in that position and for various reasons believe prices falling would benefit me personally and the country as a whole.

I am also in that position and believe prices rising would benefit me personally and the country as a whole.

In fact, I would go so far to say there will be no sustainable economic recovery without significant increases in house prices.

Based on the data available, I also expect prices to fall further for an extended period (btw being any more specific is pointless, given the current levels of artificial intervention in the market).

And yet prices are rising.

Despite a double dip recession, high levels of unemployment, actual real life mortgage interest rates just a percent or two below 2007 levels, endemic mortgage rationing, all the doom and gloom in the media, and with 70% of mortgage lending being withdrawn from the market, house prices are just 10% below peak and now rising year on year.

What I don't understand is the religious-like fervour with which certain posters who claim to be little affected by prices falling regard HPI.

Yes, just as we don't get the deeply disturbed, obsessive, relentless trolling by certain hpc based crashaholics who claim to be homeowners, yet spend half their life on HPC, Estate Agent Today, MSE, Mumsnet, preaching the mantra of house price crash in ever more strident and desperate tones.

While prices rise anyway.;)

psychological defence mechanisms are powerful things when it comes to reducing cognitive dissonance).

Quite.

Like a small minority of posters desperately repeating the false claim that prices are "falling and will continue to fall"....

Despite the fact that prices are stable or rising in the vast majority of the UK.

It doesn't quite add up.

Indeed.

So why are you trolling all these sites preaching the discredited hpc mantra?

BobQ

NEO72 wrote: »

I can completely appreciate that individuals safe from price falls may have a particular point of view; I'm lucky enough to be in that position and for various reasons believe prices falling would benefit me personally and the country as a whole. Based on the data available, I also expect prices to fall further for an extended period (btw being any more specific is pointless, given the current levels of artificial intervention in the market).

What I don't understand is the religious-like fervour with which certain posters who claim to be little affected by prices falling regard HPI. Those buying at peak prices or otherwise reliant on prices not falling, I get (and psychological defence mechanisms are powerful things when it comes to reducing cognitive dissonance). Similarly I get potential buyers who need prices to fall. But there seems to be far too much emotional investment from certain posters who claim that prices falling wouldn't make much of an impact on them. It doesn't quite add up.

I think you must accept that this is an emotional issue. I guess it started with Thatcher's (I concede laudable) aspiration that most people should own their home. This led to a way of life in which house price inflation subsidised many people's lifestyle, be this trading up, doing up and flogging, BTL or equity release to provide holidays or new cars. I recall people who used to obsess about how much their househad increased on a monthly basis. They now obsess about how much it has fallen in the last month. They have inculcated such attitudes in their children who on the one hand want falling prices to buy but on the other hope for rising prices thereafter. It is emotional- largely greed.

Ultimately a house is just a home and it costs what it cost. Its price is irrelevant until you need to sell and even them you have to accept that is what its worth. If you are obsessed about this then really you should have rented. Its always worth remembering that the obsession with buying houses in UK is much greater than in many EU countries.

This is even more the case with BTL where its just an investment that carries risk and you can win or lose.

black_taxi_2

I always factor in 5% interest rates on a repayment mortgage to know if I can afford payments

daily mail guess is as good as mine and I don't have a clue

IveSeenTheLight

the_flying_pig wrote: »

hmm.

maybe there should be a seperate round ISTL's way thread?

Not at all.
Just pointing out that when it boils down to it, the National average will mean diddly squat to ANYBODY's "round their way" data.

Just because the National average is rising, falling or stagnating, it makes very little difference to those looking to be in the market.

They need far better specific local data to consider.

IveSeenTheLight

NEO72 wrote: »

I ...for various reasons believe prices falling would benefit me personally and the country as a whole.

Let's explore this a little more using recent historical data.

When prices fell in 2008 / early 2009, what were the benefits for the country?
Can you provide some data to show the benefits to the economy from the falling house price?

We could also consider the early 90's, when prices were falling then, what was the state of the UK economy?

From my experience, many companies were paying off from employment and even more so in the early 90's were unemployment reached over 3 million, with a lower population IIRC.

How did this benefit the country?

LydiaJ

seven-day-weekend wrote: »

I can't see that it matters that much to the ordinary homeowner (unless they are in negative equity).

If I sell my house and buy another, then I will buy into the same market, so it won't make any difference as the slump will affect the prices of both properties.

More than that, if HP continuing to stagnate is part of a general picture of things not changing much from how they have been for the last few years, then most owners will mainly be happy about interest rates staying low, which makes a lot more difference to their everyday lives than anything that HP might do.

IveSeenTheLight

NEO72 wrote: »

Based on the data available, I also expect prices to fall further for an extended period (btw being any more specific is pointless, given the current levels of artificial intervention in the market).

What data are you referring to and have you considered the factors which drive prices up?

NEO72 wrote: »

Those buying at peak prices or otherwise reliant on prices not falling, I get (and psychological defence mechanisms are powerful things when it comes to reducing cognitive dissonance). Similarly I get potential buyers who need prices to fall. But there seems to be far too much emotional investment from certain posters who claim that prices falling wouldn't make much of an impact on them. It doesn't quite add up.

I bought in 2000, 2004, 2007, 2011, I sold one this year and am building in 2013.
Did I buy at peak?, yes, I did, but the peak has been exceeded since.
Could the market have / will drop, I believe it could be possible, however I am seeing the market strenght continuing to increase demand for both properties to buy and rent.
I'm seeing sellers reluctant to drop prices, in the belief that their property is worth more to them.

Human sentiment is a strong factor in property prices in my opinion and it is my opinion that unless the desire to be homeowners reverses and we return to a period where the desire to own is replaced by an acceptance of renting from either the state or privately, then there will always be a drive, passion and emotion surrounding property,

This amongst many other things is why I think property will definately nominally increase.

I've called stagnation the last couple of years, in fact I've been overly pessimistic with my predictions in 2011 and 2012.

I'm thinking 2013 will show low growth in the property market (maybe between 1-5% and potentially this will improve confidence to carry this through to 2014.