Any other home buyers in NI?

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

Ah but then there would be a risk of a drop in the market, so best not to buy at that 20% increase point, in case it drops back.

Well, yeah, I agree completely. As we've seen, a 20% rise is mad. Are you for instance happy to gamble that London is not about to go pop? I can't see NI's economy justifying such a rise.

maggiecon

someadvicereq wrote: »

I got caught out with the housing bubble, and as such my house is worth about half of what I 'paid' for it.

But I'm still looking to buy a family home (currently in small semi). I'm willing to take the negative equity hit nd use savings to get out and move into something bigger.

The way I see it, I have an opportunity now to buy a house that I could only dream of 7 years ago. Ok my house may have dropped 50k, but the house I would be buying now has dropped significantly more.


Cheers!

would you consider renting your current home for a couple of years. How much in negative equity is it.

I ask because I was in a similar situation, I bought a 3 bed semi 10 miles from the nearest town for £125k in 2006 (I couldnt afford a house in town in 2006) my mortgage is now £108k.

Las year I then bought a large 4 bed detached house on a huge plot in center of town for £124k.

I rented the semi out and lengthed the term of the mortgage so that the rent nearly covers the mortgage. prices are currently on the way up and my mortgage is still coming down. I hope to sell the property in a year or two and break even. But I still have my nice house which I would never have been able to afford in 2006. In fact when I bough it was repossed from a property developer who paid just under £300k for it in 2007.

My mortgage advisor told me about a scheme called let to buy, which allows you to let your property to enable you to buy another. you would probably have to do the maths for your current situation to see if it works for you, but a bigger deposit on your new purchase will mean reduce interest rate on your mortgage.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

I can't see NI's economy justifying such a rise.

By the time you do, it'll be too late.

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

By the time you do, it'll be too late.

Well, I'll put my hat in a drawer here. Call me next year and I will email you a picture of me eating it if we're enjoying a Tiger style economic boom.

Red Hand Tiger - you heard it here first.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Well, I'll put my hat in a drawer here. Call me next year and I will email you a picture of me eating it if we're enjoying a Tiger style economic boom.

Do you really think we need a "tiger style economic boom" for prices to rise? NO.... we just need to avoid further deterioration.

Lets face it, my more recent arguments are opinions based on the sound set of figures that I presented in my earlier posts.

You can't argue against the figures so you try to suggest that we need a "tiger style boom" for prices to rise - which is absolutely beyond ludicrous.

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

Do you really think we need a "tiger style economic boom" for prices to rise? NO.... we just need to avoid further deterioration.

Lets face it, my more recent arguments are opinions based on the sound set of figures that I presented in my earlier posts.

You can't argue against the figures so you try to suggest that we need a "tiger style boom" for prices to rise - which is absolutely beyond ludicrous.

You said 20%. Now, give me a rough guesstimate of when we'll see that, because prior to the 00 years that was a lot.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

You said 20%. Now, give me a rough guesstimate of when we'll see that.

A rough guesstimate of when we'll see that, including the 4.8% we've already seen, would be Q4 2015 or Q1 2016.

This is based on my opinion that we've "overshot the runway" on the way down (as usually happens with most bubbles) together with an expectation of some minor improvements in the economy.

This would see the NI Residential Property Price Index at a level of 108, from the low of 90.

Of course, we could argue back and forth about that prediction all day, as most economists would, but the fact remains - it's cheaper to buy than rent in most locations in Northern Ireland today.

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

A rough guesstimate of when we'll see that, including the 4.8% we've already seen, would be Q4 2015 or Q1 2016.

This is based on my opinion that we've "overshot the runway" on the way down (as usually happens with most bubbles) together with an expectation of some minor improvements in the economy.

This would see the NI Residential Property Price Index at a level of 108, from the low of 90.

Of course, we could argue back and forth about that prediction all day, as most economists would, but the fact remains - it's cheaper to buy than rent in most locations in Northern Ireland today.

All right. Hat in the drawer. Get back to me.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Well, yeah, I agree completely. As we've seen, a 20% rise is mad. Are you for instance happy to gamble that London is not about to go pop? I can't see NI's economy justifying such a rise.

Even a modest 3.75% increase year on year - which is quite feasible, will have yielded an overall increase of more than 20% in five years - thats our point.

Take the couple of examples i talked about

• 3 bed town house at £40K. Do you not think the market could support that at £48K in five years time?
  
• 3 bed semi at £51K. Do you not think the market could support that at £60K in five years time?

Doesnt seem that unreasonable, does it?

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

Even a modest 3.75% increase year on year - which is quite feasible, will have yielded an overall increase of more than 20% in five years - thats our point.

Take the couple of examples i talked about

• 3 bed town house at £40K. Do you not think the market could support that at £48K in five years time?
  
• 3 bed semi at £51K. Do you not think the market could support that at £60K in five years time?

Doesnt seem that unreasonable, does it?

No. Five years is a long time, and I would expect to have bought a long time before that, purely 'cause I want to. A bit like your McLaren.

On the other hand, who knows what inflation etc will be like over that time. 3.75% seems a reasonable guess but who knows? As I say, we may have reached some form of stabilisation now. Or we may have had another crash by then.