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Rightmove December - +1.4% YoY, -3.3% mom
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
- New seller asking prices up by 1.4% in 2012
- Rightmove predicts the slow recovery will continue through 2013:
- Rightmove forecasts a national 2% rise in 2013 assisted by greater competition among lenders to lend.
- New seller shortage will continue to underpin prices, with no significant increase to the circa 1.2 million new listings seen in each of the last three years
- Signs of slight improvement in the market, with average gap between final asking price and sold price narrowing to 3.7% in 2012 compared to 4.9% in 2011
Miles Shipside, Director and housing market analyst at Rightmove comments: “December is the most likely month for sellers coming to market to get very real about the price they ask for their home. This year they’ve gone a bit further than ever before, though in truth it is symptomatic of the ‘all or nothing’ pattern of 2012.
This summer also saw big falls with the distractions of the Jubilee and the Olympics, though prices did rebound in October. It seems that sellers who come to market at times when they know that buyers’ attention is focused on other events realise that their prices have to be extra keen in order to compete.
Many who put their property up for sale this close to the festive season will have a very good and pressing reason to sell, so Christmas will have come early for those buyers who have been able to bag a bargain.
Demand
Pent-up demand remains high, fuelled by frustrated home-movers whose moving ambitions have been on hold since the start of the credit-crunch in the autumn of 2007. Some of this group will find ways and means to make their move happen in 2013. Some estate agents report that October and November were among their best sales months for five years.
Evidence of a recovering market this year can be seen in the narrowing of the average gap between final asking price and sold price. This has shrunk to 3.7% in 2012, compared to 4.9% for each of the three years between 2009 and 2011. The latest national house price data from the Office for National Statistics reports September’s average price agreed for mortgage financed transactions was £233,000.
Rightmove’s average new seller asking price in July was £242,097 and, assuming a three month time lag for deals to be agreed and mortgages to be approved, there is a very strong correlation.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/12/december-2012.pdf
- Rightmove predicts the slow recovery will continue through 2013:
- Rightmove forecasts a national 2% rise in 2013 assisted by greater competition among lenders to lend.
- New seller shortage will continue to underpin prices, with no significant increase to the circa 1.2 million new listings seen in each of the last three years
- Signs of slight improvement in the market, with average gap between final asking price and sold price narrowing to 3.7% in 2012 compared to 4.9% in 2011
Miles Shipside, Director and housing market analyst at Rightmove comments: “December is the most likely month for sellers coming to market to get very real about the price they ask for their home. This year they’ve gone a bit further than ever before, though in truth it is symptomatic of the ‘all or nothing’ pattern of 2012.
This summer also saw big falls with the distractions of the Jubilee and the Olympics, though prices did rebound in October. It seems that sellers who come to market at times when they know that buyers’ attention is focused on other events realise that their prices have to be extra keen in order to compete.
Many who put their property up for sale this close to the festive season will have a very good and pressing reason to sell, so Christmas will have come early for those buyers who have been able to bag a bargain.
Demand
Pent-up demand remains high, fuelled by frustrated home-movers whose moving ambitions have been on hold since the start of the credit-crunch in the autumn of 2007. Some of this group will find ways and means to make their move happen in 2013. Some estate agents report that October and November were among their best sales months for five years.
Evidence of a recovering market this year can be seen in the narrowing of the average gap between final asking price and sold price. This has shrunk to 3.7% in 2012, compared to 4.9% for each of the three years between 2009 and 2011. The latest national house price data from the Office for National Statistics reports September’s average price agreed for mortgage financed transactions was £233,000.
Rightmove’s average new seller asking price in July was £242,097 and, assuming a three month time lag for deals to be agreed and mortgages to be approved, there is a very strong correlation.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/12/december-2012.pdf
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
0
Comments
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Some moron on HPC....' Could this really be our time?'.....hahahahahaWe love Sarah O Grady0
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H - i assume no particular reason for breaking with convention & stating the YoY before the MoM?
nah, i mean, it's the RM index - it's meaningless. though the figures aren't quite as bad as Mr Shipside's commentary.FACT.0 -
the_flying_pig wrote: »i assume no particular reason for breaking with convention & stating the YoY before the MoM?
Get over it already with your conventions. :rotfl:0 -
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Evidence of a recovering market this year can be seen in the narrowing of the average gap between final asking price and sold price. This has shrunk to 3.7% in 2012, compared to 4.9% for each of the three years between 2009 and 2011. The latest national house price data from the Office for National Statistics reports September’s average price agreed for mortgage financed transactions was £233,000.
I think we're comparing apples with oranges, or possibly to be fairer, eating apples with cooking apples.
Mortgage financed transactions and all transactions might be reasonable substitutes in normal times but not at the tail end of a credit crunch.0 -
Not that you can give Rightmove data much credence, like so many do on this site. But Rightmove has now gone into a clearer than clear 100% bonafide downward trend for those that are genuinely interested in facts.
For those looking for what they want to see I will let you get on with it:)
In the last 6 months Rightmove is now down close on 8%, with five of the six months showing falls.0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »Not that you can give Rightmove data much credence, like so many do on this site. But Rightmove has now gone into a clearer than clear 100% bonafide downward trend for those that are genuinely interested in facts.
For those looking for what they want to see I will let you get on with it:)
In the last 6 months Rightmove is now down close on 8%, with five of the six months showing falls.
Almost every year Rightmove shows a 'Spring bounce' of prices rising Jan - June and then a winter lull of prices falling (or rising more slowly) Jul - Dec.
Many indices show the same or similar pattern.0 -
Little bit up little bit down - pretty even over the long term - homeowners paying morgage renters paying rent
Yeah baby yeah baby yeah0 -
I think we're comparing apples with oranges, or possibly to be fairer, eating apples with cooking apples.
Mortgage financed transactions and all transactions might be reasonable substitutes in normal times but not at the tail end of a credit crunch.
Eating apples with cooking apples is probably about right.
I think Miles has limited options in terms of comparables with what he is trying to point out there....
There are only two other indices which, like Rightmove, use a mean average price and so therefore will at least be in the right ballpark with headline prices.
It's either Acadametrics (and I can't see why he'd want to reference a commercial competitor) or ONS, which only uses mortgage data.
The result from either will be a far better comparison than from LR (which excludes all newbuilds) or Haliwide (which don't provide an "average" house price at all).“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »Not that you can give Rightmove data much credence, like so many do on this site. But Rightmove has now gone into a clearer than clear 100% bonafide downward trend for those that are genuinely interested in facts.
For those looking for what they want to see I will let you get on with it:)
In the last 6 months Rightmove is now down close on 8%, with five of the six months showing falls.
Translation: Not much credence is to be given to Rightmove figures, unless we can spot a downward trend. :rotfl:0
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