Scottish independence impact on LGPS

rpc

bilbo51 wrote: »

I'm quite ambivalent about this referendum business, but may I point out that the nation that has the right of self-determination here is the UK... :grouphug:

No but Scotland is a nation

No but Scotland is not a state

No but Scotland has a right to self-governance

No but... confused...

Under international law, Scotland has no right to self-determination but the SNP are claiming their mandate stems from a higher authority.

grey_gym_sock

scotland is a nation, but not a state.

that nations have the right to self-determination is a generally accepted principle, not entirely a matter of international law.

there can be arguments over what counts as a nation. but there really isn't in this case. the UK is understood to be a state containing several nations.

it does seem clear that scotland won't vote for independence, however.

andyfr_2

The polls aren't always correct though. Now that over 16s can vote in the referendum it could be less clear as the younger Scots, apparently, are more in favour of independence.

finebone

Goldiegirl wrote: »

The break up of the UK affects all of us in the country.

If there is any referendum, I think everybody in the UK should vote on it, not just one part

I understand where you are coming from but I do not agree with your conclusion.

In 1707, the Scottish Parliament and the English Parliament united to form the Parliament of Great Britain, based in the home of the English Parliament.

Since the two nations chose (freely) to unite their parliaments, imho they both ought to have the right to leave that union at any time. And whatever the legal position, it would be politically untenable for one nation in the union to deny another the right to leave despite the clearly expressed view of the majority of people in that nation that they wanted to leave.

Having said that, although I am all for more autonomy for Scotland (and other nations and regions of the UK if they wish it), I am against indepedence mainly because I think it is a dangerous illusion in the modern world.

A lively debate has developed recently about the position of an independent Scotland in the EU. This, like many other questions, is uncertain but will be determined by detailed negotiations if/when there is a YES vote in the Referendum.

For what it's worth, I think that Scotland would continue to be part of the EU but retain the pound sterling. Interestingly, there has been next to no debate about the position of the remainder of the UK in the EU. After all, technically, it would be a new country too! And consider this: if England and Wales chose to leave the UK, instead of Scotland, would it be expected to apply to join the EU while Scotland and Northern Ireland remained in the EU!?

andyfr_2

finebone wrote: »

Interestingly, there has been next to no debate about the position of the remainder of the UK in the EU. After all, technically, it would be a new country too! And consider this: if England and Wales chose to leave the UK, instead of Scotland, would it be expected to apply to join the EU while Scotland and Northern Ireland remained in the EU!?

Not according to Barroso:

"For European Union purposes, from a legal point of view, it is certainly a new state. If a country becomes independent it is a new state and has to negotiate with the EU."

Mr Barroso also said that, if Scotland became independent, the rest of the UK would not have to negotiate a new position, because of the "principle of the continuity of the state".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20664907

finebone

andyfr wrote: »

Not according to Barroso:

"For European Union purposes, from a legal point of view, it is certainly a new state. If a country becomes independent it is a new state and has to negotiate with the EU."

Mr Barroso also said that, if Scotland became independent, the rest of the UK would not have to negotiate a new position, because of the "principle of the continuity of the state".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20664907

I know Barroso stated this recently, but as I said there has been next to no DEBATE on the position of the remainder of the UK. It will be interesting to hear if there is any legal basis, EU or otherwise, for the second part of his statement!

As far as the first part of his statement is concerned, this too is debatable. As the Scottish Deputy Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said in response:

"We do not agree that an independent Scotland will be in the position of having to reapply for European Union membership, because there is no provision for removing EU treaties from any part of EU territory, or for removing European citizenship from the people of a country which has been in the EU for 40 years."

"We have always said that the specific terms of Scotland's continued EU membership as an independent nation will be negotiated - but the crucial point is that these negotiations will take place from within the EU, because in the period immediately following a 'Yes' vote in the referendum, Scotland will still be part of the UK and the EU."

I am not an SNP supporter. In fact, I would like the UK (and indeed the EU) to be a confederation. However, I think that as she suggests, everything is negotiable!

However, clearly I have strayed far too far away from the subject.
To answer the original question, I think it is very unlikely that Scotland will have adopted the Euro by 2017. If it did at any point, I think Mulronie's view of what would happen to the LGPS is probably correct.

However, as Mulronie also said, "There are a lot of unanswered questions about how the long-term liabilities made in the name of the United Kingdom would be carved up during the dissolution of union."

As always, the devil will be in the detail. The problem is that Scots are not being asked to vote on the final details, just the general principle. Oops, there I go straying off the subject again!

PuzzledDave

My own situation makes me very nervous about Scottish independence. I live in England and my pension is with Scottish Life. If Scotland goes independent will I have enough time between announcement and conversion to Euro to get my money out ? If many others in a similar position to me (and large investors) also look to get their money back into the remains of the UK might the new Scottish government drop in controls to prevent such flight ?

Sure the risks of such must be very small.... but it's my pension built up over serious sacrifice during my working life and I'm dam nervous as to what could happen to it.

Despite Scottish Life having provided (what I feel at least compared to my previous Standard Life pension) amazing returns since I moved to them 2 years ago and so I am a very, very satisfied customer.... I am fairly sure I'll want to get my money out of Scotland before the referendum if it looks like having any chance of a yes vote.

rpc

Scottish Life is part of Royal London, so I imagine they would just shuffle the business between offices.

System

It might depend on what tax rates Scotland decides to set.
If they under-cut the UK rate of corporation tax then everyone - Starbucks, Google, Amazon, etc - will be wanting to re-route their profits through Scotland.
Or they might decide to become a tax haven, with zero rates of tax.

Or they might even become a high-tax socialist dead-end and have to impose currency restrictions and tight border controls to prevent smuggling and emigration. Somebody will have to pick up the North Korean mantle when that country re-unites.

System

This all very good but I highly doubt Scotland will become the next Luxembourg or North Korea. Anyway, I would not worry too much about pension funds in euro if Scotland votes to dissolve Great Britian.

Besides the fact that Scotland is highly likely to keep a modified variety of the current Sterling arrangements, even if it did chose to adopt the euro what makes you think that this would automatically change the currency of a private pension already setup to someone outwith Scotland?

Clifford_Pope wrote: »

It might depend on what tax rates Scotland decides to set.
If they under-cut the UK rate of corporation tax then everyone - Starbucks, Google, Amazon, etc - will be wanting to re-route their profits through Scotland.
Or they might decide to become a tax haven, with zero rates of tax.

Or they might even become a high-tax socialist dead-end and have to impose currency restrictions and tight border controls to prevent smuggling and emigration. Somebody will have to pick up the North Korean mantle when that country re-unites.