Evening Standard.. house prices could fall 50%

IveSeenTheLight

Rinoa wrote: »

Blatantly misleading thread title.

It's not the Evening Standard saying house prices will fall 50%, it's some bozo we've never heard of.

Just HSW's daily routine of grasping at straws.

He's not even saying they could fall by 50%.

the article states

House prices are not stable. They have a cycle like everything else. America has understood this much earlier than the UK. There, house prices have already fallen by 50 per cent and they are affordable

He's talking about America dropped 50%.
there is no direct link between the America housing market and the UK housing market.

Shoddy OP title in my opinion and surprised nobody corrected the fault.

IveSeenTheLight

Tommygun2000 wrote: »

How can you say I agree but not true in the same post?

I do not agree. I think there is a difference between price and value. The price is what the seller decides to put on it. The value can be worked out any number of ways but has very little to do with the price.

Sorry, I can't agree.
The price is what the seller and buyer mutually agree at the point of sale.
At that point of time it is the valuation of the property between the two parties.

I know a property that was bought in September 2003 for £145,500.
A guy knocked on their door in July the following year (10 months later) and offered £235,000. (61% HPI in 10 months)

To you and me and probably the wider market for that property, the buyer paid too much, but that is what he valued it as.

Incidently, it was 26 Cairntack Road, Belhelvie AB23 8RD for anyone doubting the detail.
Also incidently it was then sold in 2010 for £305,000

IveSeenTheLight

Tommygun2000 wrote: »

Well you must have been sleeping. In 2007 average UK house price was over 200K, now its fallen to in the 150's and still falling. This is the nominal 'price' if you take into account real inflation i.e the value it has fallen its around 30% and will be around 50% real term crash in a couple of years if things continue the way they are heading.

I wish people would get their facts correct.

According to the Land Registry.
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/house-prices-and-sales/search-the-index

1. Prices peaked at £182,301 in November 2007 (as opposed to your over £200k)
2. They are currently £162,561 (a drop of 10.8% from peak). Ok, this is nominal and not REAL, but then people buy nominally
3. The latest release shows that the YOY figure is positive

IveSeenTheLight

Tommygun2000 wrote: »

No what I said was average property has fallen around 30% in real terms, and IF THINGS CONTINUE the way they are going then property will continue falling. This is a fact not opinion.

As shown above, currently properties are 10.8% below peak.

the bottom was April 2009 where the nominal price was £151,377 on average.

Since the bottom, prices are up 7.4%

YOY there is a small increase, albeit in reality we are seeing nominal stagnation.

In fact, we have seen a nominal increase and probably REAL terms stagnation in the last 3 years

Fella

The author married Rupert Murdoch's daughter. I wouldn't trust his judgement.

armour

Tommygun, howabout giving your thanks to ISTL for his/her excellent post correcting your figures?

crash123

could someone put the land registry twitter thing up. I read on another site yesterday that it was a minus. If it had been a positive I am sure Hamish would have started a thread about it.

wotsthat

crash123 wrote: »

could someone put the land registry twitter thing up. I read on another site yesterday that it was a minus. If it had been a positive I am sure Hamish would have started a thread about it.

Land Reg October -0.3%

Zzzzzz

Zero_Sum

moneyinmypocket wrote: »

House prices won't drop - just because person A doesn't want to pay doesn't mean person B won't!

Those who are priced out should cancel sky and beer money

They already have dropped

DervProf

Tommygun2000 wrote: »

I say gold is a worthless lump of metal. I mean what good is it?

For a start, I see a fair bit of it used to plate the edge connectors of computer memory, CPU pins and sockets.

Switch and relay contacts are often gold plated too.

I believe gold is used to make tiny connections within transistors and integrated circuits.

You say that it is worthless, and no good. The electronics industry seems to have other ideas.