RPI published today?

chirpchirp

Is today the day the RPI for September is published?

If so, what do you think it will be? Was September a particularly high rising month? I don't seem able to think back that far but I seem to remember petrol rising.

mystic_trev

chirpchirp wrote: »

Is today the day the RPI for September is published?

If so, what do you think it will be? Was September a particularly high rising month? I don't seem able to think back that far but I seem to remember petrol rising.

UK consumer price inflation fell to 2.2% in September, down from 2.5% the month before

Old_Slaphead

And RPI 2.6%

StevieJ

I assume this drop will be cancelled later in the year as the new utility increases kick in ?

by far the largest downward pressure to the change in the RPI came as a result of September 2011’s utility bill rises falling out of the index calculation.

michaels

mystic_trev wrote: »

UK consumer price inflation fell to 2.2% in September, down from 2.5% the month before

Bad news for the boe policy of inflating away the debt overhang

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

I assume this drop will be cancelled later in the year as the new utility increases kick in ?

Electricity, gas, solid fuel and 'liquid fuels' (presumably heating oil and calor gas) account for 0.56% of the CPI. Even if price rise by 20% that's only 0.1 percentage points added to CPI (RPI will be close enough to the same not to matter).

I reckon there's a good chance that the RPI will be negative again before too long (next Spring?). Food prices look set to rise but consumer goods prices will almost certainly fall as Asian domestic demand, especially Chinese, is falling fast which will likely mean more factories trying to offload cheap goods around Christmas.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Bad news for the boe policy of inflating away the debt overhang

That only works if nominal GDP rises quickly. Inflation creates distortions to price signals and so reduces real GDP increases.

A problem we face at the moment is that output won't increase whatever is tried (and lets face it, the Keynsian kitchen sink has been thrown at Western economies in the last 4 years). As a letter writer to the NY Times put it in the 1930s about the then QE that was tried, "Increasing the amount of paint in the barrel doesn't help make more things to paint!".

coastline

Generali wrote: »

Electricity, gas, solid fuel and 'liquid fuels' (presumably heating oil and calor gas) account for 0.56% of the CPI. Even if price rise by 20% that's only 0.1 percentage points added to CPI (RPI will be close enough to the same not to matter).

I reckon there's a good chance that the RPI will be negative again before too long (next Spring?). Food prices look set to rise but consumer goods prices will almost certainly fall as Asian domestic demand, especially Chinese, is falling fast which will likely mean more factories trying to offload cheap goods around Christmas.

Just looked at a salary calculator...£25,000 a year...take home £1,600 per month roughly...
Fuel rise from £100 to £120 per month...would leave someone with an increase of 1.5% in cost..
Someone on £15,000 would take home around £1,000 a month...2% increase a month..
Unless I've got this wrong ??

pqrdef

Generali wrote: »

Electricity, gas, solid fuel and 'liquid fuels' (presumably heating oil and calor gas) account for 0.56% of the CPI.

So what's gone wrong there then? They account for a lot more than 0.56% of anybody's cost of living. More than 10% in this house.

coastline

pqrdef wrote: »

So what's gone wrong there then? They account for a lot more than 0.56% of anybody's cost of living. More than 10% in this house.

Probably nothing...the official calculation doesn't fit in with the general publics way of seeing things...
People see basic daily cost going up...even the BoE admit this...the basket of items used for the calculation needs to be questioned...that I doubt will happen..

Generali

pqrdef wrote: »

So what's gone wrong there then? They account for a lot more than 0.56% of anybody's cost of living. More than 10% in this house.

Bollox. It's 5.6%, I misplaced a decimal place.

FACEPALM.