Germany to leave Euro

Loughton_Monkey

Well at least that's what 'Boy George' Soros recommends.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/19537693

International financier George Soros has called for Germany to "lead or leave the euro" days before a crucial ruling on the eurozone's bailout fund by Germany's constitutional court.
Mr Soros argued that the eurozone should target 5% economic growth.

That would require the bloc to abandon German-backed austerity measures and accept higher inflation, he says.
He also backed a new European Fiscal Authority financed by VAT receipts to oversee eurozone government finances.

In an article published in Monday's New York Review of Books, Mr Soros said that Germany should become a more "benevolent" leading country or exit the single currency: "Either alternative would be better than to persist on the current course."

This is quoted by BBC as (sic)

Mr Soros is to outline his ideas in a specch on Monday in Germany

. Just a typical symptom of BBC's gutter-level standards these days.

In fact it probably makes sense. Everyone drones on about Greece leaving, or being forced to leave. This would inevitably result in Portugal being the next country 'invited' to leave. And then Italy. Spain.....

Quite a novel and intelligent solution, therefore, if Germany leaves on its own. They are about the only country in Europe that is solvent and viable, and has any sort of future. Leave now, while the going's good. This would then leave Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, and all the other "Euroflop" countries to fight it out amongst themselves.

Obviously this would result in having to print more € than have ever been printed up to now, and an exchange rate of, say, €15 to the £, but what the hell? Serves them right for joining the Euro!

Brilliant idea.

Large Schnapps and Bratwursts all round.......

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Quite a novel and intelligent solution, therefore, if Germany leaves on its own. They are about the only country in Europe that is solvent and viable, and has any sort of future.

The irony of course, is that Germany would be financially doomed if it left the Euro.

Germany is only "solvent and viable" as long as it can benefit from an artificially weak currency.

ILW

A fair chunk of the German electorate would welcome a return to the DM. The next elections could be interesting

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ILW wrote: »

A fair chunk of the German electorate would welcome a return to the DM.

See sig.....

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The irony of course, is that Germany would be financially doomed if it left the Euro.

Germany is only "solvent and viable" as long as it can benefit from an artificially weak currency.

Germany is viable without the Euro, to say it isn't is complete nonsense.

The solvency issue may well be true. But what I think you are trying to state is they wouldn't be quite as well off as they are now. Which is something different.

The thing for the German people, if you listen to them, (at least what's written in articles) is that they face two choices. Be worse off under their own currency, or be far FAR worse off later down the line, propping up half of the Euro.

Merkel has lost a LOT of confidence, solely as she wants to commit German taxpayers to lifelong and generational debt to prop up other countries. We'll see how it plays out next year. We;ve seen how it played out in France, and for all the scare stories about how france would now be begging to everyone else....well, it certainly isn't the case....yet, and none of the horror stories have played out either.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Germany is viable without the Euro, to say it isn't is complete nonsense.

The solvency issue may well be true. But what I think you are trying to state is they wouldn't be quite as well off as they are now. Which is something different.

Not according to the German Finance Ministry.

According to their [the German Finance Ministry's] scenarios, in the first year alone following a euro collapse, the German economy would shrink by up to 10 percent and the ranks of the unemployed would swell to more than 5 million people.

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/vorab/zusammenbruch-des-euro-katastrophale-folgen-fuer-deutsche-wirtschaft-a-840554.html

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The thing for the German people, if you listen to them, (at least what's written in articles) is that they face two choices. Be worse off under their own currency, or be far FAR worse off later down the line, propping up half of the Euro.

You should probably mention that to them Graham, as the German government seems to think the exact opposite.

The officials were so horrified by their conclusions that they kept all of their analyses confidential, for fear that the costs of rescuing the euro could spin out of control. “Compared to such scenarios, a rescue, no matter how expensive it is, seems to be the lesser evil,” says one Finance Ministry official.

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/vorab/zusammenbruch-des-euro-katastrophale-folgen-fuer-deutsche-wirtschaft-a-840554.html

To put that into perspective, our recent recession was the deepest in UK history, and we only lost 6% of GDP.

For Germany to lose 10% in just the first year alone, plus more in additional years, is little short of catastrophic.

purch

On 5th June Soros told Germany that they had only 3 months to save the EUR and avoid the disintegration of the European Union.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/soros-warns-of-threemonth-window-to-save-the-single-currency-7815164.html

Sounds like he is getting desperate :eek:

Soros has always been a firm believer in a Federal Europe.

Graham_Devon

That article doesn't disprove what I stated, just looks at one side of it.

BTW, there were a load of warnings for Iceland too. They never played out.

We know your thoughts Hamish. You want the Euro to survive regardless of the poverty and pain this inflicts on it's inhabitants along the way, regardless of the economic price. Afterall, you know how painful a breakup could be to us, and that's all there is to it.

purch

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Germany is only "solvent and viable" as long as it can benefit from an artificially weak currency.

Which "artificially weak currency" would that be ?

The EUR is still significantly stronger today than it has been for most of it's existence.

Loughton_Monkey

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not according to the German Finance Ministry.

According to their [the German Finance Ministry's] scenarios, in the first year alone following a euro collapse, the German economy would shrink by up to 10 percent and the ranks of the unemployed would swell to more than 5 million people. .....

... but surely all you're doing is arguing that the huge cost to Germany of propping up the Euro is slightly smaller than the cost of a 10% shrinkage in their economy.

Their "New Dm" would not crash. They would no longer have to bail out the 'gravy train countires'. Germany would say 'I'm alright Hans'. It's all the other countries and their dregs of a currency that would be worth coppers.

Then Germany and UK can continue to trade, leaving all the 'tin pot' European countries to make what they will of the € and descend inevitably to 'come out' as the third world economies they already are.

wotsthat

I'm sure Soros will have offered this advice with the best of intentions.

He won't have a financial interest either way I'm sure.

What a nice guy.