Hometrack - House prices likely to come under further pressure

Graham_Devon

Hometrack index shows -0.1% for august.

Bizzare index this one, but shows that London has beocme stagnant this month, showing 0% for august, the first time for a year that prices have not risen.

However, transactions have risen 6.5%, Hometrack suggests this could be a backlog of transactions after it rained and due to the olympics. :undecided

Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack, said: "The balance between housing demand and supply is widening, suggesting further downward pressure on prices. Demand is up by 10% over the year to date while supply has grown by 19%."

He said that some of the slowest markets have over recent years been in the northern regions of the country, where house prices have been dropped as a result.

But weaker demand is now putting increasing pressure on southern England and the percentage of the asking price being achieved is softening, he said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gG20HiHqRMbCxtozAjT_bPCQQBDw?docId=N0196551345947626024A

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Also worth noting, Hometrack is the only index which releases the percentage of asking price being achieved.

Across England and Wales, the proportion of the asking price achieved stands at 93%

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Also worth noting, Hometrack is the only index which releases the percentage of asking price being achieved.

That's interesting. My friend, who has had her house on the market for about three months, has already dropped the asking price by about 7%. If she manages to sell, it might go for ~ 15% less than the initial asking price. Although, I doubt she'd accept such a low offer.

Estate agents, eh ?

chewmylegoff

DervProf wrote: »

That's interesting. My friend, who has had her house on the market for about three months, has already dropped the asking price by about 7%. If she manages to sell, it might go for ~ 15% less than the initial asking price. Although, I doubt she'd accept such a low offer.

Estate agents, eh ?

I reckon the index is probably a more reliable indicator than your anecdote (no matter how many different threads you repeat it on).

Loughton_Monkey

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Also worth noting, Hometrack is the only index which releases the percentage of asking price being achieved.

I wonder how this would be measured.

Typically, you'd put it on the market, first, at £299,950. It doesn't sell, so after 8 weeks, you drop to £285,000. Punter comes along and offers £275,000. How much has it dropped? £10K or £24,950?

chewmylegoff

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

I wonder how this would be measured.

Typically, you'd put it on the market, first, at £299,950. It doesn't sell, so after 8 weeks, you drop to £285,000. Punter comes along and offers £275,000. How much has it dropped? £10K or £24,950?

Hometrack appear to compile their results by sending a questionnaire to estate agents, but they don't seem to publish the question so it is difficult to know.

Having just found out that is their basis of calculation, I now prefer dervprof's tired anecdote.

Graham_Devon

Surely it's the selling price of the asking price at the time.

So if a house starts at 250k, gets reduced by 40k, and gets an offer of 205k, the percentage of the asking price achieved would be 97%, rather than the 82% of initial asking price?

Loughton_Monkey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Surely it's the selling price of the asking price at the time.

So if a house starts at 250k, gets reduced by 40k, and gets an offer of 205k, the percentage of the asking price achieved would be 97%, rather than the 82% of initial asking price?

Don't know.

But I'm with chewmyarseoff. If the data comes from Estate Agents, then it must be meaningless drivel.

DervProf

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I reckon the index is probably a more reliable indicator than your anecdote (no matter how many different threads you repeat it on).

Well, don't take my word for it then, ye of little faith.

If I were reporting something that was remotely hard to believe, then I could understand a certain amount of scepticism. I suppose I can understand those of a bullish persuasion not wanting to believe my anecdote.

Like I`ve said before, if and when the place sells, I'll report the sale price, whatever it might be.

chewmylegoff

DervProf wrote: »

Well, don't take my word for it then, ye of little faith.

If I were reporting something that was remotely hard to believe, then I could understand a certain amount of scepticism. I suppose I can understand those of a bullish persuasion not wanting to believe my anecdote.

Like I`ve said before, if and when the place sells, I'll report the sale price, whatever it might be.

as you will see, i have adjusted my view and now believe your anecdote to be more reliable than hometrack. my apologies.

DervProf

chewmylegoff wrote: »

as you will see, i have adjusted my view and now believe your anecdote to be more reliable than hometrack. my apologies.

It isn't every day that one of my friend's puts a property on the market, let alone a property in the £400 - £500k bracket. It's a decent place in a decent area, and I'm interested to see how the sale goes (if it goes).

FWIW, I had a feeling that it would probably sell fairly easily if marketed ~ £430k, and would be a decent buy for slightly less than that figure. It is now on the market for £440k, so it'll be interesting to see if it gains more viewings.