Sudden jump by economists

lemonjelly

Remember about 2 years ago when a load of economists wrote to national newspapers mutually endorsing Osborne's policies?

Seems they've all changed their minds & now no longer support his policies...

Two and a half years later, the UK is mired in a double-dip recession and Osborne is set to borrow £11.8bn more than Labour planned.

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/exclusive-osbornes-supporters-turn-him

Now, all those who were using this as evidence that austerity was the way forward, based on the information of these eminent professors etc, do they now believe Osborne should change his strategy?

Thrugelmir

Two and a half years later, the UK is mired in a double-dip recession and Osborne is set to borrow £11.8bn more than Labour planned.

We're still waiting for Labour's detailed budget plans..........;)

Masomnia

Of the responses only one or two of them seemed to say 'Nope we shouldn't be cutting after all.'

A lot of them criticize the balance of where the axe is falling and I do think there's something in that.

All this 'Balls was right after all' is rubbish, though. He has no ideas, nothing to contribute save a 'Tax the bankers' whine now and again as if it's the answer to all our problems, or announcing that tinkering with the VAT rate is going to somehow lead to a boom in consumer spending.

abaxas

Economics is not a science, it is an arts subject :P

JasonLVC

lemonjelly wrote: »

Remember about 2 years ago when a load of economists wrote to national newspapers mutually endorsing Osborne's policies?

Seems they've all changed their minds & now no longer support his policies...



http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/exclusive-osbornes-supporters-turn-him

Now, all those who were using this as evidence that austerity was the way forward, based on the information of these eminent professors etc, do they now believe Osborne should change his strategy?

The economy is a very slow moving thing. Whatever subtle tweak (or hammer blow) a Chancellor may make is unlikely to cause an effect straight away, so it takes time. Whilst everyone waits for those effects to be seen, life still goes on and other things happen in the meantime which may effect the now and the future. I'm sure you know all this already.

It took a good 20 years to see the disastourous decision by Thatcher to implement Right to Buy for example. Who knows, the Major years which brought us momentarily 15% interest rates, might have been a good thing afterall as we'd not have followed that up with a massive spending spree once the rate dropped down to 5%.

Osbourne does need to re-address his plan though, at the time Plan A was seen as appropriate but the Doctor only believed the illness was short-term, it now appears the world economy remains in dire straits and so we do now need a Plan B and Osbourne needs to suck it up, apologies, explain and get on with it.

Graham_Devon

I do find it amusing that we should ignore these silly economoists when they back George Osbourne up, but when they move away from him, suddenly we should take notice of them.

purch

lemonjelly wrote: »

Seems they've all changed their minds & now no longer support his policies...

It's commonly referred to as the "McTavish U Turn" :eek:

StevieJ

Hamish, remind me what happened when Capital Economics changed their stance on the housing market

Roger Bootle
Capital Economics
If I were Chancellor at this point, I would alter the plan, I would stop the cuts to public investment and I might even seek to increase it.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do find it amusing that we should ignore these silly economoists when they back George Osbourne up, but when they move away from him, suddenly we should take notice of them.

The point is he had 25 experts supporting his stance two years ago, now he has one.

chewmylegoff

lemonjelly wrote: »

Remember about 2 years ago when a load of economists wrote to national newspapers mutually endorsing Osborne's policies?

Seems they've all changed their minds & now no longer support his policies...



http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/exclusive-osbornes-supporters-turn-him

Now, all those who were using this as evidence that austerity was the way forward, based on the information of these eminent professors etc, do they now believe Osborne should change his strategy?

have they actually u-turned. there is a lot of chat about capital spending but they don't really seem to actually be u-turning on the view expressed in their original letter.

in any case, you can always find a bunch of "prominent" economists to disagree with a bunch of other "prominent" economists, the fact that some "prominent" economists now disagree with themselves comes as no surprise to me.

chewmylegoff

StevieJ wrote: »

The point is he had 25 experts supporting his stance two years ago, now he has one.

i think graham's point is that they have only become "experts" in the eyes of the left now that they (allegedly, according to the new stateman's interpretation of their comments) do not support the osborne deficit reduction plan. before that they were idiots who didn't know what they were talking about.