Halifax Predictions???

brit1234

Halifax Predictions

Last Month
£162,417 1.00% 0.50%

This Month
What are your predictions???

:think:
My thoughts is a big down say 1.5%, not just because of Nationwide but also because Halifax has the biggest swings back and forward with last month a big up.

Sibley

Something like 0.5% either way.

NEO72

I predict that if it is down, Hamish will be along to tell us that the Nationwide index is the only one worth taking notice of

But you're right - its up and down like a tart's knickers, so difficult to say - the trend is your friend.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Monthly figures are pretty much noise on all indices.

Halifax is noisier than most though. It's been known to drop 3% in a month, and then regain it all in the following month or two.

Anyway, house prices normally rise for the first few months of the year, then dip over the summer months, before blipping up in autumn and dipping back down at the end of the year.

You'd kind of expect this year to be a bit different though with the end of stamp duty, the Olympics, and now funding for lending kicking off as of next month, so could be anything really.

Thrugelmir

The % is immaterial. More important is the trend. If its negative which I feel it will be. Then it may be the start of a decline which reduces peoples confidence. At the moment confidence seems to be holding up the market in the face of numerous factors that will determine future direction.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The % is immaterial. More important is the trend. If its negative which I feel it will be. Then it may be the start of a decline which reduces peoples confidence. At the moment confidence seems to be holding up the market in the face of numerous factors that will determine future direction.

You don't half talk some rot.

DervProf

Sibley wrote: »

Something like 0.5% either way.

Blimey, "either way" ?

I thought you told us there was only one way.

Maybe you mean 3% +/- 0.5%.

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You don't half talk some rot.

I read Thrugelmir's post, and it sounds perfectly reasonable to me. You may not like it, or agree with it, but it is hardly "rot".

homelessskilledworker

DervProf wrote: »

I read Thrugelmir's post, and it sounds perfectly reasonable to me. You may not like it, or agree with it, but it is hardly "rot".

This particular post makes good sense, all I expect now for a good while is a downward trend with the odd blip here and there. If anyone is NOT looking at the trend they are not using housing data correctly.

All the indicies are slowly going into negative, I think we are on the verge of a second substantial fall now.

Halifax is down -0.6% for July for those that are interested by the way.

ruggedtoast

Over on hpc.co.uk they are celebrating this fall in house prices. They are excited!

One is predicting bigger falls to come. Another the justification of long years of waiting. They are filling with hope!

abaxas

Prediction.

+-3% with some waffle about something they want.

Eg recent dip is due to something being crap, please fix the crap thing.