House Prices Rising

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They use data from Acadametrics, Nationwide, Halifax, ONS and Rightmove to create a blended index.

..... blended into a HPI smoothie, and a Hamish McRampish MSE forum post.

Meanwhile, in the real world...............

House prices are going nowhere at the moment (with a slightly negative bias).

DervProf

crash123 wrote: »

Hamish I thought Nationwide was your preferred index?

It is. Sometimes.

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The ONS data is up 10% since 11/11....HOWEVER, this data changed in February, and jumped 18k in a month. (Jan average 206k, Feb average 224k).

IIRC, the ONS specifically state that their data is not suitable to be used across years.

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

IIRC, the ONS specifically state that their data is not suitable to be used across years.

Well it's certainly not at the moment. 9% value was added in Feb due to the change in metrics.

It can be used, I guess, especially if you want to show house prices are rising. But to use it in such a way does a dis-service IMHO. House prices have not and did not rise 9%, what was measured changed.

However, if you want to suggest house prices are rising, it's a fantastic measure to use, and in this case, has done the job.

Adding in rightmove is totally bizzare, as it removes the constants and measures two different things. They may aswell have included a homeowners index on how much they believe their house is worth and pumped the figures up a little more.

the_flying_pig

Graham_Devon wrote: »

...measuring 7 months for some bizarre reason...

Well, 'calendar year 2012' does have at least some non-arbitrariness about it. Assetz does like to do forecasts for each calendar year (tho doesn't as a rule trumpet month by month running total). But given stuey's track record & agenda i'd be surprised if the 7 month figure wasn't near enough the highest of all the ones you could possibly calculate for 1-12 months.

Graham_Devon

Seen a comment from stuartlaw now...

Apparently, we "shouldn't shoot the messenger" and he explans this is all data from X, Y and Z index, and leaves out rightmove.

http://www.assetz.co.uk/data-centre.html?chartID=1

If you go there, you can actually chart the index's. Interestingly, I can see why they have picked the 7 months, as neither their yearly or 3 monthly figures can show what they have shown.

Also, if you graph the ONS data, the spike is clear.

Assetz is a group of well-known and very successful property investment sourcers and advisers offering you selected UK and overseas investment property.

Intentions with this one are very clear!

You can also see why they have chosen to go from December!!

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes, of course.

But you wouldn't expect it if prices were crashing. Which of course they're not.

Not that you'd know that from reading this board lately, where the slightest few tenths of a percent of monthly noise heralds the next big leg down. Apparently.

I agree. Prices are flattish in nominal terms and probably falling by about 2-5% pa in real terms depending on who you ask.

There isn't a boom or a crash in progress in the UK on average right now, just a slow, steady fall in prices which is probably the best possible outcome from the position in 2007-9 for both bulls and bears.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

House prices are flatlining and have been for a number of years. 1% up 1%down doesn't mean much. We know there is a housing shortage, we know the wider economy would be in a terrible state if the government allowed house prices to collapse...... Too many factors in play that will guarantee house prices will not nosedive.

Thrugelmir

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

we know the wider economy would be in a terrible state if the government allowed house prices to collapse......

If house prices were to collapse. Do you actually believe that the Government could act in any positive manner?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If house prices were to collapse. Do you actually believe that the Government could act in any positive manner?

They where on the verge of collapse in 08... Swiftly propped up by the Government/BOE