House prices fall for first time in seven months

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

So it looks like many house sales are as I expected to be either cash buys or people are swapping like for like value houses i.e moving from one area to another into very similarly priced houses, porting.

I'm not sure your theory that cash buyers are an increasing proportion of transactions is in dispute.

You were trying to explain why the number of cash buyers was pushing prices up when you know they are overpriced.

shortchanged_2

wotsthat wrote: »

???

There are over 600,000 property transactions each year. That's 600,000 transactions where buyers and sellers agree what a reasonable price is. Obviously they neglected to check the shortchanged index.

Cash buyers overpaying is nonsense.

And don't forget wotsthat prices are falling in many regions. London and the South East is doing it's best to prop up the UK average.

Out of the 960,000 odd house transactions, London and the South East accounted for nearly 400,000.

Now you have to admit that is a fairly large proportion of the market and I can now see why 99% of the property rampers come from those regions.

wotsthat

noddynoo wrote: »

It is all about to go tits up Hopefully. Every house I have viewed that has gone on to sell has become re available within weeks. Very little completing

If tits up means 6 months of price increases followed by a monthly fall of 0.1% then yes it's gone tits up.

I'm hoping that my pension savings goes tits up too.

shortchanged_2

wotsthat wrote: »

You were trying to explain why the number of cash buyers was pushing prices up when you know they are overpriced.

Well it's pretty obvious. There is a restricted supply and with a serious lack of forced sellers they can hold out for high prices at present.

So buyers have to pay the premium at the moment but then that is reflected in the low level of transactions. Unfortunately it is a broken housing market at the moment.

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

And don't forget wotsthat prices are falling in many regions. London and the South East is doing it's best to prop up the UK average.

Out of the 960,000 odd house transactions, London and the South East accounted for nearly 400,000.

Now you have to admit that is a fairly large proportion of the market and I can now see why 99% of the property rampers come from those regions.

Who's disputing the fact that increases in London and the SE are a significant part of the UK average?

You think that house prices are overpriced but hundreds of thousands of buyers and sellers disagree and keep agreeing prices above where you think they should be.

How come? You mentioned it might be the influence of cash buyers.....

shortchanged_2

wotsthat wrote: »

If tits up means 6 months of price increases followed by a monthly fall of 0.1% then yes it's gone tits up.

I'm hoping that my pension savings goes tits up too.

So what are house prices doing in real terms?

wotsthat

shortchanged wrote: »

Well it's pretty obvious. There is a restricted supply and with a serious lack of forced sellers they can hold out for high prices at present.

So buyers have to pay the premium at the moment but then that is reflected in the low level of transactions. Unfortunately it is a broken housing market at the moment.

People are still dying, getting divorced and repossessed at fairly steady rates. As transactions fell the proportion of distressed sellers will have become a bigger proportion of the total transactions and, you'd think, a bigger influence on prices as buyers get a discount.

shortchanged wrote: »

So what are house prices doing in real terms?

Well according to this survey they minus 0.1% in a month. Convert that to real terms and you end up with about.... minus 0.1%.

I can't help thinking that it's all a bit more complicated than cash buyers splashing the cash and not caring about overpaying.

joe_blotts

joe_blotts

:rotfl:Crumbling you say, but what about the Boom Hamish promised us?

mystic_trev

shortchanged wrote: »

So what are house prices doing in real terms?

Well where I am (think Sevenoaks / Tunbridge Wells area) we certainly had a buoyant Spring. However, talking to Estate Agents, sales have slowed right down in the last few weeks.