Newsnight tonight: Housing

Graham_Devon

Interesting watching newsnight tonight. No less than 4 people (2 in video interviews) and 2 in the studio have mentioned house building as a way of boosting GDP. A housing crisis was also mentioned, suggesting we have the housing crisis, and we have the contruction crisis....get building.

Another person mentioned restrictive planning laws pulling back construction.

Are we finally getting somewhere? People appear to be urging the government to go further and use low interest rates in their favour and spend this money. Yet all they seem to want to build is stuff like high speed rail, which won't really make any odds to most people. Building toll roads was also mentioned alongside new green energy....but all of these won't help us right now, it's all added costs to the populace.

Could this quarters GDP figures finally be the catalyst towards getting much needed houses built? I can't see a downside personally, though I am sympathetic to the numbers of highly influential groups who will be totally against house building. For instance, the banks worrying about negative equity, investors worrying about portfolios etc.

Good news anyway, the need for housing, and the need for spending to improve GDP finally seems to be coming together on a mainstream platform. Vince Cable has nodded towards doing more to make it easier to build social housing.

Just wondering who will win out. The banks / investors, or the GDP figures. It's a tough call right now, but if we don't do something soon, we'll soon be swallowed up and the banks will lose out in any case.

Graham_Devon

On a second note, looking on the HPC site to see if anyone else had picked up on this, apparently there was a report on the BBC news about housebuilding being the key to a recovery.

Anyone catch this? Just mounts more to my case. Apparently the report stated house building was the answer, but concluded it can't happen.

Ahh, video here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18978075

In the search for growth, some economists have been looking for lessons from the 1930s when a house building boom helped provide a way out of the financial crisis.

TruckerT

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Apparently the report stated house building was the answer, but concluded it can't happen

But that's precisely the problem - the answer is always 'NO'

The money (billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions) which has been given to The Banks so that their directors can continue to enjoy their Mediterranean Yots, should have been directed towards National Economies

TruckerT

Graham_Devon

TruckerT wrote: »

But that's precisely the problem - the answer is always 'NO'

The money (billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions) which has been given to The Banks so that their directors can continue to enjoy their Mediterranean Yots, should have been directed towards National Economies

TruckerT

Having watched the video the conclusion appears to be that we can't build, because lenders won't lend.

Seems a bit disjointed to me. Doesn't even question prices, or even peoples abilities to borrow and pay back, just suggests the banks won't lend.

This doesn't stack up. We've seen what the government can do and how they can intervene with lending, what with all the various schemes over the past years.

I'm not too sure this is a problem that cannot be solved. Afterall, as the programme suggested, benefits are being cut, but the overal benefits spend increasing. This, IMHO, is because more and more can't afford to live, hence turning to housing benefits, SMI. More giving up work because of stupid 16 hour rules and work not paying living costs etc. You can cut benefits, but if the costs of living force more and more towards benefits, your benefits bill is going to increase.

Building houses would reduce the benefits bill, simply through lower rents. The conlusion that we simply can't build now because of laws and lending suggests these things cannot be looked at or changed. That's not the case. If it is, the UK simply stops.

TruckerT

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We've seen what the government can do and how they can intervene with lending, what with all the various schemes over the past years

Do you mean Quantitative Easing, and the latest idea of giving money to the banks so that they can offer reduced interest rates to businesses? The history of such schemes so far is that the banks simply pocket the money, never to be seen again

The conlusion that we simply can't build now because of laws and lending suggests these things cannot be looked at or changed. That's not the case

Join the revolution, then - membership applications very welcome

time to make your mind up

TruckerT

Running_Horse

But if house prices fail to rise, will the builders just abandon their developments as they did post 2007? The whole building boom thing seems predicated on scarcity prices. Once price begin to fall, they will just restrict availability...again.

TruckerT

My guess is that there are no longer any major property developers looking for opportunities

And I would recommend everyone else to follow their lead

If you have a home, be grateful

TruckerT

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Running_Horse wrote: »

if house prices fail to rise, will the builders just abandon their developments as they did post 2007? The whole building boom thing seems predicated on scarcity prices. Once price begin to fall, they will just restrict availability...again.

Prices only fell because the mortgage famine reduced the number of buyers though.

Builders can't keep spending money upfront to build houses that won't sell because there aren't enough mortgages. That's a good way to end up bankrupt very quickly.

homelessskilledworker

Graham_Devon wrote: »

On a second note, looking on the HPC site to see if anyone else had picked up on this, apparently there was a report on the BBC news about housebuilding being the key to a recovery.

Anyone catch this? Just mounts more to my case. Apparently the report stated house building was the answer, but concluded it can't happen.

Ahh, video here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18978075

Put it this way...

And I am obviously just speaking for myself. and this is what I intend to do when I do buy my next home.
I have a budget in mind where I will be buying white goods, furniture, and bits and bobs. In my case if there is any building work that needs doing I will be doing it myself(and that probably will be the case) along with all the trades that I know. But in many cases people have building work done when moving into a new home, even if it is only a few extra power points.

thats just me though, but multiply that into another half million house moves and we have a good pick up in the economy going.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Having watched the video the conclusion appears to be that we can't build, because lenders won't lend.

As we've been telling you for several years now....

Doesn't even question prices, or even peoples abilities to borrow and pay back,

Because those aren't the biggest limiting factors at the moment, for most people.

There are millions that could afford to pay back the mortgage, but can't get one to begin with, because the banks can't/won't lend.

This doesn't stack up. We've seen what the government can do and how they can intervene with lending, what with all the various schemes over the past years.

Schemes that have all been too little, too late, as far as the housing market is concerned.

The reality is that mortgage lending in the UK remains at around one third the level it was in 2007, and even then we didn't build nearly enough houses.

Adding a few tens of billions is a start, but it's not even remotely anything approaching the scale required to have a proper solution.

MacMickster

So if the major construction companies won't build (whether because of mortgage rationing or a hint of self-interest to protect their margins and the value of land that they have banked), then surely the answer is for the government to direct the next lot of money towards housing associations and local authorities in areas where there is a significant housing shortage.

We need to get Britain building.