UBS: Risk of hyperinflation highest in US and UK

Fella

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Highest?

Sure....

But at less than a 10% risk, it's not exactly high.

You don't think a 10% risk of something like hyperinflation is high?

A 1% risk of hyperinflation would be much too high.

For something as utterly disastrous as that to be rated a 10% chance is horrendous.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Fella wrote: »

You don't think a 10% risk of something like hyperinflation is high?

I don't think there is a 10% risk of hyperinflation.

The analyst in question has stated that in his opinion, such an outcome is unlikely, with a risk of "less than 10%".

That could be 10%, 5%, 1% or 0.001%

The reason an exact percentage was not quantified is because of course, it would be impossible to do so, beyond noting that it is "extremely unlikely".

rated a 10% chance is horrendous.

See above.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Link?

Proof?

Source?

Capital controls would be imposed to stop Greeks transferring money out of the country electronically and border checks would be reinstated to prevent them taking out unstamped euros in suitcases.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9262068/Greece-will-run-out-of-money-soon-warns-deputy-prime-minister.html

Rinoa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Capital controls would be imposed to stop Greeks transferring money out of the country electronically and border checks would be reinstated to prevent them taking out unstamped euros in suitcases.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9262068/Greece-will-run-out-of-money-soon-warns-deputy-prime-minister.html

He, he. That's just some 'economist' suggesting what may happen if Greece left the Euro.

But in post 6 you suggested Greece had already done this.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Actually, the Greeks (I believe) were banned from taking their money out of the country. Banks stopped transactions and borders were set up to check for money leaving the country.

So it could happen. Just look at how determined the Eurocrats are. The above shows how determined they are.

You just love extrapolating doom scenarios dontcha.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9262068/Greece-will-run-out-of-money-soon-warns-deputy-prime-minister.html

Oh !!!!!! Graham, you said that....

Actually, the Greeks (I believe) were banned from taking their money out of the country. Banks stopped transactions and borders were set up to check for money leaving the country.

Whereas the article said.....

Jonathan Tepper, an economist with Variant Perception, said a debt default and Greek euro exit would happen at only moments' notice after weeks of denials by all concerned.

"To avoid immediate runs on banks, it would be done in a 'surprise' announcement over a weekend when markets and banks are closed," he said. "If necessary, Monday and Tuesday would be declared bank holidays as well."

During this period, diplomats in Athens have been told, cash machines would be turned off and all banks closed. Inside, staff would be "redenominating" euro notes into the new drachma, probably by rubber-stamping them. Capital controls would be imposed to stop Greeks transferring money out of the country electronically and border checks would be reinstated to prevent them taking out unstamped euros in suitcases

In other words, it hasn't happened, and you're wrong.

It might happen if Greece leaves the Euro.... But that isn't what you said.;)

Graham_Devon

I did put "I believe" in brackets. That hinted that I wasn't sure whether it had already taken place or not. I remember reading something about border controls being set up, but I don't have the evidence right now to prove it.

The article from the telegraph hints at what was being talked about. Clearly there could or was intent to do this.

I know you just want to say I was wrong, and you are perfectly entitled to do so....but the fact I put those words in brackets kind of waters this down for you....and secondly you miss the entire point of the very fact is was being mulled over....so there is no reason it can't or won't happen in any such scenario.

If diplomats have been informed of plans, that's enough for me to suggest it could be done, which was my point in response to fella. All your posturing doesn't get around this.

vivatifosi

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Actually, the Greeks (I believe) were banned from taking their money out of the country. Banks stopped transactions and borders were set up to check for money leaving the country.

So it could happen. Just look at how determined the Eurocrats are. The above shows how determined they are.

Ok, this is one of my more fanciful ideas, but please bear with me. I think if the borders were closed they'd build tunnels under the border and burrow between the two. This may sound far fetched, but it has already been achieved when the border was closed between Gaza and Egypt: tunnels big enough to smuggle cars were built there. Further there have been tunnels discovered on the Mexico/USA border. Tunnels were also used in the siege of Sarajevo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smuggling_tunnel

Further there are a lot of small harbours in Spain. It would be relatively easy to sail money out. Although you'd risk being caught this way, if lots of people set to the water in boats, what are the authorities able to do to stop them?

Entrepreneurs exist on the black market every bit as much as in normal markets. They'd soon find a way to get money out, as well as making more from the activity.