Preparedness for when

Softstuff

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

In that case Ryanna, I've got a problem.

I don't have a handbag.

How about a European Carry-all Bob? (Seinfeld reference for those not familiar)

Ryanna2599

BB - what about a man bag? They're meant to be trendy...aren't they?

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

In that case Ryanna, I've got a problem.

I don't have a handbag.

Frugalsod

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

In that case Ryanna, I've got a problem.

I don't have a handbag.

So how can you be fully prepped without one?

Frugalsod

Softstuff wrote: »

You are far more polite about Tony Abbott than we are in this household Frugalsod.

I was trying to be very polite and not trigger any profanity blockers.

I really feel very sorry for Australians having to put up with him. Even the US media have done reports on him. Very funny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3IaKVmkXuk

moneyistooshorttomention

..and this is where it comes as a shock to note that Russian interest rates have more than doubled in only 2 months - from 8% up in several leaps to 17% now!!

I'm not quite sure how that works and what effect it would have on an economy??

Presumably everyone who already has loans has their interest rate payable on it fixed for the duration of the loan and it cant be increased. However, those with overdrafts and mortgages would be at risk and definitely could have their interest rates ramped up however much the bank wanted to?

The second question being whether anyone thinks there would be a knock-on economic effect on the West? Indirectly speaking...then there's a good chance and the first resort of a "leader in trouble" (ie Putin) is to look round for an external enemy to fight ....but I'm talking more directly than that economically.

mardatha

Oh Frugalsod thanks for that lol made my day! Somebody is worse than Gordon Brown !! never thought that was possible lol

[Deleted User]

Just been in again, and spotted a few prepper type things.

Firstly, the 24 LED round lamps, with hook and magnet, for just 99p each.

Also, a Microfibre Towel (60cm X 120cm) for £1-99.

Frugalsod

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

..and this is where it comes as a shock to note that Russian interest rates have more than doubled in only 2 months - from 8% up in several leaps to 17% now!!

For those old enough to remember the ERM crisis we had a big increase over an even shorter period. Though when they abandoned entry to the Euro they dropped the additional 2% increase that they had planned.

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

I'm not quite sure how that works and what effect it would have on an economy??

It will cause a mini panic just like it did here. Though most people here did not know anything until the 9pm news.

This time the cause was probably large flows of money out of the country prior as oil revenues fell. The typical increase in interest rates is to attract "hot money" so that investors will make better returns and drive up the currency as they move in, but the problem was that the currency might be falling too far to make 17% even an acceptable return for the losses on the currency. It is also why there will be a lot of losses as investors will seek shelter back in the dollar and so will be forced to unwind a $9 trillion carry trade with investments in the emerging markets. These markets are already suffering and part of that could be money invested in Russia.

Apple have stopped online sales in Russia because the prices are too volatile for them to cope. They could possibly pass the entire credit risk to the buyer and only accept payment in dollars but that would mean all their products will be a third more expensive overnight.

The problem is that countries that have had huge inflows of currency sometimes have problems adapting when the investors get spooked and withdraw their money too quickly. This is one of the causes of the Asian currency crisis a few years ago. The usual trick is to impose capital controls which traps money within the country for a period. The problem is that if the currency moves too much it becomes as self fulfilling prophecy as investors panicking about possible capital controls force the country concerned into imposing capital controls. Though it can sometimes just be a temporary measure. Iceland is about to drop its currency controls after it had to impose them when their banks failed.

The UK has the same vulnerability to all the foreign money that arrived over the last six years and entered the London housing market. One year it was Greeks, next Italians last year Chinese Russians and Malaysians. Eventually they might get spooked and want to take their money out. That will cause the pound to crash and we could see interest rates rise to balance that risk

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

Presumably everyone who already has loans has their interest rate payable on it fixed for the duration of the loan and it cant be increased. However, those with overdrafts and mortgages would be at risk and definitely could have their interest rates ramped up however much the bank wanted to?

Many things like credit cards have variable rates so will impact very quickly. Germany which do not have many credit cards in issue is less impacted by such an increase, as all such consumer debts are cleared within the month. The UK will be hit hard because of the high numbers of credit cards and the sums that are outstanding each month. Payday loans could also increase, especially if they have to be rolled over, as many are.

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

The second question being whether anyone thinks there would be a knock-on economic effect on the West? Indirectly speaking...then there's a good chance and the first resort of a "leader in trouble" (ie Putin) is to look round for an external enemy to fight ....but I'm talking more directly than that economically.

If there are any big bankruptcies there could be large claims on issuers of credit default swaps, like Barclays or Deutsche bank. Also much sooner there will be a credit crunch as lenders will be worried about who has big loans to Russia that might not be repaid, and so be concerned about which banks have a lot of exposure to Russia. Look at German and Austrian banks for wobbles on that score. Though as soon as a western bank fails watch for others to start to get into trouble just like Northern Rock.

[Deleted User]

The weather is still pretty filthy horrible here.

It has been raining almost non-stop, all day.

RAS

Ditto Bob - horizontal rain.