Preparedness for when

mac2008

nuatha wrote: »

The politicians have been blaming increasing domestic consumption for the apparent shortfall over the next ten years. repeatedly promoting energy efficiency measures as the answer.
It appears that these energy efficiency measures have been fairly widely adopted and that is the major factor in the falling domestic consumption.
If energy efficiency measures are near saturation point then the forecasts that we're being fed by government are seriously flawed and the predicted shortfall is potentially far worse than the forecasts say. Not that I should be particularly surprised by politicians bending and distorting statistics or lying to the general public. I'm also concerned that this report may well have been massaged before release.

Have you taken a look at the 2014 energy capacity assessment I linked to in post 24254? They go into a lot of detail on the methodology used to build the scenarios.


Also I'm not sure energy efficiency measures are anywhere near saturation point, I suspect reductions to date are more reflecting that we were starting with some of the worst insulated housing stock in Europe. Am sure there is plenty more to be done yet. Happy to be shown figures suggesting otherwise though!


BTW don't think for one second I'm suggesting that anything any government says is fair or accurate but at least there is lots of info in that report.

mrsmortenharket

Thanks for the messages.

Luckily we just stopped the water coming in. It was like a miracle.

Essex police have warned against going out. My friend on Canvey has been flooded out. She has a new baby.

We have been lucky all things considered.

If anyone is on book face there is a group called rayleigh action group and there are pics on there.

This situation in Ukraine with that plane is worrying. Will be stocking up this week.

Night all x

nuatha

mac2008 wrote: »

Have you taken a look at the 2014 energy capacity assessment I linked to in post 24254? They go into a lot of detail on the methodology used to build the scenarios.

I did, though I'll take another look after reading the 2012 document. It could just be my mood that meant the 2012 document created a more negative reaction.

Also I'm not sure energy efficiency measures are anywhere near saturation point, I suspect reductions to date are more reflecting that we were starting with some of the worst insulated housing stock in Europe. Am sure there is plenty more to be done yet. Happy to be shown figures suggesting otherwise though!


BTW don't think for one second I'm suggesting that anything any government says is fair or accurate but at least there is lots of info in that report.

I doubt there's been that much movement on insulation - at least the lack of takeup in the various insulation deals suggests there's still a lot work to be done.
The near saturation point comment was from something I'd been reading recently (and typically can't find at the mo) suggesting that we'd gone well beyond those who would voluntarily adopt energy efficiency measures, that replacement appliances had carried savings into what would typically be refusenik territory. (Though replacing tech for the sake of running cost savings is rarely going to be cost or energy efficient)

As the saying goes, there's lies, damned lies ...

[Deleted User]

MRSMH thank goodness you managed to fend off the waters rising, so pleased that the house is safe. Your poor friend though, what a nightmare having that with a small baby to deal with too, I hope she has somewhere to stay until there can be clean ups and sorting out. I hope that the waters are down in your area now and that there is not too much damage to the nrighbourhood, thanks for posting to let us know, good luck, Lyn xxx.

GreyQueen

mac2008 wrote: »

Why are falls in domestic energy consumption worrying?


And yes, it looks like we are becoming less self sufficient, with over 60% of fuel for electricity imported, from as far afield as the middle east, south america and even 5% from Australia!


http://www.goodenergy.co.uk/blog/articles/2012/11/16/where-does-the-uk-s-electricity-come-from

As someone who deals with many thousands of council tenants (and am one myself) I can give you a possible explanation for falling energy consumption; poverty.

It is pretty uncommon for council homes to be on conventional meters these days. Prepayment (card or key meters) are in about 80% of homes, in my experience. Younger tenants often have a poor credit history and the utilities won't even accept them as customers unless they agree to have prepayment meters, so there's a constant churn of conventional meters coming out and prepayment ones going in. It rarely moves the other way, although I have persusaded utility company peeps to do so, on a customer's behalf, but it wasn't easy.

If you have a prepayment meter, you pay more for you supply (unless you are with Ebico) and thus compound your poverty. You also self-disconnect from supply when you have insufficient funds and thus are using nothing. Your self-disconnection just shows up as lower consumption overall, but it doesn't mean you and your children aren't cold and miserable and getting poorly.

One of my neighbours has had no electricity supply to his flat for about 6 years. He got into debt and was 'persuaded' by the utility company to move to prepayment meter with the debt loaded onto it. Because he is one of life's unfortunates (mentally ill) he hasn't been able to sort this out. And because you need an electricity supply to your water tank to get the hot water heated by the boiler house which you pay for as a service charge ......he hasn't had hot water for all that time, either. And the nature of his MH problems means he's not ameniable to being helped, either by floating support workers from MH charities or concerned neighbours like SG.

Throughout the colder months of the year, I will be talking to people in distress over the amount of gas they're burning through on their prepayment meters. Figures of £30-£40 per week aren't uncommon. Imagine trying to find that whilst on JSA, income support, ESA etc. It's untenable. I've had one customer with a gas CH system only a few months old (and thus very efficient) which she couldn't afford to use at all and she wanted our permission for the utlitily company to take out the meter, as she'd found that even if she used no gas at all, there would be a charge just for having the meter in there.

As always, one needs to look behind the curtain to see what is really going on.

mardatha

I was going to post that very same reason. People can't afford it any more and this winter with the cuts it will get worse. We scraped by last winter because it was a mild one - but get a bad winter and there will be a lot of very ill people.

Frugalsod

nuatha wrote: »

The politicians have been blaming increasing domestic consumption for the apparent shortfall over the next ten years. repeatedly promoting energy efficiency measures as the answer.
It appears that these energy efficiency measures have been fairly widely adopted and that is the major factor in the falling domestic consumption.
If energy efficiency measures are near saturation point then the forecasts that we're being fed by government are seriously flawed and the predicted shortfall is potentially far worse than the forecasts say. Not that I should be particularly surprised by politicians bending and distorting statistics or lying to the general public. I'm also concerned that this report may well have been massaged before release.

My spend on electricity and energy is almost identical now to what it was in 1997. How many people can say that? The price of energy has shot up over that period so my savings are down to being more efficient. It is down to using more efficient appliances, and methods. I have LED rather than incandescent bulbs. I even have motion sensor lights in the hall so they can go off more rapidly, even if left on. I cook only with microwaves and am looking to use a wonder bag instead of a slow cooker.

Frugalsod

mardatha wrote: »

I was going to post that very same reason. People can't afford it any more and this winter with the cuts it will get worse. We scraped by last winter because it was a mild one - but get a bad winter and there will be a lot of very ill people.

A couple of years ago I was living in rented accommodation that was so draughty it was pointless putting the heating on. It also had absolutely no loft insulation at all. So heating it would have been futile. It was a very cold winter and I coped because I looked online and found a different idea of heating the person rather than the room. So I got myself a musucbag. Something like this.



And to keep myself warm I hung a rubber hot water bottle inside the neck of the sleeping bag to warm the chest and had thermal gloves and balaclava on as well.

I could walk around and do things like working at my computer desk and kept perfectly warm. My bed had two ceramic hot water bottles and I was perfectly warm in bed. My gas bill for that winter was 50p. I made more back in dual fuel discount, £50, than I paid by a factor of 100 times.

If people heated themselves instead they could still cope.

mac2008

GreyQueen wrote: »

As someone who deals with many thousands of council tenants (and am one myself) I can give you a possible explanation for falling energy consumption; poverty.

It is pretty uncommon for council homes to be on conventional meters these days. Prepayment (card or key meters) are in about 80% of homes, in my experience. Younger tenants often have a poor credit history and the utilities won't even accept them as customers unless they agree to have prepayment meters, so there's a constant churn of conventional meters coming out and prepayment ones going in. It rarely moves the other way, although I have persusaded utility company peeps to do so, on a customer's behalf, but it wasn't easy.

If you have a prepayment meter, you pay more for you supply (unless you are with Ebico) and thus compound your poverty. You also self-disconnect from supply when you have insufficient funds and thus are using nothing. Your self-disconnection just shows up as lower consumption overall, but it doesn't mean you and your children aren't cold and miserable and getting poorly.

One of my neighbours has had no electricity supply to his flat for about 6 years. He got into debt and was 'persuaded' by the utility company to move to prepayment meter with the debt loaded onto it. Because he is one of life's unfortunates (mentally ill) he hasn't been able to sort this out. And because you need an electricity supply to your water tank to get the hot water heated by the boiler house which you pay for as a service charge ......he hasn't had hot water for all that time, either. And the nature of his MH problems means he's not ameniable to being helped, either by floating support workers from MH charities or concerned neighbours like SG.

Throughout the colder months of the year, I will be talking to people in distress over the amount of gas they're burning through on their prepayment meters. Figures of £30-£40 per week aren't uncommon. Imagine trying to find that whilst on JSA, income support, ESA etc. It's untenable. I've had one customer with a gas CH system only a few months old (and thus very efficient) which she couldn't afford to use at all and she wanted our permission for the utlitily company to take out the meter, as she'd found that even if she used no gas at all, there would be a charge just for having the meter in there.

As always, one needs to look behind the curtain to see what is really going on.

I suspect you're right and poverty has played a part, which is terrible, really. Especially as they will often have no option to move or downsize, or cut back in other areas.

GQ, I think you asked some time ago about measures of inflation of things people actually have to buy, as opposed to some arbitrary basket including TVs and sofas. Have you come across the Joseph Rowntree Foundation's minimum income standard reports?

http://www.jrf.org.uk/publications/minimum-income-standard-2014

I'm sure I'm preaching to the converted, but this shows how CPI isn't a good figure to reply upon! I like the JRF as it doesn't just talk about minimum income in terms of what you need to prevent yourself dying, but what you need to have a "socially acceptable" standard of living - i.e. to be able to contribute (and feel included) in some kind of society.

Frugalsod

GreyQueen wrote: »

As someone who deals with many thousands of council tenants (and am one myself) I can give you a possible explanation for falling energy consumption; poverty.

...

As always, one needs to look behind the curtain to see what is really going on.

I totally agree, though much harder for them to fund the changes like get a more efficient boiler and to be able to take the risk of having a direct debit into their account. If they do not see how much they are using until the end of winter they do not necessarily notice how high their bill is going to be. Personally there should not be a premium for being on a prepayment meter as the energy companies are also not having any financial risk with non payment. There should also be a ban on standing charges as these are very regressive if you are a low user. Standing charges were sensible when it was a nationalised industry but wholly inappropriate now they are privatised.