Preparedness for when

nuatha

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

Anyone seem the film?

It's very far fetched, in that the main character wakes up one morning, to find the entire population has disappeared, despite the world being completely undamaged :huh:

It does, however, pose one very interesting question, namely, how long can a human being live, in total isolation, before losing his/her marbles?

Depends how far he is from Poundstretcher
Generally humans are social animals, though there are plenty of examples of humans surviving fairly long periods without human contact. (Often involuntary in the case of the elderly)
Both Herself and me can cope with fairly long periods without human interaction, but don't do as well without cats being around.

cornishchick

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

Anyone seem the film?

It's very far fetched, in that the main character wakes up one morning, to find the entire population has disappeared, despite the world being completely undamaged :huh:

It does, however, pose one very interesting question, namely, how long can a human being live, in total isolation, before losing his/her marbles?

You'll be alright BB , you have only just brought some .:rotfl:


I remember one where the guy is happy to be alone. He goes to the library and gleefully stacks up all the books he wants to read than breaks his glasses?
Always stuck with me, the way he breaks down when that happened, I always have spare glasses now.

[Deleted User]

I think what would probably make it especially difficult for him, is that everything he needs is there for him.

If he were washed up on a desert island, Robinson Crusoe style, he'd be kept busy trying to survive (P.L.A.N occupies a lot of time and effort), whereas he doesn't have any of this to concern him.

Frugalsod

I actually think interest rates will not rise for several years, even though the government might want to normalise the situation. I think that the economy is still far too weak to cope with a rise in rates. I read a lot of economic bloggers who fear hyperinflation, when the problem is that there is still substantial oversupply available so deflation of general prices is far more likely. Asset deflation is absolutely definite but when is another matter. Housing is far too high and if prices were to fall to a sustainable level millions would be in negative equity. Even in the US where prices have risen recently there are still millions in negative equity, in fact it could be as many as 19.4% of all mortgages are in negative equity.

http://www.zillow.com/visuals/negative-equity/#4/39.98/-106.92

For me the most likely SHTF situation will be another financial crisis, again with the same banks at the epicentre. If that happens then assets could fall in value and the first thing that will happen will be a substantial fall in incomes of most people. (politicians excepted). That will mean the debt burden for most people will increase, and foreclosures might rise rapidly. That is why I am concentrating on becoming completely debt free as fast as possible.

If there were a bank failure then the government and banks will raid everyones deposits as per Cyprus, and so I will not be keeping much money in the banks, but in cash. Losing interest will never make up for losing a huge chunk of my money in a bail in.

As for your plan to over pay and clear your mortgage early that is a very sensible plan, especially if I am right and debt deflation becomes the real problem.

Perplexed_Pineapple

nuatha wrote: »

.........Sorry, we may be at cross purposes here, I wasn't disagreeing that the general trend left individuals worse off, but trying to push the idea that SHTF scenarios are real and imminent threats to your standard of living over and above what is the general trend, and would be even in a sound economy (if there ever has been such a thing)...

I think what you lose in terms of SHTF situations is resilience. If you look at the response to the floods on the levels, and contrast to, say, last years typhoon in the Philipines, there was little loss of life and despite the criticisms of TPTB not too bad a response. This is made possible by affluence - outside the area of the disaster people have spare capacity, vehicles, fuel, essential supplies, and can and did step in to help out. The poorer the country generally, the more public services are run down and private citizens also have less to give.

Frugalsod wrote: »

I actually think interest rates will not rise for several years, even though the government might want to normalise the situation. That is why I am concentrating on becoming completely debt free as fast as possible.

If there were a bank failure then the government and banks will raid everyones deposits as per Cyprus, and so I will not be keeping much money in the banks, but in cash. Losing interest will never make up for losing a huge chunk of my money in a bail in.

As for your plan to over pay and clear your mortgage early that is a very sensible plan, especially if I am right and debt deflation becomes the real problem.

This is a really difficult one. Normalcy bias tells us interest rates are too low, but if we get into a deflationary spiral they may actually be too high. Sweden for example is thinking about negative interest rates as they had in Japan.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10774013/Eight-EU-states-in-deflation-as-calls-grow-for-QE-in-Sweden.html
I'm completely in agreement about paying off debt, regardless, it ties you up and leaves you entirely in the hands of the banksters.

GreyQueen

Afternoon all.

Has anyone had a chance to read this recently-published book yet?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0c6e9302-c3e2-11e3-a8e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2zLHWz1On

I've read a few reviews and think that it's something I shall try to get my teeth into. Very soundly argued case that capitalism doesn't work.

I think those people devoting their efforts to being debt-free in general, and mortgage-free in particular, are very prudent. I'm far too poor to qualify for a mortgage and have never done consumer debt, but am trimming my sails to be as flexible as possible. I do think that we are heading for a series of falls (another Archdruid fan here btw).

What I see in my present job and also in my previous one in debt advice is that there is a gloss of 'prosperity' over a lot of people's lives, but it's like a thin veneer of lavish wood over a worm-eaten carcase of cheap pine. The underlying structure isn't sound and won't stand up to pressure, never mind last the test of time.

I guess the trick with capitalism is to kid the debt-serfs (the majority of us) that they can hope to get to the easy life themselves, and to keep them just well-enough fed and housed that they will be able keep on grafting to enrich the oligarchs.

Trouble is, it's a delicate balance to achieve. We debt-serfs must be made to feel invested in the system, that we have a stake, that we will be supported in periods of unemployment, illhealth or our old age. Or we'll hoard every spare penny beyond paying for a subsistence livlihood, or withdraw from the game altogether.

There is, of course, a Third Way. One which many seem to follow; party on, take lots of alcohol and other drugs, and try not to think about where the world is going.

Alas, I have never had the temperament to be able to ignore reality, although I think I might be a more relaxed person if I could only engage with the circuses and not also think about the bread.

[Deleted User]

There is another way GQ and that is to live a realistic lifestyle NOW, not to expect an easy life that you haven't worked to get but to find satisfaction in the things you have been able to aquire and pay for and not to feel that everyone in the world except you has a dream lifestlye and thereby feel hard done by!!! We don't have a mortgage, we paid it off with redundnacy money when our aquaintance used theirs for Disneyland and goodies, we don't have debts, we live slightly under our means and even manage a little bit of savings every month. We holiday here or with one of our daughters , I know I've just been to Paris but that was a present from DD at christmas so not a cost to us. I live on YS goods, never pass an opportunity up for a bargain and if I can't find what I want at a price I'm prepared to pay change the menu to what I can afford. If TSHTF in a major way I think your response will be different if you are a glass half full or glass half empty person, if you've actually considered the possibility that it could happen at all and if you have some sort of contingency plan at the back of your mind when it does. I think that if you've gone that step further and got some practical skills and experience and know that you can get along in not too much discomfort without all the trappings of modern life you're of a different mindset altogether. You can't save the whole world, they just think you're crazy and as you say carry on partying, but you can save yourselves and that's really as much as it's feasibly possible to consider doing.

GreyQueen

Aaahh, Mrs LW, you;'re preaching to the choir with me. Been living well below my admittedly-modest means all my life.

A few million of us doing likewise could crash the economy, though.

Tomorrow, weather permitting, I shall indulge myself in the first carboot of the season. A few secondhand books for pennies, maybe one or two things for the homestead, something preptastic perhaps.........? Happiness is a field full of other people's cast-offs for sale for pennies on the pound.

[Deleted User]

I know I am love, but I hope my homespun philosophy might just reach a few prospective choristors who are reading along but still uncertain!!! No one is immune to personal SHTF moments as we all know, but it's a good thing to put out there the fact that you don't actually NEED all the accoutrements of modern living to be comfortable isn't it?

Butterfly_Brain

COOLTRIKERCHICK wrote: »

done that, lol....


at the moment, we have a litter of piglets

I love baby piggies :grinheart