Mortgage approvals fall 30%

chewmylegoff

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes.

The CML figures are a component part of the BOE figures.

Not all lenders belong to the CML, but the BOE reports on the whole of the market AFAIK.



No, not writing off anything.

Just noting that according to the BOE, approvals rose in April.

Whilst they're obviously different sources, I'm not so sure what's going on here.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3211

This is CML for March, which is broadly the same as BOE - 51,200 mortgages c.f. 51,067 per BOE.

So CML for April shows 36,000 c.f. 51,823 for BOE.

Something odd is going on there edit: see stats below. [edit: ignore this - I wonder if BOE's figures lag CML by one month for some reason to do with what the BOE and CML define as a "mortgage approval".]

chewmylegoff

wotsthat wrote: »

Well something's wrong. One dataset shows a 30pc fall in approvals and another up by 1.5%.

I'd expect two datasets measuring exactly the same thing to be closer than that. The -30pc figure looks a bit suspect.

Here we go. It's not the 30% fall this month that looks a bit suspect. It's the 40% rise in the CML figures in March 12.

BOE:
58728 (Jan 12)
48986
51067
51823 (Apr 12)

CML
35100 (Jan 12)
36600
51200
36000 (Apr 12)

paulmapp8306

That looks about right.

Either way, house prices wont go down that much (in actual price, not relative to inflation) even if fewer mortgages are given. The factor is equity existing owners have. If they are in neg eq or close, then they wont sell unless forced. People may WANT to move, but if they cant get what they need for their current homes they are not ABLE to move - hence the lowest price is set there. If buyers wont/cant pay the asking price - the current owners just stay in the house as they cant afford to lower the asking (unless as I say - they are forced).

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

So CML for April shows 36,000 c.f. 51,823 for BOE.

Something odd is going on there edit: see stats below. [edit: ignore this - I wonder if BOE's figures lag CML by one month for some reason to do with what the BOE and CML define as a "mortgage approval".]

The difference is down to remortgaging. Around 25,100 per the CML in April.

Obviously this not new money just a transfer between lenders.


http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3244

MrRee_2

No-one is dropping their house prices here in the South.

I will admit that the market seems slower than it did in the 9 months before April 2012 ..... but, it's certainly not resulting in falling house prices.

I think we ALL know by now that House Prices will not be falling in any meaniful way ....... if we can come through what we have come through without a crash - there won't EVER be one.

You may as well stop throwing rent down the toilet and buy NOW!

chewmylegoff

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The difference is down to remortgaging. Around 25,100 per the CML in April.

Obviously this not new money just a transfer between lenders.


http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3244

If that's right, and it may well be, it still doesn't explain the blip in CML's figures in March compared with the BOE.

The CML's figures including remortgaging are:

Jan: 35,600 + 26,600 = 62,200 (BOE = 58,728)
Feb: 36,600 + 25,500 = 62,100 (BOE = 48,986)
Mar: 51,200 + 28,200 = 79,400 (BOE = 51,067)
Apr: 36,000 + 25,100 = 61,100 (BOE = 51,823)

Or:

CML / BOE

100.0 100
99.8 83.4
127.7 87.0
98.2 88.2

Also CML say they are advances not approvals. You would expect advances to be lower than approvals, so why are the BoE figures lower if they also include remortgages.

I'm too lazy to look up the way the BOE figures are compiled but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense from where I'm standing.

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

I'm too lazy to look up the way the BOE figures are compiled but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense from where I'm standing.

Approvals could be granted up to 6 months ahead of completion.

So the lower BOE figures suggest that mortgage lending has yet to contract even lower.

So last month, May, could well see a sizable fall on the April numbers.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The difference is down to remortgaging.

Wrong again.

The BOE figures are mortgage approvals for purchase.

They do not include remortgage figures.

Thrugelmir

From the CML.

The CML does not publish statistics for mortgage approvals so the statistics from the Bank of England, BBA and BSA can not be compared with the CML regulated mortgage survey and gross lending figures.

This link may explain things more clearly.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/stats-timeline.pdf?ref=7201

chewmylegoff

Thrugelmir wrote: »

From the CML.



This link may explain things more clearly.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/stats-timeline.pdf?ref=7201

Is the issue then that we are comparing advances (CML) with approvals (BOE), neither of which sets of figures include remortgages.

Can anyone be bothered to find the BOE info at source on their website? I tried to look but this stupid machine is still running IE6 and it was unbearably incompatible.