Shapps hails collapse in house building

Turnbull2000

http://redbrickblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/12/a-dereliction-of-duty-2/

‘Far from the predictions of the doom merchants, today’s figures show work has started on over 15,000 new affordable homes since last September – a massive increase on the previous six month period. This is clear evidence that our efforts to get Britain building are starting to yield impressive results.’

But in reality...

• Total housing starts (all tenures) for each full year have fallen from 64,692 in 2009/10 to 19,067 in 2011/12 – .
• Total Affordable Housing starts (which include a number of types of home that stretch the meaning of the word ‘affordable to the limits) fell from 54,303 in 2009/10 to 15,698 in 2011/12.
• Total Social Rented Homes starts fell from 39,501 in 2009/10 to 1,048 in 2011/12.
• Affordable home ownership starts fell from 11,220 in 2009/10 to 3,448 in 2011/12.

Looks like our chronic shortage may become a catastrophic shortage in just a few years time.

Turnbull2000

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18416365

The desperate shortage of affordable homes in England appears to be worsening, following Tuesday's publication of national housing statistics.



The Homes and Communities Agency has announced that the number of "affordable housing starts" for 2011-2012 was just 15,698 - a 68% fall on the previous year.



The Housing Minister Grant Shapps has said he welcomes the figures as showing a "rapid and dramatic" increase in the numbers of new affordable homes being built.


But one might say this is simply to compare a disastrous six months to March 2012 with an absolutely catastrophic figure for the previous six months.

When one considers that each year in England an estimated 250,000 new households are created, a total housing starts figure of less than 20,000 in the past financial year represents a distinct worsening of the current crisis.


Wherever one looks in Tuesday's figures, one sees a fall in housing provision from where we were 12 months ago

Degenerate

I distinctly recall from a couple of years back, that several of the housing bears around here were convinced their inability to own a home was all Gordon Brown's fault, and that a Tory Government would somehow fix this situation.

CLAPTON

a little test


1. what is affordable housing?

2. who subsidises 'affordable' housing?

3. who benefits from affordable housing?

Degenerate

CLAPTON wrote: »

a little test


1. what is affordable housing?

2. who subsidises 'affordable' housing?

3. who benefits from affordable housing?

Who cares? To me the most significant statistic was this:

Total housing starts (all tenures) for each full year have fallen from 64,692 in 2009/10 to 19,067 in 2011/12

Forget "affordable", we aren't building nearly enough houses, full stop.

Graham_Devon

Degenerate wrote: »

I distinctly recall from a couple of years back, that several of the housing bears around here were convinced their inability to own a home was all Gordon Brown's fault, and that a Tory Government would somehow fix this situation.

That's probably because you are a labour looney.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

a little test


1. what is affordable housing?

2. who subsidises 'affordable' housing?

3. who benefits from affordable housing?

1. The houses on an estate most often visited by the police. Usually identified by ill mannered children, rubbish and bull terriers.

2. The taxpayer via housing benefit.

3. The people that live in them.

chewmylegoff

Presumably housebuilders build as many houses as they think they can sell, so 20,000 houses started last year means house builders do t think they can sell any more than that...or am I missing something?

Degenerate

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That's probably because you are a labour looney.

Touched a nerve, did I? If I could be bothered to spend the time, I could certainly dig up some embarassing quotes from you regarding house prices and Labour vs the Torys. Indeed, only recently you expressed your shock and disappointment at the rejuvenation of right-to-buy (you know, that thing the Torys invented in the first place.)

One might be forgiven for thinking that all the time you were cheerleading the Torys in the run-up to the election, you were actually completely ignorant of their policy track-record, and only discovered your mistake once they gained power.

BTW, I'm not a Labour Looney, I despised rather a lot of things about the last Government (Harriet Harman, Jaqui Smith. David Blunkett, ID Cards, NHS IT project, to name but a few). It just so happens that I was a fan of Gordon Brown's leadership and management of the economic crisis (cue laughter), and think the current lot are totally inept in that regard.

Turnbull2000

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Presumably housebuilders build as many houses as they think they can sell, so 20,000 houses started last year means house builders do t think they can sell any more than that...or am I missing something?

The only politically feasible route to lots of housebuilding is a slackening of mortgage restrictions and lots more lending. This may of course result in a rapid rise in prices as loosened lending and a supply shortage that will take at least a decade to recover align, but the alternative is renting forever and investors snapping up the lower end instead.

The Tories are likely well aware that mass housebuilding now combined with restricted mortgage lending would eventually result in a fall in nominal house prices and depreciation of land values. They're clearly determined to avoid this scenario.

CLAPTON

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Presumably housebuilders build as many houses as they think they can sell, so 20,000 houses started last year means house builders do t think they can sell any more than that...or am I missing something?

well yes in principle

but they have to build 30% 'affordable' houses

hint: this mean that the builders have to build 30% of the houses at a loss

now some people might
-assume that they willing so this as a social service
-try to increase the price of the other 70% to recoup the loss
-reduce the spec of the other 70% to recoup the loss

which all means they can't build at a price and specification that most rational person would buy at