Spain.. A moment of clarity on my part

martinthebandit

Interesting article here, which (I think) basically says what I said earlier

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/world/europe/spain-holds-a-trump-card-in-bank-bailout-talks.html?ref=global-home

:cool:

Mistral001

We are only discussing economics. Why was the EU set up in the 1950's? It was to make sure that a war would never start up again in Europe. Dictators come to power in Europe when countries become much poorer than their neighbours. Greece and Spain had dictators in the 1970's remember. Do we want to return to the situation where we have dictatorships on our doorstep?

pqrdef

Mistral001 wrote: »

Do we want to return to the situation where we have dictatorships on our doorstep?

We didn't want it last time, but do we know how to avoid it?

pqrdef

martinthebandit wrote: »

......... and the euro project cannot afford for Spain to fail

Won't necessarily stop them bringing that about through sheer incompetence. Few European politicians are economists, and many have no respect for economic realities.

First question is whether it's penetrated Frau Merkel's skull that the object of the exercise would be to support Spain's ability to borrow in the markets. Otherwise there's no point.

Next question is whether the Germans know how to do that. There needs to be a show of determination to do whatever it takes. No confidence is inspired by the continual threat of withholding the next slice of money. After the Greek debacle the EU will find it very hard to be convincing now.

Especially after yesterday. Worrying about bank bailouts is yesterday's problem. We did that when people were still expecting a fast recovery. Now we're in a double dip and we need banks to lend lend lend, it's hardly the best time to tell them that if they do they'll probably go bust.

CLAPTON

Mistral001 wrote: »

We are only discussing economics. Why was the EU set up in the 1950's? It was to make sure that a war would never start up again in Europe. Dictators come to power in Europe when countries become much poorer than their neighbours. Greece and Spain had dictators in the 1970's remember. Do we want to return to the situation where we have dictatorships on our doorstep?

there has been no (major) european wars since 1945; however that doesn't mean we need to become one single state

maybe think about the old Yugoslavia
american civil war

all different of course but forcing people against their will into a single state may not guarentee peace.

Mrs_Bones

CLAPTON wrote: »

all different of course but forcing people against their will into a single state may not guarentee peace.

Forcing people against their will into a single state will probably bring about the very war they want to avoid. At least it did last time Germany tried it.

Mistral001

CLAPTON wrote: »

there has been no (major) european wars since 1945; however that doesn't mean we need to become one single state

maybe think about the old Yugoslavia
american civil war

all different of course but forcing people against their will into a single state may not guarentee peace.

Nobody is forcing us to do anything. I cannot see anybody in the rest of Europe pleading us to stay in. We are hardly even players.

Angela Merkel was brought up in East Germany ruled by a Communist government, with no chance of ever travelling to the west. Many Greeks can remember the days of generals dictatorship in the 1970's. Also the same with the Spanish - they can remember Francho's dictatorship in the 1970's , never mind the Balkan states and Yugoslavia. To us it is just Europe Group PLC and whether it is in our financial interest to be part of the group Perhaps the rest of Europe sees it differently.

CLAPTON

Mistral001 wrote: »

Nobody is forcing us to do anything. I cannot see anybody in the rest of Europe pleading us to stay in. We are hardly even players.

Angela Merkel was brought up in East Germany ruled by a Communist government, with no chance of ever travelling to the west. Many Greeks can remember the days of generals dictatorship in the 1970's. Also the same with the Spanish - they can remember Francho's dictatorship in the 1970's , never mind the Balkan states and Yugoslavia. To us it is just Europe Group PLC and whether it is in our financial interest to be part of the group Perhaps the rest of Europe sees it differently.

I used 'we' meaning 'we' europeans rather than 'we' the british.


If indeed the free peoples of europe vote for a unitied states of europe then that would be fine; one would insist of course that a specific term allowed for any country to exit if they wished.

I am a little concerned that all the summits and most of the talking is about a banking issue and virtually nothing about 50% youth unemployment in many of the southern countries.

It's worth remembering that Germany was a democracy when it voted the Nazi into power. Many attribute this is the awful economic circumstances at the time.

We are already seeing the rise of various extremists parties in some of the countries.

I'm not sure that the peoples of europe see things that differently.

I'm not sure you and I have the same view of the breakup of Yugoslavia.

zagfles

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

You only have to look at our own United Kingdom to realise we struggle to transfer wealth from say south to north.

We don't struggle at all. The poorer parts of the UK are massively supported by the richer parts - tax and benefits rates are the same despite the fact the richer parts pay more in tax and get less in benefits (as they earn more and there is less unemployment) and vv for the poorer parts. Plus the local authority subsidy varies massively depending on the area, poorer areas getting much more.

I don't think most strong European countries feel that strong a bond that they are willing to prop their supposed brothers and sisters.

But the Germans have to understand that one of the reasons they are doing so well is the fact they have an artifically weaker currency than they would otherwise have. Without the single currency, the Mark would now be very strong and the Peseta, Lira etc would be very weak, thus helping Spain, Italy etc by reducing their labour costs and increasing Germany's.

The Euro has basically transferred jobs from Spain, Italy etc to Germany. The Germans have to realise they can't have their cake and eat it. They can't have all the advantages of the same currency as poorer areas of Europe, but not the disadvantage of having to subsidise them.

I think the only solution (other than the end of the Euro, which will be very messy) will be some sort of fiscal union of the Euro countries.

zagfles

martinthebandit wrote: »

I think you will find Spain is a very different kettle of fish to Greece.

Their level of debt is less than Germany's and they have already cut public spending for a start.

......... and the euro project cannot afford for Spain to fail, so they will get what they want

Yes the problems in Spain are that their labour costs have increased without the safety valve of their currency depreciating at the same time, and the property boom (caused in part by numpty Brits!). Unlike Greece it was the private sector's fault, not the public sector.