The best indicator of house prices

Pimperne1

Having scouted the HPC site the following was provided by LR just last month:

Repossessions are currently omitted from our House Price Index (HPI) as they are made under power of sale and subject to a court order. We currently exclude all sales subject to a court order as they can give a false representation of values in an area and are often not reflective of the full market value. The HPI also uses repeat sale regression (RSR) methodology, which compares the most recent sale of the property to a previous sale, if one of these was a forced sale, we would not be comparing ‘apples with apples’.

So I suppose its only if they are a repo at auction that they evade LR.

Needless to say the HPC boys are not happy with the current situation....

chucky

Pimperne1 wrote: »

I go for Land Registry all the time as it is based upon the same house selling again and again but the Nationwide Index, if they continue increasing market share, is a real contender for second place

The LR is probably the most comprehensive but none are perfect.

The favourite index on here is the one with the numbers that suit thei particular posters mindset each month. It's so obvious with some that they like different ones in different months if they don't suit their own negative agenda. Should expect that from many people on this forum though.

Pimperne1

chucky wrote: »

The LR is probably the most comprehensive but none are perfect.

The favourite index on here is the one with the numbers that suit thei particular posters mindset each month. It's so obvious with some that they like different ones in different months if they don't suit their own negative agenda. Should expect that from many people on this forum though.

Agreed but I think if we were all honest, rather than relying upon wishful thinking, we would accept that there was a bit of an over correction back in 2009 and prices have since bobbed up to the price below which they won't fall much (ie £160k). Prices could stay like this for a couple/few years but once the economic situation has stabilised we shall again, I think, see fairly substantial upward movement (say, in 2016 if not before). It has been argued on here very often but never very successfully that renting is better than buying - there are short periods when this is true but in the longer term you can't beat bricks and mortar to fund your retirement.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There's no other way to describe the majority of his posts these days. Which is a shame, as obviously he's a bright enough fellow.

But the constant doom-mongering and misleading statements are drawing attention, and not just from me. Posters on the Mortgage and house buying boards are seeing through him as well.

He got caught out badly the other day in the house buying board giving bad, and biased, advice and had to be corrected by a number of more knowledgeable posters.

Suppose you've never been wrong, and never been corrected?

<cough>

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Suppose you've never been wrong, and never been corrected?

I've been both.

But I admit it when I am.

And I don't troll the house buying board giving deliberately false information. :cool:

crash123

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Agreed but I think if we were all honest, rather than relying upon wishful thinking, we would accept that there was a bit of an over correction back in 2009 and prices have since bobbed up to the price below which they won't fall much (ie £160k). Prices could stay like this for a couple/few years but once the economic situation has stabilised we shall again, I think, see fairly substantial upward movement (say, in 2016 if not before). It has been argued on here very often but never very successfully that renting is better than buying - there are short periods when this is true but in the longer term you can't beat bricks and mortar to fund your retirement.

Not sure I agree with all of this but some of it. If interest rates are to stay low until 2017 as suggested on another thread, I don`t think there will be any movement upwards in houseprices as the economy will not have recovered.
I do a lot of auctions not just houses and from the general auctions the situation is not good. This is only from my experience of 20+ years of doing auctions so hopefully I will know from this when I think times are changing. You make your choices and hope that you got it right.

Have a nice jubilee bank holiday.

heirloom

What if house prices just sort of stay the same-ish, Hamish? Maybe they won't boom or crash but just trundle along basically unchanged like they have been doing for the last year for the next few years. That seems a slightely more realistic posibility to me but then I'm no economist.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

heirloom wrote: »

What if house prices just sort of stay the same-ish, Hamish? Maybe they won't boom or crash but just trundle along basically unchanged like they have been doing for the last year for the next few years. That seems a slightely more realistic posibility to me but then I'm no economist.

That's almost certainly what will happen.

For the next few years anyway...

But after that we'll see an almighty boom as the biggest house buying age generation in history, bigger even than the boomers, crashes into the biggest housing supply shortage in the last century.

With only one possible result, and it ain't falling prices....

heirloom

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That's almost certainly what will happen.

For the next few years anyway...

But after that we'll see an almighty boom as the biggest house buying age generation in history, bigger even than the boomers, crashes into the biggest housing supply shortage in the last century.

With only one possible result, and it ain't falling prices....

Which generation, people in their 20's you mean? I hadn't realised that there was a generation of young people that number more than the boomers, is that true?. If according to some other post predicting 5x birminghams population increase in the next few years and with high inflation I also find it difficult to see prices dropping much also. If the euro problems pass and lenders lighten up again I'd guess higher house prices is quite likely. Everything else is going up in price so why not houses? or am I missing something?

Thrugelmir

heirloom wrote: »

or am I missing something?

The fact that you think that the Euro problems will pass maybe........