Espagne...

purch

The_J wrote: »

This could all be fixed if Germany left and allowed the Euro to devalue massively.

Unfortunately, without Germany there is no EUR.

They might as well break the whole thing up, and allow everyone to revert to their own currency, and let them find their own level.

Remember the effect on the U.K. economy after we pulled out of the E.R.M. and allowed the £ to devalue to it's proper level.

The shot in the arm to the Club Med economies would be immediate and would go a long way to solve the whole crisis, or at least mitigate the worst of it.

P.S. I was in Barcelona over the weekend, and although there were still billions of "sweaty" tourists I found it remarkably easy to make 4 dinner reservations at the kind of places you used to really struggle to get into (Cinq Sentis, Alkimia, Gaig & Moo) and the queues at some of the top Tapas Bars were much shorter or non existant than usual.

michaels

Is it an ERM exit / Argentina type situation where a devaluation with a growing world economy = a boom or is it more like the 30s where there is no external demand to take advantage of despite a more competitive exchange rate?

Note the news are suggesting that the Greeks are still playing a 'who blinks first' game. After all, the greeks default and they lose what they owe, the greeks default and the Germans lose what they are owed....

The_J

purch wrote: »

Unfortunately, without Germany there is no EUR.

They might as well break the whole thing up, and allow everyone to revert to their own currency, and let them find their own level.

Remember the effect on the U.K. economy after we pulled out of the E.R.M. and allowed the £ to devalue to it's proper level.

The shot in the arm to the Club Med economies would be immediate and would go a long way to solve the whole crisis, or at least mitigate the worst of it.

Let's be clear. This is a monetary imbalance issue. Generali was spot on, if money disappeared tomorrow society would continue, there is no breakdown here. Skynet has not become self aware.

Germany is the powerhouse of the Euro, if they left of course would not continue in the way that we know it but the Euro is just money. Money is just what we say it is, money is trust.

Germany is the engine, but it's a V8. It's turbocharged. It's got a lot of gas in the tank but it's stuck in a wooden truck. Greece is a wing mirror attached with blue tac. Ireland is the bonnet. Italy are the wheels. France is the body but the V8 is straining to get out, it's vibrating the whole thing, it's destroying the various components. Take the V8 out and make it pedal powered, suddenly things are much more sedate.

That makes it sound simple, to complete the analogy the V8 would have to be extracted by driving off a cliff and hitting every boulder on the way down.

Pobby

Not sounding too clever is it. Not sure my mates in Eire are having a ball right now. With properties in Dublin going for about a third of their boom value. Possibility of some properties being demolished and an horrific story from a a mate in a town in Co. Cork regarding the price the price a bank would would take on what was a very expensive home, not very encouraging.

mr_fishbulb

The_J wrote: »

Greece, Spain and Portugal imploding will be savage but I think the Euro could survive that.

Just need someone from Group D now - Who will it be next?

England, France, Sweden, or the Ukraine?

Generali

Wookster wrote: »

It seems like it's all coming to a head again.

mr_fishbulb wrote: »

Just need someone from Group D now - Who will it be next?

England, France, Sweden, or the Ukraine?

Gotta be the French. Hollande appears to be delusional.

oldvicar

Quite by chance to re-finance I've found the answer:
Flamenco dancers are far the finest bet.
There was one who whispered "Ooh Hasta La Vista"
Each time I kissed him behind the castanet.
He rattled his maracas close to me
In no time I was trembling at the knees

Oh this year I'm off to sunny Spain
Y Viva Espana
I'm taking the Costa Brava plane
Y Viva Espana
If you'd like to !!!!k a matador
In some cool Cabana
And meet senoritas by the score
Espana por favor

La la la lalalala la
Y Viva Espana
La la la lalalala la
Y Viva Espana


http://www.maxilyrics.com/black-lace-viva-espana-video-47af.html

pqrdef

purch wrote: »

Remember the effect on the U.K. economy after we pulled out of the E.R.M. and allowed the £ to devalue to it's proper level.

The shot in the arm to the Club Med economies would be immediate and would go a long way to solve the whole crisis, or at least mitigate the worst of it.

Unpegging a currency when you're AAA-rated is rather different from trying to establish a new currency when you're already junk. The time is long gone when the Greeks could have made an orderly switch to a local currency. Any currency they might issue now would be worthless and useless, backed only by the credit of bankrupt institutions.

So they've got no option but to carry on using a foreign currency until they can rebuild their economy the hard way.

AndyGuil

pqrdef wrote: »

Unpegging a currency when you're AAA-rated is rather different from trying to establish a new currency when you're already junk. The time is long gone when the Greeks could have made an orderly switch to a local currency. Any currency they might issue now would be worthless and useless, backed only by the credit of bankrupt institutions.

So they've got no option but to carry on using a foreign currency until they can rebuild their economy the hard way.

Not if they default on the debt. They can't pay it so that is the way it is going tp go. Default plus new currency means a fresh start and no junk status. Iceland are a prime example.

The_J

The concern is not that Greece will leave the Euro. The concern is that if they do will they bounce back and recover quickly? If that happens... there will be a queue of countries lining up to leave.